The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Saturday’s slate is light on top-end pitchers. Only three starters are priced above $8,800 on DraftKings, and only one is priced above five figures. That’s Cristian Javier, and his matchup vs. the Angels isn’t ideal. They rank eighth in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so paying a premium for Javier is not the most appealing option.
Instead, we can go a bit cheaper with Eury Perez. Perez entered the year as arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball. He more than held his own as a 19-year-old at Double-A in 2022, racking up nearly 13 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.52 FIP. He was even more impressive to start the 2023 season, so the Marlins chose to skip Triple-A altogether and send him straight to the big leagues. Perez has survived against the best hitters in the world so far, posting a 2.84 ERA and a 9.00 K/9.
Some of Perez’s more advanced metrics suggest he’s due for regression, but there’s no guarantee that happens on Saturday. He’s taking on the A’s, who have been one of the best matchups in baseball this season. They’re 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they boast the highest strikeout rate in that split. Vegas is showing Perez a lot of love in this matchup, listing him as a -205 favorite with a 3.4-run opponent implied team total.
Those are elite figures, especially considering Perez’s salary. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and price tags have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.98 (per the Trends tool). Perez also has gobs of strikeout upside in this matchup, so there’s plenty to like about the young right-hander on this slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Jordan Montgomery. He started the year strong, pitching to a 3.34 ERA across his first 35 innings, but then the wheels came off. He posted a 6.04 ERA during May, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four outings. He’s cracked double-digit fantasy points just once in that stretch, despite facing a very reasonable set of matchups.
Montgomery may not be as good as he was to start the year – or down the stretch for the Cardinals last season – but he’s also not as bad as he’s looked recently. He owns a 3.82 FIP for his career, which seems like an accurate reflection of his talent level. Montgomery has also averaged 8.53 strikeouts per nine innings for his career, so he can generate some swings and misses. He’ll probably never be an All-Star, but he’s a quality MLB starter.
Montgomery has some buy-low appeal Saturday vs. the Pirates. For starters, he’s a -144 favorite, which is always appealing for a value option. That has more to do with the Cardinals’ offense than with him, but some positive win expectancy is always a good thing.
Additionally, the Pirates’ projected lineup has struggled mightily against southpaws over the past 12 months. Their .310 wOBA is the fourth-lowest splits-adjusted mark on the slate, while their 27.5% strikeout rate is the fourth-highest. The Pirates have held their own against southpaws to start the year, but the longer track record suggests this is a pretty good matchup.
Montgomery’s price tag has dipped across the industry, making him an excellent buy-low candidate. He leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tylor Megill has had a rough go so far this season, pitching to a 4.67 ERA and a 5.96 xERA through his first 11 starts. However, he proved to be a capable pitcher in 2022, posting a 3.35 xFIP with a 9.70 K/9. If he can get back to that level, he’s definitely underpriced at just $7,100. Unfortunately, Megill doesn’t have the best matchup vs. the Blue Jays, so the progression may not start on Saturday. Still, he stands out as a capable pitcher on a slate without a ton of proven arms.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Megill’s potential to keep the Blue Jays’ offense at bay:
The top ceiling projection in THE BAT doesn’t belong to Javier or Perez on this slate. Instead, MacKenzie Gore holds the top spot. Gore has come into his own in his second full season, pitching to a 3.57 ERA and an 11.48 K/9. He still has some issues with control, but most of his peripherals suggest his success has not been fluky. Gore has the potential for another strong showing Saturday vs. the Phillies, who have been weak against left-handers to start the year. They’re just 27th in wRC+ in that split, and they also have the seventh-highest strikeout rate.
Has Jose Berrios turned things around for the Blue Jays? After a shaky start to the year, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five outings. He draws an interesting matchup vs. the Mets on Saturday. Their offense has been solid against right-handers this season, ranking 11th in wRC+, but they are prone to going into droughts. They were shut out by the Blue Jays on Friday, they eighth time they’ve been shut out this season. That’s tied with the A’s and Royals for the most in baseball. That gives Berrios some upside for tournaments, especially on FanDuel, given his 89% Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
We don’t necessarily need a cheap stack on this slate, but the Royals’ top stack is very affordable. Their top five hitters will cost you just over $4,000 per player, leaving you plenty of space to pay up for Javier, Perez, Gore, or whoever else you choose to roster at pitcher. Playing the Royals with two of those options is also definitely possible.
That said, we’re not targeting the Royals solely due to their price tags: They stand out as the highest projected stack in THE BAT regardless of salary. Instead, this has to do with their matchup vs. Austin Gomber. Gomber has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He owns a 7.00 ERA, and his 7.15 xERA suggests he hasn’t been unlucky. He’s striking out less than six batters per nine innings while surrendering plenty of long balls. Gomber’s numbers haven’t been quite as poor when pitching outside of Coors Field, but he still owns a dreadful 5.46 FIP in road starts this season.
This stack does feature three left-handed batters, which might make some feel uncomfortable against a left-handed pitcher. However, Gomber has been terrible in lefty-lefty matchups this season, surrendering a .434 wOBA. That means guys like Nick Pratto, Vinnie Pasquantino, and M.J. Melendez could be underowned in this matchup.
Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. are among the best fantasy options at their positions. Perez continues to get the job done at a high level at catcher, swatting 12 homers with a 119 wRC+ this season. No catcher in baseball has as many long balls as Perez this season, and getting a homer from the catcher spot is always a plus in DFS. Witt has yet to develop into a superstar – something that is fully expected for the top prospect – but his game is already very fantasy-friendly. He has 10 homers and 17 stolen bases for the year, giving him a chance at a 30/30 season at just 23 years old.
Overall, the Royals are implied for a healthy 5.2 runs in this matchup, making them a solid stack target.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Rowdy Tellez 1B ($4,300 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft)
Tellez leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projections on FanDuel, where his $3,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%. The Brewers’ implied team total of 5.4 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate, and Tellez will be on the positive side of his splits vs. Ashcraft. Tellez hit 35 homers last year, and he’s on pace for another 30+ homer campaign in 2023. Unsurprisingly, most of his damage comes against right-handed pitchers, with Tellez clubbing 42 homers against right-handers since the start of 2022. Ashcraft has pitched to a 5.55 ERA this season, so it’s a great spot for Tellez to potentially go yard.
Brendan Donovan 1B/2B/OF ($2,900 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (Luis Ortiz)
The Cardinals are the other team with a 5.4-run implied total on Saturday, and Donovan is expected to bat leadoff for them. That alone is enough to make him an appealing option. Donovan has also been a productive batter of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.04 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. His matchup vs. Ortiz is also solid, with the talented young right-hander pitching to a 6.64 xERA through his first four MLB starts. Ortiz has surrendered a .428 wOBA to left-handed batters, and while he profiles as a productive major league starter, that’s clearly not the case yet. Donovan stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings, where he has eligibility at first base and in the outfield.
Jake Fraley OF ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
Fraley is priced very fairly for his ceiling across the industry. In fact, only Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper have higher ceiling projections than Fraley on FanDuel, yet Fraley ranks outside the top 35 in terms of price tag. That’s a pretty massive discrepancy, and it’s one that we should be taking advantage of. The Reds are implied for 5.3 runs vs. Rea, who has pitched to a dreadful 6.55 FIP against left-handed batters this season.
