The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Scherzer ($11,000) Texas Rangers (-200) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Max Scherzer is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA since joining the Rangers at the beginning of the month. The marks are much better than his season totals of 9-4 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
PlateIQ looks all green for Scherzer on Sunday against the Brewers. The projected Milwaukee lineup features just two high-wOBA hitters and a .145 team ISO.
Scherzer’s strikeout rate is down from previous years, but it’s still a valuable 28.4%, including 26 strikeouts in his last three starts. With the Brewers’ 23.3 K% at the plate today, there is plenty of ceiling opportunity for fantasy owners.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Logan Allen ($8,800) Cleveland Guardians (-107) vs. Detroit Tigers
Sunday’s slate does not feature many obvious bargain options on the mound. Logan Allen is an interesting play against a Tigers lineup with one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate.
The rookie Allen is 6-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He is near league averages in most advanced stats, allowing a .318 wOBA and .408 xSLG with a 22.9 K%.
Allen has excelled in August with a 1.59 ERA and 2-1 record in three starts. He has a solid matchup against the Tigers with a team .301 wOBA and .146 ISO.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Brown ($9,300) Houston Astros (-185) vs. Seattle Mariners
In his first full major league season, 24-year-old Hunter Brown is 9-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 22 starts.
Brown struggles at times to avoid bat barrels, allowing a 50.3 hard hit %, but he makes up for that with his 53.6% ground-ball rate.
The ceiling potential may be a bit lower for Brown. He hasn’t topped 20 DraftKings points since June 13, but the Mariners matchup looks strong with just two high-ISO and three high-wOBA hitters in the lineup.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays will try to take the rubber match Sunday in Cincinnati against Hunter Greene and the Reds. Greene will be making his first start since June 17. On the season, he is 2-4 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Bo Bichette leads the stack in salary with his impressive .319/.351/.491 hitting totals in 2023. He is second in the American League in batting average with a .352 wOBA and .510 xSLG.
Just $100 cheaper in salary, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had an up-and-down season. He is well below his mammoth numbers in 2021 and 2022. He is batting .263/.342/.432 with 18 home runs and 72 RBIs. He has just one positive Plus/Minus result in his last 13 games.
George Springer has the second highest fantasy projection on the team Sunday, with his max exit velocity in the top 3% of hitters.
On the other hand, Whit Merrifield makes his hay through spraying the ball around the diamond and using his speed. With one of the lowest max exit velocity ratings in the league, Merrifield still bats .300 with 23 stolen bases.
Daulton Varsho is the lottery ticket of the stack with his .221/.283/.379 batting totals. He has a +1.43 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
You can also target Greene in his return to the mound by taking the under on his strikeouts prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($6,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants (Jakob Junis)
There are few hitters that provide the daily fantasy upside of Ronald Acuna Jr., who is well on his way to a National League MVP award.
On the season, Acuna Jr. is batting .333/.418/.573 and leads the National League with 111 runs scored and 55 stolen bases. He has two home runs in his last four games.
Reliever Jakob Junis gets the nod to start Sunday for the Giants. On the season, he has made two starts and 32 total appearances with a 3-3 record and 4.10 ERA.
Stuart Fairchild OF ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Hyun Jin Ryu)
On the season, Stuart Fairchild is batting .230/.325/.390 with five home runs and 27 RBIs. He is better against left-handers with a .411 wOBA and .232 ISO, and he gets a lefty on the mound today.
In his last 10 games, Fairchild has a +0.86 Plus/Minus rating. He is projected as a top bargain play Sunday at $2,800 in DraftKings salary.
Blue Jays starter Hyun Jin Ryu made his season debut on August 1 and is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts. He has a 1.07 WHIP and eight strikeouts in 14 innings.
Marcus Semien 2B ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
Though his home run totals are nowhere near his 45 mark in 2021, Marcus Semien is having one of his best seasons at the plate for the Rangers.
He is swatting .278/.350/.465 with 19 home runs and 79 RBIs. He has solid ceiling potential with three games with at least 20 DraftKings points already in August.
The Rangers face Milwaukee right-hander Adrian Houser on Sunday. Houser is 4-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He allows a .327 wOBA with a relatively low 18.6 K%.
