The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
The penultimate slate before the All-Star break is very light on stud pitching. Only three starters are priced above $8,700 on DraftKings, and only one of them cracks five figures. That’s James Paxton, who has turned in a vintage Paxton season in his first year with the Red Sox. He’s been limited to just nine starts due to injury, but he’s been brilliant when on the mound. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA while striking out just under 11 batters per nine innings. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.82 on DraftKings, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of nine starts.
Paxton draws an outstanding matchup Saturday vs. the A’s. Oakland ranks just 25th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers this season, and they also have a below-average strikeout rate. They’re a bit better in that split than they are against traditional pitchers, but it’s still a phenomenal spot.
As a result, Paxton has the clear top Vegas data on the slate. He’s a -250 favorite, and the A’s implied team total of 3.7 runs is tied for the lowest mark of the day. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.19 (per the Trends tool).
Paxton also leads all starters in our MLB Models in K Prediction by a pretty wide margin. He’s projected for 6.7 strikeouts, and no one else on the slate is above 5.53. Add it all up, and it’s no surprise that Paxton dominates the projections. His ceiling projection is more than seven points higher than the next closest option, making him a clear target in all formats.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Based on Alex Wood’s $5,700 salary, you might assume that he’s facing the Rockies in Coors Field on Saturday. Fortunately, he gets to face the Rockies at his home ballpark in San Francisco, giving him an extremely appealing matchup. The Rockies have been the worst team in baseball against left-handers by a massive margin this season, posting a 65 wRC+ in that split. No other team is below 83, and the Rockies boast the second-worst strikeout rate in that split as well.
Wood hasn’t been at his best this season, struggling to a 5.20 ERA and a 5.26 xERA, but he’s still capable of generating swings and misses. He’s averaged 9.20 strikeouts per nine innings, and Vegas is firmly on his side in this matchup. The Rockies are implied for just 3.8 runs, and the Giants are listed as -215 favorites.
Wood will likely be capped at around five innings, especially since his past two outings have come out of the bullpen. That said, he doesn’t need more than five innings to return massive value at his price tag. He leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT by a wide margin.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Gavin Williams has had an interesting start to his MLB career. He’s pitched to a 3.79 ERA through his first three starts, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been pretty fortunate. He’s managed just 5.68 strikeouts per nine innings, and his 5.87 FIP is more than two runs higher than his ERA. However, he’s pitched more than six innings in his past two outings, and it’s rare to find a starter in his price range who can pitch that deep into games. He also draws an excellent matchup vs. the Royals, who rank dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. Williams is a -184 favorite, and the Royals are implied for just 3.8 runs. There’s also plenty of reason for optimism with Williams from a strikeout perspective; he’s averaged at least 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings at each stop in the minor leagues.
Braxton Garrett is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. His matchup vs. the Phillies doesn’t jump off the page, but Philly has actually struggled against southpaws this season. They rank 22nd in wRC+ in that split, and they also boast the sixth-highest strikeout rate. Their implied team total of 3.7 runs is tied for the lowest mark on the slate, and Braxton has the third-highest K Prediction in our MLB Models. He’s an interesting pivot off Paxton, who should command significantly more ownership.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Garrett’s strikeout prospects:
Andrew Heaney has a surprisingly tricky matchup against the Nationals. They’re far from an offensive juggernaut, but they’ve been much better against southpaws than right-handers this season. They also have the third-lowest strikeout rate in that split, which puts a significant damper on Heaney’s upside. That said, Heaney is an outstanding strikeout pitcher. He’s pitched to a K/9 of at least 9.00 in eight straight seasons, including a mark of 13.62 with the Dodgers in 2022. He hasn’t been at the same level in 2023 with the Angels, but his 9.65 mark is still pretty darn good. Even in a brutal matchup, Heaney still ranks second on the slate in K Prediction, and he’s also a -200 favorite.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers’ top stack certainly isn’t cheap, with their top five hitters checking in at more than $28,000. Even with Wood as an extremely cheap SP2, it’s still going to make it difficult to pair the Rangers with Paxton, Garrett, or Heaney as your SP1.
Still, the Rangers’ upside is undeniable. They lead all teams with a 6.1-run implied team total against right-hander Jake Irvin. The Rangers have mashed against right-handed pitching all season, ranking second in wRC+, and Irvin is an extremely unimposing righty. He doesn’t jump off the page as a gas can, posting a 4.70 ERA and xERA across 11 starts, but he’s been fortunate from a homer perspective. He has a minuscule 8.6% HR/FB rate, and bringing that to league average results in a 5.61 xFIP.
The Rangers have more than enough power to change Irvin’s fortune, with the top six hitters in their projected lineup all posting above-average marks in wOBA and ISO against right-handers this season (via PlateIQ):
While you can certainly play this stack as is, there are some other interesting permutations that can help a bit from a salary standpoint. The first is exchanging Marcus Semien for Jonah Heim. Not only does that free up an additional -$1,400 in salary, but it also helps fill the notoriously difficult catcher spot. Heim also has better marks against right-handers than Semien this season, so it’s a pretty logical swap.
You could also consider going with a wraparound stack, which would mean replacing No. 5 hitter Josh Jung with No. 9 hitter Leody Tavares. Jung is easily the weakest option in this five-man stack, and Tavares has excellent numbers at the bottom of the Rangers’ lineup. That move frees up -$1,700 in salary and should help from an ownership perspective as well.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jarren Duran OF ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (Paul Blackburn)
Duran has been scorching hot recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.56 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He has at least two hits in three of his past four games, including six extra-base knocks over that span. Overall, he’s increased his wOBA to .455 and his ISO to .238 against right-handers over the past 30 days, both of which are elite figures. He remains a massive value atop the potent Red Sox lineup.
Willy Adames SS ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (Luke Weaver)
Adames is another batter who has been hot at the dish recently. He’s launched a homer in two of his past three games, and he’s delivered at least one RBI in five straight. It hasn’t been a great year for Adames overall, but he’s historically been at his best against right-handed pitchers. That bodes well for a matchup vs. Weaver. Weaver has been a disaster this season, posting a 6.72 ERA across 14 starts, and his biggest struggles have come against righties. He’s surrendered a .412 wOBA and a .604 slugging percentage in that split, so it’s a great spot for Adames to keep his hot streak rolling.
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies (Connor Seabold)
I’m not sure if casual MLB fans – or the DraftKings pricing algorithm – realize how good Wade is. He’s been outstanding at the top of the Giants’ lineup this season, posting a 137 wRC+ with nine homers. Almost all of that damage has come against right-handers, with Wade’s wRC+ increasing to 148 in that split. Seabold is another starter who has been a disaster this season, posting a 6.62 ERA across 66.2 innings. His numbers have also been worse on the road than at home, so his struggles aren’t solely due to Coors Field, either. Wade has a clear advantage in this spot, making him another excellent value at $3,800.
