The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting 10-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jesus Luzardo ($10,800) Miami Marlins (-275) vs. Colorado Rockies
The 25-year-old Jesus Luzardo is 8-5 through 20 starts this season with a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He is sixth in the National League with 131 strikeouts.
His last start was cut short to just four innings, which produced his second-lowest fantasy outing of the season. He had three straight performances with 28-plus DraftKings points prior to that outing. Luzardo is better at home, with a 2.43 ERA and 0.98 on the year.
PlateIQ shows the Rockies lineup with a low fantasy projection today in a ballpark that punishes both lefties and righties at the plate. Colorado has four hitters in the lineup with strikeout rates above 28%.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Taj Bradley ($7,600) Tampa Bay Rays (-130) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tampa rookie right-hander Taj Bradley has had an up-and-down season. Overall, he is 5-6 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He is a volatile proposition in the pitching spot for lineups, but on a good day he can provide a lot of bargain value.
Bradley has a strong 30.6 K% and 22.7% whiff rate. He has three starts on the year with at least nine strikeouts.
He’s had problems giving up home runs and extra-base hits on the year. The Orioles have a low park factor in Tampa on Sunday. If Bradley can avoid the long bomb, he has a good shot at delivering a strong fantasy total for the price.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Lucas Giolito ($9,600) Chicago White Sox (+125) at Minnesota Twins
Lucas Giolito is projected with the second-highest ceiling on the slate, behind Luzardo. The White Sox right-hander is 6-6 on the year with a 3.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Giolito is coming off his worst start of the year, giving up three home runs and eight earned runs to the Mets on July 18. Prior to that start, he gave up more than two earned runs just once in a span of seven starts.
The upside is there for Giolito. Every Twins hitter has a strikeout rate of at least 20%, with five hitters over 28%. The downside is also there with a 49.7 hart hit % and elevated home run projection today for the Twins.
You can also target the Twins’ propensity to strike out with Giolito’s strikeouts prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks look to avoid a sweep and break a three-game losing streak Sunday in Cincinnati. The models like them to have their way at the plate against Luke Weaver. Weaver has started 16 games this season, but he has only notched a 2-2 record, with no starts going longer than five innings since May. He has a 7.22 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season.
In his first full big league season, Corbin Carroll is excelling at the plate. He is batting .281/.360/.541 with 20 home runs and 52 RBIs. Add on his 29 stolen bases and Carroll is one of the most dynamic fantasy hitters on the slate.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte fall in the $5,000-range on the stack. Walker has struggled in July with a .172 average, but overall he is batting .261/.337/.510. Marte showed his ceiling potential Friday with two home runs, a triple, four RBIs, and 40 DraftKings fantasy points.
Jake McCarthy and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. round out the stack. Gurriel Jr. offers more power with a .233 ISO and .329 wOBA, but McCarthy should see plenty of opportunities in the six-hole with runners on base Sunday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
TJ Friedl OF ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Jose Ruiz)
Vegas expects runs to be scored early and often in Cincinnati with one of the highest totals on the slate. TJ Friedl should be a core piece of that offensive production for the Reds.
Friedl is batting .289/.359/.443 on the season with seven home runs and 33 RBIs. He’s added 16 stolen bases to his totals.
After a strong April and May, he has sputtered through the summer, batting .215/.292/.308 in July. Friedl homered Saturday and added a double to post 18 DraftKings points.
The Reds face Jose Ruiz, who is making his first start of the season after four rough relief appearances. He has a 22.09 ERA in 3.2 innings.
Geraldo Perdomo 2B/SS ($4,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds (Luke Weaver)
Do you see a trend yet in the models for Sunday’s slate? This Diamondbacks/Reds matchup is poised for fireworks.
Geraldo Perdomo is another option to grab for a piece of this game. The Diamondbacks leadoff hitter is having by far the best season of his young career. Perdomo is batting .276/.384/.407 with five home runs, 36 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases.
The ceiling is capped for Perdomo, but he is a consistent producer at the plate with three multi-hit games in his last six.
Marcus Semien 2B ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan)
The 11-year veteran is having one of his best Major League seasons in 2023 for the Rangers. Semien is hitting .272/.340/.449 on the year with 14 home runs and 60 RBIs.
The Rangers have a high home run projection against Emmett Sheehan of the Dodgers, and Semien should put the ball in play a lot with his keen batting eye and low 12.7% strikeout rate.
Sheehan is making the sixth start of his Major League career and comes in with a 3-0 record and 4.91 ERA. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts.
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