The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider has ascended the starting pitcher ranks at lightning speed, and he’s arguably the top starter in all of baseball in just his second season. He was outstanding as a rookie, pitching to a 2.67 ERA and 1.83 FIP across 131.2 innings, and he struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings.
He’s off to another phenomenal start in 2023, posting a 2.57 ERA and 14.66 K/9 through his first six starts. He struggled a bit vs. the Mets in his last outing, but the Mets have been Strider’s kryptonite since joining the Braves rotation. He owns a 5.03 ERA against them in 19.2 career innings, but he’s dominated basically everyone else.
Strider draws a tough matchup vs. the Orioles on Saturday, who rank seventh in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. However, he’s still getting a ton of respect from Vegas. Strider is the largest favorite on the slate at -250, and his 3.2 opponent implied run total is the lowest of the day. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.31 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Of course, what really makes Strider special is his strikeout ability. He has at least eight strikeouts in all six starts this season, including 13 two starts ago vs. the Marlins. His 8.62 K Prediction is easily the top mark among Saturday’s starters, with no one else above even 6.46.
Strider is expensive across the industry, but he’s the clear top pitcher on the slate. He leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection by a wide margin, and he also stands out as one of the better pure values. There are enough cheap options available on offense that you should be able to build around Strider pretty easily.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tommy Henry checks in with the top projected Plus/Minus at pitcher on DraftKings using THE BAT. He’s made just two previous starts this season, and his numbers are downright terrifying. He owns a 6.52 ERA and 5.43 FIP, and he’s racked up more walks than strikeouts.
However, Henry has also done a good job of limiting the damage on balls in play. He ranks in the 97th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate, and he’s in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity. Those figures have propelled Henry to an xERA of 4.14, which is much more palatable. Henry also had a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Triple-A before getting called up this season, so there are plenty of reasons to believe in some improvement moving forward.
Henry is dirt-cheap at just $5,000 on DraftKings, and he’s a respectable -130 favorite vs. the Nationals. Pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.22 on DraftKings, and Henry doesn’t need to do much to potentially pay off his current price tag. If he’s able to pitch five innings and qualify for a win, that could be enough to make him one of the best values at the position.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Blake Snell stands out as a fantastic tournament option on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. Snell has had a rough start to the year, but he continues to generate plenty of swings and misses. He’s on pace to average double-digit strikeouts per nine innings for the sixth straight year, and he has a sneaky-good matchup for strikeouts on Saturday. The Dodgers’ offense has a big reputation, but they are not nearly the same unit this season. They rank just 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws, and they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in that split. Snell is projected for just 12% ownership despite ranking second in projected Plus/Minus and ceiling, making him an elite leverage option on this slate.
Alex Cobb has completely transformed himself over the past few years. He was a gas can in his final few years with the Orioles, but he’s been outstanding since signing with the Giants in 2022. He’s off to another excellent start this season, pitching to a 2.43 ERA and an 8.91 K/9 through his first six outings. Cobb ranks second on the slate with a 3.8 opponent implied run total and -175 moneyline odds, and he’s another pitcher with a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Reid Detmers has not made the leap that some were expecting to start the 2023 season, but he is on track for a new career-high in strikeouts. He’s averaged 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings through his first five starts, and his 27.0% strikeout rate puts him in the 70th percentile. He ranks second on Saturday’s slate in terms of K Prediction, sandwiched between Strider and Snell. His Vegas data vs. the Rangers isn’t ideal, but he has some appeal as a low-ownership GPP target.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
For the second-straight day, the Royals stand out as the highest-projected stack per THE BAT. They managed to put up eight runs on Friday, but the A’s ultimately scored 12 in what was easily the highest scoring game of the day.
More fireworks are expected on Saturday, with the total in this contest sitting at 10.5 runs. The Royals are the favorites, and their 6.1-run implied team total ranks first on the slate by a wide margin. No other team is implied for more than 5.4 runs, so KC stands out as the clear top team target.
The A’s will have left-hander Ken Waldichuk on the mound, and he has been absolutely pummeled to start the year. He’s pitched to a 7.26 ERA and a 7.39 FIP, and he’s allowed an average of 2.9 homers per nine innings. Unsurprisingly, most of his struggles have come against right-handed batters, who have posted a .425 wOBA against him.
You could certainly opt for a conventional 1-5 stack in this spot, but THE BAT prefers swapping the left-handed M.J. Melendez for righty Hunter Dozier. Dozier is expected to bat seventh in the lineup, but he’s posted an excellent 137 wRC+ against southpaws this season. He’s also coming off one of his best games of the season on Friday, finishing with two walks, a double, and a triple for 21.0 DraftKings points.
Dozier is also showing a bit of value in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Stacking the Royals 1-2-3-4-7 should definitely help with ownership, and it also makes this stack insanely cheap. It’s only going to cost you $17,600, so it can very easily be paired with Strider.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brent Rooker OF ($3,700 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
The A’s won’t garner as much attention as the Royals on this slate, but they also have plenty of upside in this matchup. If you haven’t been paying attention, Rooker has been one of the best hitters in baseball through his first 26 games. He’s already mashed 10 homers, and he’s posted a gaudy 218 wRC+. To put that in perspective, Aaron Judge had a 207 wRC+ when he hit 62 homers last year. Can Rooker keep up that pace? Probably not, but he ranks in the 99th percentile in xwOBA, 99th percentile in xSLG, and 98th percentile in barrel rate. It appears as though the A’s have found a diamond in the rough, and there’s no reason he should still be priced at $3,700 on DraftKings.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox (Corey Kluber)
Schwarber stands out as one of the best values of the day at just $3,100 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using the blended set. Schwarber has had a quiet start to the year, but he’s capable of flipping the switch in an instance. A multi-homer game is always on the table for him, particularly against right-handed pitchers. Kluber has surrendered an average of 2.45 homers per nine innings through his first six starts, so don’t be surprised if Schwarber puts one over the wall on Saturday.
Jose Abreu 1B ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzalez)
Abreu is off to a dreadful start at the dish in his first year with the Astros, posting just a 45 wRC+ through his first 135 plate appearances. He was at 137 with the White Sox last season, and it’s hard to imagine he’s declined that much in just one year. He’s a solid progression candidate moving forward, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits Saturday vs. Gonzalez. Abreu has owned southpaws for his career, boasting a 144 wRC+ in those matchups. This feels like a strong buy-low opportunity.
