The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Saturday’s main slate lacks a true superstar pitcher, but there are plenty of solid arms to choose from. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where both Max Scherzer and James Paxton are available in the second leg of a doubleheader. That game is not available on DraftKings, so there are two fewer high-dollar options on that site.
Regardless of where you’re playing, Cristian Javier stands out as one of the strongest options. Javier has been terrible recently, allowing 21 earned runs across 15.2 innings pitched, but those have come against some solid offenses. He has a long track record of success – he posted a sparkling 2.54 ERA last season – so there are plenty of reasons for optimism moving forward.
A matchup vs. the A’s should be just what the doctor ordered. They’ve been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season, ranking dead last in runs per game. They’re 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and they also boast the third-highest strikeout rate in the league.
Despite his recent struggles, Vegas is showing Javier plenty of respect in this matchup. His 3.5-run opponent implied team total is the lowest mark on the slate, and he’s also a -194 moneyline favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.29 (per the Trends tool).
Javier also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Add in a cheaper price tag than usual, and there’s a lot to like about Javier on Saturday.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers is another fantastic option on this slate. Detmers is almost always in play due to his massive strikeout upside. He’s posted an 11.09 K/9 this season, and his 28.9% strikeout rate puts him in the 85th percentile. His big issue is that when batters do make contact, they tend to do significant damage.
That shouldn’t be a huge issue vs. the Pirates. Their offense is pretty futile, ranking just 23rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. They drop to 27th in ISO against southpaws, and they’re merely 25th in hard-hit rate. They also rank below average in terms of making contact, with their projected lineup posting a 24.7% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Detmers’ Vegas data isn’t quite as impressive as Javier’s, but it’s more than good enough for his price tag. He’s a -190 favorite, and the Pirates are implied for just 4.1 runs. Add in a 6.01 K Prediction and an 89% Bargain Rating, and there’s more than enough to justify selecting Detmers on DraftKings.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
The top K Prediction on the slate belongs to Dylan Cease. Cease has been unable to match his numbers from his breakout campaign in 2022 when he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting thanks to a 2.20 ERA and an 11.10 K/9. His ERA is nearly two full runs higher this season at 4.18, but he remains a premier strikeout pitcher. He’s averaged 10.78 strikeouts per nine innings, and he gets a fantastic matchup for strikeouts on Saturday. He’s taking on the Twins, who have the top strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers. Their projected starters have struck out in 30.2% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, so Cease should be able to pile up the punchouts in this spot.
Pitching for the A’s means that win opportunities are not going to come around frequently for Paul Blackburn. That said, Blackburn is a much better pitcher than his current salary indicates. He’s priced at just $5,500 on DraftKings, but he owns a 4.10 xERA and a 3.70 FIP this season. He’s also striking out a career-best 9.28 batters per nine innings. Blackburn draws a tough matchup vs. the Astros, but he’s simply too cheap for his median outcome. He trails only Detmers in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
Logan Webb is a fine stud option on FanDuel, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. Webb rarely posts gaudy strikeout totals, which is not ideal for a stud pitcher, but he excels at keeping runs off the scoreboard. He’s on pace for his third straight season with an ERA of 3.11 or lower, and his matchup vs. the Nationals is solid. It’s a terrible matchup from a strikeout perspective – the Nationals own the second-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handers – but they’re also just 25th in wRC+. Webb’s 3.6-run opponent implied team total is the second-lowest mark on the slate, and he’s the biggest favorite of the day at -200.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The first thing that jumps off the page with the Braves is their price tags. Their top five hitters will cost you more than $31,000 on Saturday, making them one of the most expensive stacks I’ve ever seen. That’s more than $6,200 per player, with Austin Riley serving as the “cheapest” option at $5,800. That’s going to make them tough to fit in your lineups, even on a slate without a superstar pitcher.
That said, there’s no denying their upside. Their 5.2-run implied team total ranks second on the slate, trailing only the Angels’ mark of 5.6. Their top five hitters also enter this contest in elite recent form, with all five boasting an ISO of at least .291 against right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
That is a whole lot of green. Matt Olson and Sean Murphy have been scorching hot, while Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to put up video game numbers from the leadoff spot. Adrian Houser isn’t a gas can – he owns a 3.79 ERA for the year – but good luck slowing down this unit at the moment.
The one positive about the Atlanta price tags is that it should result in lower ownership for the traditional 1-through-5 stack. If you play it, it almost certainly means you can’t target Javier, Webb, or Cease as your SP1, and with the Angels providing a superior total at a cheaper price tag, most people will likely go that route instead. You’ll have to get really creative with the rest of your lineup, but the Braves have the potential to break any slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Max Kepler OF ($2,600 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease)
Kepler got off to a relatively slow start this season, but he has heated up over the past month. He’s increased his wOBA to .378 against right-handers over the past 30 days, adding a .298 ISO. His Statcast data over that time frame is also elite, sporting a 74.3% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate against traditional pitchers. When batters do make contact against Cease, it tends to be of the hard variety. He ranks in the 11th percentile in average exit velocity and the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate, so Kepler has plenty of upside for his price tag.
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B ($4,200 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
Wade might be one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball. Despite batting leadoff for a sneaky-good Giants’ offense, Wade is still priced below $3,000 on FanDuel. He’ll also be on the positive side of his splits against Gray, and Wade has absolutely owned right-handed pitchers this season. He sports a 145 wRC+ in that split, and he has more walks than strikeouts. Gray has taken a mini step forward in his second full season with the Nationals, but he’s still not a pitcher we need to fear. He’s posted a 4.52 xERA and a 4.86 FIP, and the Giants are implied for a healthy 5.0 runs in this matchup.
Liover Peguero SS ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
If you are going to play the Braves today, getting a minimum-priced shortstop will certainly help. Peguero is expected to bat at the bottom of the Pirates’ lineup, which is obviously far from ideal, but he’s a decent prospect with a bit of fantasy appeal. He’s hit at virtually every stop along the minors, and he has 21 steals between Double-A and Triple-A so far this season. He also has 13 homers, so he provides just enough power and speed to have some upside for fantasy purposes.
