The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a nine-game slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
There are a bunch of high-end starters to choose from on Saturday’s slate, with six pitchers priced above $8,900 on DraftKings. That said, it’s hard to look past Hunter Brown as the top option.
Brown was billed as a top pitching prospect entering the 2023 season, and he has looked the part so far. He’s pitched to a 3.43 ERA and a 3.48 FIP across his first eight starts while striking out 9.47 batters per nine innings. His results have been a bit inconsistent, but he’s gone for at least 21.96 DraftKings points in four of his past seven outings.
What sets Brown apart from the rest of the field is his matchup. He’s taking on the A’s, who have been the worst team in baseball this season. Most of their struggles stem from their pitching staff, but their offense has plenty of issues as well. Notably, they own the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers while ranking 22nd in wRC+.
Unsurprisingly, Brown’s Vegas data in this spot is superb. He’s a massive -300 favorite, and his opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs also ranks first on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.64 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Brown also stands out from a strikeout perspective, with his 6.93 K Prediction ranking second on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Brandon Pfaadt struggled mightily in his first two big-league starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs across 9.2 innings. However, he has a big-time pedigree, entering the year as the No. 21 overall prospect per FanGraphs. He bounced back with a much stronger showing in his third start, limiting the Giants to just one hit and one run over five innings pitched.
Pfaadt also struck out five batters in that contest, which is something he should be able to do pretty regularly. He routinely posted a double-digit K/9 in the minors, and he’s capable of missing bats with each of his pitches.
Pfaadt is in a good spot to keep the positive momentum going Saturday vs. the Pirates. After a solid start to the year, their offense has been downright pitiful of late. They’re dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days, and they have the second-highest strikeout rate in that split over that time frame. They’ve started to show signs of life recently, scoring 21 runs over their past two games, but they scored three runs or fewer in 13 of their previous 14 games. Their projected lineup also boasts just a .295 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is tied for the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Pfaadt’s Vegas data doesn’t jump off the page, but we don’t need a dominant outing from him at his current salary. He posted a +7.07 Plus/Minus in his last contest, and he was $800 more expensive on that slate. He could definitely repeat that production vs. the Pirates.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Aaron Nola has not looked like his usual dominant self to start the year, but he has started to turn things around. He’s posted at least 21.3 DraftKings points in two of his past four starts, with the exceptions coming against the Dodgers and the Rockies at Coors. His two strong outings were against the Blue Jays and Astros, who aren’t exactly pushovers either. Nola’s matchup vs. the Cubs is a bit of a mixed bag, with the Cubs’ lineup ranking eighth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. However, they also strikeout at a decent clip, with their projected lineup boasting a 29.9% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Nola leads all pitchers with a 7.52 K Prediction, giving him the top ceiling projection in THE BAT.
Logan Webb is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, and he’s not someone that I typically target in tournaments. He struck out just 7.63 batters per nine innings last year, and his K/9 is below 9.0 once again this season. It’s hard to justify paying $10,600 for a pitcher who doesn’t have big strikeout potential. That said, that may not matter much vs. the Marlins. Their offense has struggled mightily against right-handers, ranking 25th in wRC+ and 10th in strikeout rate. That gives Webb a bit more upside than usual. They’re also implied for just 3.4 runs on Saturday, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate. I would expect Webb to check in with lower ownership than Brown and Nola, making him a strong contrarian target.
Webb also fares well from a strikeout perspective in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
On the other side of that matchup, Braxton Garrett has some appeal as a cheap SP2. He hasn’t had a strong start to the season, but he was impressive as a rookie in 2022. He averaged better than a strikeout per inning, and the Giants offense has tons of strikeout potential. They own the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. southpaws this season, whiffing in 26.7% of their at-bats. Their offense has also been far less effective against southpaws in general, ranking 28th in ISO and 24th in wRC+.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees offense has not lived up to their “Bronx Bombers” moniker this season, ranking just 13th in runs per game. However, they’ve dealt with their fair share of injuries, with both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton hitting the IL.
Judge returned to the lineup last week, and he’s picked up right where he left off last season. He’s homered seven times in his past seven games, and his 13 homers for the year rank fourth in the league. He continues to absolutely dominate from a Statcast perspective, ranking in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate.
Adding Judge back into the fold makes this lineup much more dangerous, and they lead the slate with a 5.8-run implied total. They have a fantastic matchup against right-hander Luke Weaver, who has pitched to a 6.26 ERA and a 6.11 FIP through five starts this season. He’s been particularly vulnerable to the long ball, allowing an average of 2.63 homers per nine innings.
The Yankees have the added benefit of this game being played in Cincinnati. Not only does being the road team guarantee their hitters nine full innings of work, but the Great American Ballpark is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the league. Unsurprisingly, Weaver has been roughed up at home this season, pitching to a 7.71 ERA while surrendering more than 4.6 homers per nine innings.
This five-man combination for the Yankees is a bit unorthodox, spanning from No. 1 all the way to No. 7 in the lineup, but it does allow you to include the uber-talented Anthony Volpe. Volpe has displayed a very fantasy-friendly skill set in his rookie season, tallying seven homers and 13 steals through his first 47 games. Going with a 1-2-3-6-7 combination should also help reduce ownership for what will likely be the highest-owned offense on the slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Matt Vierling OF ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Patrick Corbin hasn’t been nearly as bad as he was last season, but he’s still a pitcher we want to take advantage of in DFS. His 5.90 xERA is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his actual mark, so he’s a solid regression candidate moving forward. Vierling is expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the Tigers’ lineup, and he’s historically done his best work against southpaws throughout his career. Corbin has also been significantly worse against right-handed batters, and the Tigers are implied for a healthy 5.0 runs in this matchup. Targeting a cheap leadoff hitter for an offense with upside is always a viable strategy in MLB DFS.
Jose Abreu 1B ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics (J.P. Sears)
Things could not have gone much worse for the start of Abreu’s Astros tenure. The former AL MVP posted a 137 wRC+ in 2022, but that figure has dipped all the way to 52 in 2023. He’s still looking for his first homer of the season, despite playing in 43 games. Still, Abreu has always been able to tear the cover off the ball vs. left-handed pitchers, posting a 144 wRC+ in that split for his career. If he can’t get the job done vs. J.P. Sears – who owns a 5.27 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 2023 – it simply might not happen for Abreu this season.
Randy Arozarena OF ($5,500 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Eric Lauer)
Most of the stud attention on this slate will gravitate toward Judge and the Yankees, meaning Arozarena could be a bit overlooked. That said, Arozarena has been an absolute monster vs. left-handers this season. He’s clubbed five homers in just 30 at-bats, and he owns an unreal 246 wRC+. The Rays have absolutely teed off on left-handers as a team, ranking first in the league with a 153 wRC+, so stacking them vs. Eric Lauer is definitely a viable option.
