The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
The battle for the top spot at pitcher on Saturday comes down to two players: Framber Valdez and Luis Castillo. Valdez is the more expensive option, particularly on DraftKings, but Castillo actually grades out better in THE BAT. His median and ceiling projections are nearly three points higher, giving him a massive edge in projected Plus/Minus.
Castillo has been excellent in his first full year with Seattle, pitching to a 2.97 ERA and a 3.08 FIP through his first 10 starts. His production has dipped slightly of late, but he’s had some tough matchups against the Astros, Rangers, and Red Sox. He had a much more palatable matchup last time out vs. the A’s, and he bounced back with eight strikeouts over six scoreless innings.
Castillo draws one of the best possible matchups Saturday vs. the Pirates. They’re 19th in wRC+ for the year, but they’ve dipped all the way to 26th over the past 30 days. They also boast the eighth-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers over that time frame.
Castillo’s Vegas data in this matchup is outstanding, ranking second on the slate with -225 moneyline odds and a 3.1-run opponent implied total. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.25 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Castillo also stands out as the best pure values among the high-end pitchers on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
MLB DFS Value Pick
It’s a rough slate to try to pay down at SP2. Finding anyone of merit at less than $7,500 on DraftKings is a challenge, but Dean Kremer is a possible exception. Kremer isn’t a great pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not a gas can either. He’s posted a 4.61 ERA across 10 starts, and he’s trending in the right direction. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven outings, including each of his past four. Those starts have come against the Braves, Rays, Angels, and Blue Jays, so he’s bested some talented opponents as well.
Kremer is going to have his hands full once again on Saturday. He’s taking on the Rangers, who have been one of the best offenses in baseball recently. They’re up to second in wRC+ vs. right-handers for the year, and they scored 12 runs vs. the Rangers on Friday.
That said, the Rangers are not without their warts. They don’t grade out quite as well in expected metrics as they do in actual metrics, so they’ve been a bit fortunate to start the year. They also strike out at a solid clip, ranking eighth in strikeout rate vs. right-handers.
Kremer’s price tag has dipped to just $6,000 on DraftKings after peaking at $7,200 two starts ago. That means he doesn’t have to do much to potentially return value on this slate. He’s also listed as a slight favorite in the betting markets, giving him a bit of win upside. He ranks third in THE BAT in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s your best bet if you’re looking to go cheap on Saturday.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Valdez may trail Castillo in THE BAT, but he is definitely still in play vs. the A’s. His Vegas data in this matchup is downright elite: -350 moneyline odds, 2.9-run opponent implied total. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.31, and they’ve posted a Consistency Rating of greater than 66%. The only thing holding Valdez back is that the A’s have been far better against southpaws than right-handers this season. They rank 14th in wRC+ and 19th in strikeout rate in that split, so his matchup isn’t nearly as good as it might seem on paper.
Corbin Burnes continues to get the benefit of the doubt in THE BAT. He hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he has in previous years, particularly from a strikeout perspective. That said, he does have 19 strikeouts over his past 17 innings, so it’s possible he’s gotten back on track. He’s in a great spot for strikeouts on Saturday vs. the Giants. They own the third-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers for the year, and their projected lineup owns the worst splits-adjusted strikeout rate on Saturday’s slate. Burnes leads all pitchers with a 7.51 K Prediction, making him an ideal GPP target at just $8,300.
Zach Wheeler is one of my favorite tournament options on this slate. Like Burnes, he hasn’t been able to recapture his form from the past few seasons, but his metrics suggest he’s been unlucky. His 2.90 FIP is significantly better than his 4.11 ERA, and he’s still averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings. That gives him plenty of room for improvement moving forward. The Braves are a tough matchup on paper, but their offense hasn’t been nearly as good as you might think vs. right-handed pitchers. They’re just 17th in wRC+ in that split, and they also have an above-average strikeout rate. Wheeler’s ownership in this matchup should be very reasonable, making him a very solid pivot.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals aren’t typically thought of as a good offense to target in DFS, ranking just 26th in the league in runs per game. That said, they have some appeal on Saturday. They’re currently implied for 4.9 runs vs. Josiah Gray and the Nationals, tied for the second-highest mark on the slate. That’s tied with the Braves and trails only the Astros, and both of those offenses are significantly more expensive.
Gray has shown some significant improvement in his second full year with the Nationals, which is not surprising for a former top prospect. However, he’s also been very fortunate. His 2.65 ERA is way below his 4.94 xFIP, and he continues to struggle with control. In fact, his 4.37 BB/9 puts him on pace for his worst career mark in that department.
Gray also isn’t expected to go very deep in this game using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Once Gray departs, the Royals will have plenty of chances to score runs vs. the Nationals relievers. They own the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball.
Even though the Royals haven’t put a ton of runs on the board yet, they do have some interesting young pieces. Bobby Witt Jr. possesses a tantalizing fantasy skill set, ranking in the 100th percentile in sprint speed and 93rd percentile in max exit velocity. He’s the type of player who can easily have multiple 30/30 seasons in his future, and he has nine homers and 15 steals already this year.
M.J. Melendez strikes out a ton, but when he makes contact, the ball tends to go a long way. He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 97th percentile in hard-hit rate. If he can put the bat on the ball a bit more moving forward, the results should follow.
The rest of the stack is rounded out by Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino – two batters with the splits advantage vs. Gray – and one of the best offensive catchers in baseball in Salvador Perez. It’s also very possible to pair the Royals with two midrange pitchers, which is ideal on a slate without a great value option.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Corey Dickerson OF ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
The Nationals also have some appeal in this matchup, and Dickerson stands out as an excellent value option across the industry. He went yard on Friday, and he’s historically been a productive hitter against right-handed pitchers. Singer is one of the most exploitable right-handers in baseball, pitching to a 7.48 ERA and a 6.79 xERA through 10 starts this season. Unsurprisingly, Singer’s biggest struggles have come against lefties, who have posted a .402 wOBA against him.
Jose Abreu 1B ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (Hogan Harris)
I completely understand if you’re ready to just completely write off Abreu. He’s been nothing short of a disaster in his first year with the Astros, posting a dismal 48 wRC+ across 204 plate appearances. He’s yet to homer with his new squad, and he looks nothing like the player who previously won an MVP with the White Sox. His Statcast data doesn’t paint a pretty picture either, so it’s hard to get too excited about a bounceback. Still, Abreu has always crushed left-handed pitchers, and Hogan’s first taste of big-league action went about as poorly as possible. He surrendered six earned runs and recorded just a single out and his only other appearance this year. The Astros also lead the slate in implied team total, and Abreu is expected to be in the heart of their lineup. Maybe this is the spot where he finally breaks out.
Trea Turner SS ($5,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton)
Turner has not had the start to his Phillies’ tenure he was hoping for, especially after putting up massive numbers at the World Baseball Classic. That said, his price tag has dipped to just $2,800 on FanDuel, which is simply too cheap for such a talented player. It results in a 99% Bargain Rating, and Turner still possesses blazing speed. He’s in the 100th percentile for sprint speed, so he should be able to pile up the steals if he can get on base a bit more moving forward.
