The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Saturday’s slate is loaded with quality arms, but Spencer Strider stands out in a tier of his own. That’s reflected in the DraftKings pricing, where Strider is priced at a ridiculously high $12,800. Still, it’s hard to argue against it. He’s been dominant this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.58, and he’s averaged an absurd 32.2 DraftKings points over his past four starts.
Strider has blossomed into the best strikeout pitcher in the league. He’s racked up more than 14 strikeouts per nine innings this season, leading all starters with a 38.9% strikeout rate. Only five other qualified starters are within even 10% of Strider, and none of them are above 32.6%. Strider also ranks fifth among qualified starters with a 2.84 FIP, so he excels at keeping runs off the board as well.
Strider should have no problems breezing through a weak White Sox lineup on Saturday. They’re just 28th in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and they’re 26th in runs per game.
Vegas is unsurprisingly showing Strider lots of love in this matchup. He’s listed as a -295 favorite, and the Sox are implied for just 3.2 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.01 (per the Trends tool).
It’s also an above-average matchup from a strikeout perspective. The White Sox rank 12th in strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season, and Strider obviously isn’t your average right-hander. His K Prediction sits at a very healthy 8.22, so he checks all the boxes on this slate. He’s a no-brainer on FanDuel, where his $11,600 salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, but he’s worth heavy consideration on DraftKings as well.
Strider also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS Value Pick
If you are going to use Strider, you’re going to need to save some salary elsewhere. Fortunately, Steven Matz stands out as a very appealing SP2 on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%, which is typically the type of salary reserved for the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Matz is far from a world-beater, but he’s much better than his current price tag indicates. He’s pitched to a 3.97 FIP this season while striking out just under a batter per inning.
The matchup for Matz isn’t ideal, with the Nationals faring far better against left-handers than they have against traditional pitchers. They rank 13th in wRC+ in that split, and they also boast one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league.
However, Matz is still getting plenty of respect from Vegas in this spot. He’s a -195 favorite, and the Nats are implied for just 3.9 runs. Those are outstanding marks for his price tag, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.22.
Matz leads all starters in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BAT, making him an ideal complement to an ace pitcher.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
As good as Strider is, Pablo Lopez might be the better pure value on DraftKings. That wouldn’t be the case in most matchups, but Lopez is taking on the A’s on Saturday. Oakland has the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and Lopez is already a sneaky-good strikeout pitcher. He’s posted an 11.19 K/9 this season, so he has massive upside in this spot. His K Prediction is actually slightly higher than Strider’s on Saturday, and his Vegas data is only slightly worse: -240 moneyline odds, 3.3-run opponent implied team total. Overall, Lopez looks really similar to Strider on Saturday, but he checks in at a savings of -$2,600 on DraftKings.
George Kirby is another step down on the DraftKings pricing spectrum, checking in at $9,300. However, he’s another starter with a phenomenal matchup. He’s taking on the Tigers, who rank 29th in wRC+ and sixth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. His Vegas data is in the same ballpark as Lopez’s, checking in with a 3.2-run opponent implied team total and -210 moneyline odds. The one big difference between Kirby and the other top arms on Saturday is his strikeout upside. Kirby has managed just a 7.44 K/9 this season, so his K Prediction lags well behind Strider and Lopez despite the great matchup.
Lance Lynn is opposing Strider in Atlanta, which obviously hurts his win expectancy. He’s the largest underdog on the slate, but we don’t really need a win from Lynn at his current price tag. He’s priced at just $6,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating, and no one on this slate is projected for more pitches. Lynn is coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, racking up 11 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings, and he still has the ability to miss bats. He has an 11.10 K/9 this season, and that figure has jumped to 12.56 in June and 14.14 in July. It’s a brutal matchup, but Lynn is simply far better than his current price tag indicates. He should also command minimal ownership on this slate.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the New York Yankees:
In addition to the plethora of stud pitchers, Coors Field is also available on this slate. The Yankees started up a three-game series with the Rockies on Friday, but they managed just two runs in the series opener. The Yankees have struggled all season on offense, especially since losing Aaron Judge to an injury. Overall, none of their projected starters have been that impressive against right-handed pitchers this season (via PlateIQ):
Still, this is Coors Field we’re talking about. Coors has been known to make even the worst hitters look good, and the Yankees still have plenty of talent on their roster. Additionally, their top five hitters are priced at just $23,000, which is basically nothing for Coors. You can definitely pair them with Strider if you’re willing to go with Matz at SP2 and pay down for your remaining hitters.
Additionally, you can free up even more salary if you’re willing to pivot from someone like Gleyber Torres to Billy McKinney. McKinney is just $2,700 and has been one of the Yankees’ top hitters against right-handers this season. He ranks first among their projected starters with a .254 ISO, while his .316 wOBA ranks third.
All of the Yankees’ batters draw an excellent matchup vs. Connor Seabold, who has pitched to a 6.65 ERA this season. He’s been even worse as a starter, and left-handed batters have posted a .400 wOBA and .547 SLG when facing Seabold in Coors this season. That’s another point in favor of guys like McKinney and Anthony Rizzo.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Kyle Isbel OF ($2,200 DraftKings) Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Cooper Criswell)
The Rays and Royals will play a doubleheader on Saturday after getting rained out on Friday, with the second game starting at 7:10 p.m. ET. That game isn’t available on the FanDuel slate, but it is on DraftKings. Isbel stands out as a solid source of value at $2,200 as the Royals’ projected cleanup hitter. Isbel has struggled for most of the season, but he’s posted a 139 wRC+ in eight games so far this month. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits against Criswell, who’s expected to start or serve as a bulk reliever in the second game of the doubleheader. Criswell has pitched to a 5.14 ERA and a 5.01 xERA across 21 MLB innings this season, so it’s a winnable matchup.
Brendan Donovan 2B/1B/OF ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
The Cardinals will be hoping that the second half of the season goes far differently than the first half did. Their run differential suggests they weren’t nearly as bad as their record shows, so there is some reason for optimism. Another reason for optimism is a matchup vs. the Nationals and Irvin. He’s pitched to a 4.60 ERA this season, but his FIP and xFIP are both above five. He’s a low-strikeout arm who also struggles with control, which is a bad formula for success. Donovan is expected to serve as the Cards’ leadoff hitter, and he’s had an excellent year at the dish. He owns a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, albeit with minimal power production.
Carlos Correa SS ($4,500 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics (Hogan Harris)
After one of the wildest free agencies in history, Correa has not had his usual production at the plate in 2023. He’s posted just a 95 wRC+, and he’s on pace for new career lows in virtually every category across the board. However, Correa has a long track record of success, especially against left-handed pitchers. He owns a 138 wRC+ in that split for his career, and he’ll be facing a southpaw in Harris on Saturday. Harris has struggled to a 6.07 ERA in the majors this season, so this seems like the perfect spot for Correa to get back on track. He’s a steal at $2,800 on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
