The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Kevin Gausman ($11,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-185) vs. Boston Red Sox
In 17 starts, Kevin Gausman has 14 solid performances where he’s given up fewer than three earned runs. Those are pretty good odds for fantasy owners. In the other three starts, he gave up an average of seven earned runs in each outing.
Gausman is 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the season. He is allowing a .281 wOBA and 36.2 sweet spot %.
The strikeouts have gone up this year for Gausman, with a 32.7 K% that ranks in the top 7% of the league. He has three 30+ DraftKings-point totals in his last six starts.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Ranger Suarez ($8,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-275) vs. Washington Nationals
Vegas likes Ranger Suarez and the Phillies to shut down the Nationals on Sunday; Washington has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate.
Suarez is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA in nine starts after making his season debut on May 13. He started off slow in May with a 7.13 ERA in his first four outings.
June was a different story. Over his last five starts, Suarez is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in 33.1 innings. He has six straight positive Plus/Minus fantasy results and four straight 20+ DraftKings-point totals. At $8,000, Suarez has the highest bargain rating on the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Andrew Abbott ($9,200) Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
One of the hottest rookies of 2023, Andrew Abbott has sprinted out of the gates in his first five Major League starts.
He is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Abbott has a low .229 wOBA and .196 xBA, and his strikeouts are beginning to uptick with 18 over his last two starts.
Abbott’s salary has steadily risen from the minimum $4,000 on June 5 to the current $9,200. He has a +61.7 Plus/Minus total over his five starts, which leaves plenty of room for his production to continue outpacing his price increases. He is still a bargain value at this pricing level.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies have the leading stack in the model Sunday at home against Washington and right-hander Trevor Williams. Williams is 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 16 starts.
PlateIQ breaks down the Phillies stack with Bryce Harper leading the team with a .399 wOBA against righties. Kyle Schwarber has the highest ISO against righties at .217. Both Harper and Schwarber are projected over 10 fantasy points Sunday.
J.T. Realmuto has a knack for extra-base hits, even with a relatively low eight home runs on the season. He leads the National League with five triples in 2023 and has added 19 doubles. He leads all catchers with 10 stolen bases to round out his fantasy potential.
The stack finishes with perennial All-Star Trea Turner and veteran Nick Castellanos. Turner is having a down year, batting .252/.308/.389, but he still carries a high ceiling. On the other hand, Castellanos is having a career year, batting .314/.358/.505 with 11 home runs and 52 RBIs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Mookie Betts OF/SS ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
The highest-rated non-Phillies hitter on the slate is Mookie Betts. On the season, Betts is hitting .271/.374/.556 with 22 home runs and 56 RBIs.
Betts improved his season totals with a strong June. He hit .309/.398/.638 in the month with nine home runs and a 1.036 OPS. Even better, Betts averaged 26.5 DraftKings points over his last four games with a huge 46-point performance on Friday in the first game of the series.
The Dodgers wrap up a three-game set with the Royals against Brady Singer. Singer is 4-7 with a 5.88 ERA on the season. Stay in the flames Sunday with Betts and the Dodgers.
Jose Altuve 2B ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney)
In a down year, Jose Altuve remains high in the ratings for fantasy value. He is batting .265/.368/.469 on the year with five home runs and 17 RBIs.
Altuve is above league average with a .364 wOBA and .421 xSLG. Prior to his zero-point game yesterday, he had four straight games with 10+ DraftKings points to end June on a high note. Over his last 10 games, he has an average +2.05 Plus/Minus rating.
The Astros face Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney. Heaney is 5-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 15 starts. He allowed six runs in his last outing and has not topped six strikeouts in a game since May 14.
You can also target Heaney by taking the under on his strikeout prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Jack Suwinski OF ($3,300 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
On the lower end of the salary chart, Jack Suwinski provides some bargain value for fantasy owners on Sunday’s slate.
In his second big-league season, Suwinski is batting .228/.351/.498 with 17 home runs and 42 RBIs. He adds some additional fantasy value on the basepaths with seven stolen bags.
Suwinski is a hit-or-miss proposal, both in fantasy lineups and the batter’s box. He has a high 31.7 K% to go with a high 15.5 BB%. He has put the ball in play over his last four games with a positive Plus/Minus result in each.
The Pirates face righty Colin Rea for the Brewers. Rea is 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA on the season. He was 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA in June.
