The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting eight-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($11,500) New York Yankees (-120) at Miami Marlins
The Yankees stud workhorse has pitched into the seventh inning or later in all but one start since the end of May. On the season, Gerrit Cole is 10-3 with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
PlateIQ shows a strong matchup for Cole against the Marlins in a ballpark that is tough on both lefties and righties. This Miami projected lineup has a low .145 team ISO and a respectable .319 team wOBA on the season. Although the impressive Luis Arraez has an incredibly low 4.5 K%, four Marlins batters have strikeout rates over 24.5%.
Cole had a strong June and July, but he’s coming off a rough start where he gave up four earned runs to the White Sox. He should be motivated to bounce back Sunday with a solid matchup.
You can also target the non-Arraez Marlins’ propensity to strike out with Cole’s strikeouts prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Chase Silseth ($6,000) Los Angeles Angels (+130) at Houston Astros
The Angels recalled Chase Silseth from Triple-A on July 19. While splitting time in the minors, he has amassed a solid 3-1 record and 3.72 ERA in his 12 appearances with the Angels this season.
Silseth makes his fifth start of the season against a potent Astros lineup that is featured below as Sunday’s top stack. That said, the model likes Silseth as a potential contrarian play in tournament lineups.
Since rejoining the Angels, Silseth has allowed four earned runs in 17.2 innings of work. He made fantasy owners ecstatic in his last start by tallying a surprising 12 strikeouts against the Mariners in seven innings. There is fantasy potential here with expected low ownership Sunday.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zach Eflin ($9,700) Tampa Bay Rays (-185) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The 29-year-old righty is having by far the best season of his big-league career in 2023 for the Rays. Zach Eflin leads the American League in wins at 12-6 with a 3.34 ERA and minuscule 0.97 WHIP.
The Guardians projected lineup boasts just one high ISO and three high wOBA hitters. They have a low home-run projection Sunday against Eflin at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.
Eflin has three positive Plus/Minus results in his last four starts, with all three tallying 25 or more DraftKings points. The Guardians do not strike out much with a 17.7 K% in Sunday’s lineup. That said, Eflin should be able to keep the ball in the park Sunday for a useful fantasy performance.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Houston Astros look to post their third straight 11-run win in the final game of the series against Chase Silseth and the Los Angeles Angels. Making his fifth start of the season, Silseth is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season.
The top five batters in the Astros lineup make up this potent stack with an average .394 wOBA and .243 ISO between them. Yordan Alvarez leads the stack in price at $6,300 and with a .301 ISO. Alvarez is 11th in the American League with 21 home runs.
Fellow outfielder Kyle Tucker may be the hottest bat in the lineup with a +4.83 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has four home runs and 14 RBIs in that span along with three games with at least 25 DraftKings points.
The batting numbers continue to impress for longtime Astros second baseman Jose Altuve. He sits at .320/.418/.547 in a shortened 2023 with nine home runs in 47 games.
Alex Bregman and Yainer Diaz wrap up Sunday’s top stack. Bregman sits in the top 10% of hitters in both K% and BB% with his keen batting eye. In his rookie campaign, Diaz has 15 long bombs to go with his .276/.294/.516 hitting marks.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
CJ Abrams SS ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Oakland Athletics (Ken Waldichuk)
Young speedster CJ Abrams is third in the National League with 29 stolen bases. He adds that fantasy scoring potential on the bases to his .257/.307/.416 batting totals at the plate.
We saw the ceiling potential of Abrams on August 6, as he tallied four hits — including one home run — and stole two bases for 37 DraftKings points against the Reds.
The Nationals take on Athletics lefty Ken Waldichuk on Sunday in the capitol district. Waldichuk is 2-7 with a 6.30 ERA on the season. Washington has one of the highest implied run totals on Sunday’s slate.
Whit Merrifield 2B/OF ($4,500 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
Blue Jays veteran Whit Merrifield is having a strong campaign in his first full season with Toronto. He is hitting .297/.343/.426 on the season with 11 home runs and 21 stolen bases.
Merrifield is on a five-game hit streak with two multi-hit games in that stretch. He has a +0.78 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Cubs will start right-hander Jameson Taillon on Sunday in Toronto. Taillon is 7-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the season. This is a good spot for Merrifield in fantasy lineups.
Bryan Reynolds OF ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson)
Bryan Reynolds enters Sunday’s game in the top 10% of Major League hitters with a .286 xBA and 49.2 hard hit %. In total, Reynolds is batting .271/.336/.458 with 15 home runs and 54 RBIs for the Pirates in 2023.
He has been on a tear lately with seven games of double-digit DraftKings points over his last 12 games. So far in August, Reynolds is batting .381/.447/.643 with three homers.
Stay in the flames Sunday by adding Reynolds to your lineup against Reds lefty Brandon Williamson. The rookie is 4-2 with a 4.54 ERA in 15 starts this season.
