The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday’s MLB slate differs by site. FanDuel features a seven-game main slate starting at 4:10 p.m. ET, while DraftKings features a six-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET. The main slate on DraftKings starts at 1:05 p.m. ET, but this piece will focus on the contests starting in the 4 p.m. window.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Saturday’s slate is light on top arms, regardless of which slate or site you’re playing. None of the top pitchers stand out from a value standpoint, so it makes sense to target the guy with the highest ceiling. That’s Nathan Eovaldi.
Let’s start with the bad news. Eovaldi is taking on the Rays, which is the toughest possible matchup. They have been outstanding against right-handed pitchers this season, leading the league with a 126 wRC+. They also rank just 22nd in strikeout rate in that split, and they’re second in runs per game. Eovaldi’s Vegas data is pretty uninspiring, with the Rays implied for 4.1 runs and the Rangers listed as -105 on the moneyline.
However, good pitching will occasionally get the better of good hitting, and Eovaldi has been very good this season. He’s pitched to a 2.24 ERA across 12 starts, and his underlying metrics support his dominance. He boasts a 2.44 FIP and a 2.79 xERA, so he’s been basically as good as advertised.
The Rays also might be a better matchup than they appear on paper. They haven’t been nearly as good against right-handers of late, ranking just 17th in wRC+ over the past 14 days. Their strikeout rate also jumps to ninth over that time frame, so the Rays have been much more susceptible over the past two weeks.
Eovaldi is pricy, but he does lead all pitchers in our MLB Models in ceiling projection.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Cole Irvin stands out as the clear top value at the position on DraftKings at just $6,200. Irvin has been absolutely dreadful this season, pitching to a 10.38 ERA across 13 innings. However, his longer track record suggests he’s an acceptable backend starter. He posted a 3.98 ERA across 30 starts in 2022 and a 4.24 ERA in 2021. Those numbers aren’t going to get you into the Hall of Fame, but they’re good enough to keep you employed.
Where Irvin really stands out is his matchup. He’s taking on the Royals, who have been a disaster against left-handed pitchers this season. They own a 68 wRC+ in that split — the second-worst mark in the league — and they also boast the fourth-highest strikeout rate. Irvin is far from a strikeout pitcher, but he has far more upside than usual in that department on Saturday.
His Vegas data is also quality for his price tag. He’s a -150 favorite, and the Royals are implied for 4.2 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.97 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Irvin leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he’s one of just four pitchers projected to deliver positive value this afternoon. His ownership projection is also reasonable, making him a viable option in all contest types.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Irvin is not available on the FanDuel main slate, but Bryan Woo is a solid alternate. He’s basically free at $5,600; the only other pitcher in the same realm is John Brebbia, who is only expected to pitch an inning or two as an opener. Woo only lasted two innings in his first start, but he got extremely unlucky. He posted a 27.00 ERA in that outing, but he had a 0.78 FIP. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a large discrepancy. That’s obviously over a small sample size, but Woo also posted a 2.05 ERA and a 12.07 K/9 in nine starts at Double-A this season. He’s had a K/9 of at least 12.0 at every stop in his minor league career, so he should be able to miss bats at the MLB level. He’s a prime bounce-back candidate Saturday vs. the Angels.
Jared Shuster is another potential value option. He hasn’t been particularly impressive in his first taste of big-league action, but he draws a respectable matchup Saturday vs. the Nationals. They rank just 23rd in runs per game, and while they’ve been better against southpaws than right-handers, they’re implied for just 4.2 runs on Saturday. Playing for the Braves also gives Shuster plenty of win expectancy. He’s a -185 favorite, and it’s rare to find a big favorite this cheap. Pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70 on DraftKings and +2.98 on FanDuel.
Kyle Hendricks is an interesting value option on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Hendricks hasn’t pitched particularly well over the past few seasons, and he’s getting a bit long in the tooth. However, he has a bit more upside than usual vs. the Giants. They have the second-highest strikeout rate in that split this season, and they’ve cooled off a bit after a strong start to the year. They’re just 15th in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, and pitching in San Francisco gives Hendricks one of the best Park Factors on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they’ve been hot recently. They rank first in wRC+ over the past seven days, and they’ve averaged seven runs over their past six games. Only the Coors Field teams are implied for more than the Braves’ 5.8 runs on Saturday, and they’re not available on the afternoon slates.
The Braves are taking on left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who has shown signs of improvement this year. He owns a 3.66 ERA across 12 starts, and he’s striking out 11.25 batters per nine innings. Gore was previously considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, so it’s not surprising that he’s coming into his own.
However, Gore’s Statcast data is a bit concerning. He ranks in the 35th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, so batters are making solid contact when they manage to put the ball in play. Gore has also cooled down a bit as the season has progressed, with his ERA increasing in each subsequent month.
The Braves also have some guys who do damage against left-handed pitchers. Ronald Acuna boasts a 168 wRC+ in that split, and he’s a terror both in the batter’s box and on the bases. Ozzie Albies is a switch-hitter who has always fared better against southpaws, and he owns a 213 wRC+ in that split this season. Austin Riley and Sean Murphy also own the splits advantage, and they boast a 145 and 173 wRC+, respectively.
Matt Olson is the only batter who won’t have the splits advantage, and his numbers against left-handers are drastically worse than they are against right-handers this season. Still, Olson has held his own against southpaws for his career, and he’ll likely see at least one at-bat against a reliever.
Still, if you’re hesitant about using Olson, the Braves have plenty of capable replacements. Using the PlateIQ tool, Kevin Pillar and Orlando Arcia both stand out as capable hitters against southpaws:
Avoiding Olson in favor of the No. 7 or 8 hitter does slightly decrease the correlation, but it saves some salary and should help with ownership.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seth Brown 1B/OF ($2,800 DraftKings, 2,500 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers (Julio Teheran)
Brown managed to draw two walks on Friday, giving him a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel for the fourth straight game. Our blended projections like his chances of making it five in a row on Saturday, leading all hitters in projected Plus/Minus on both sites. Brown is a proven commodity against right-handed pitchers, and he draws a solid matchup vs. Teheran. He’s made just three starts so far this season, and he was basically out of the league over the past two years. He’s survived through his first three outings thanks to a .235 BABIP, but it’s all going to come crashing down eventually.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($3,300 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros (J.P. France)
Ramirez is only available on FanDuel on Saturday, but he deserves heavy consideration on that site. Ramirez hasn’t had quite the same success this season as he’s had in years past, but he’s starting to heat up. He already has more homers in June than he had in all of May, and he’s posted a 165 wRC+ over that stretch. Ramirez has also been far more successful against right-handers than left-handers this season, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. France. France has pitched to a 3.44 ERA this season, but his 5.13 FIP suggests he’s been fortunate.
Willy Adames ($4,200 DraftKings, 3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Oakland Athletics (Paul Blackburn)
The Brewers are tied with the Braves for the top implied team total on the afternoon slates. Blackburn was surprisingly an All-Star last season, but that had more to do with the rest of the A’s being terrible more than Blackburn himself. He had just a 4.28 ERA in 2022, and he’s at 6.00 through his first two starts this season. Adames is a right-handed batter who has always fared better against right-handed pitchers, and he owns a 117 wRC+ in that split for his career. He’s expected to bat second for the Brewers lineup, making him a solid option at his current price tags.
