The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:15 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Saturday’s slate is on the smaller side, but it doesn’t lack for stud pitchers. Four of the 10 starters have a price tag of at least $9,200 on DraftKings, and two of the strongest options will be squaring off against each other. Tyler Glasnow and the Rays will take on George Kirby and the Mariners in Seattle, and they have the two highest median and ceiling projections in THE BAT.
Glasnow has a slight edge from a Vegas perspective. He’s a slight favorite at -120, and he leads all pitchers with a 3.5-run opponent implied team total. Those marks aren’t elite, but they’re just a touch better than Kirby’s.
Glasnow will be making his seventh start of the season after missing nearly a full year due to Tommy John surgery. His traditional numbers haven’t been impressive – especially his 4.45 ERA – but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been as good as ever. He’s been unlucky in terms of batted balls and home runs, so his 2.90 xFIP is fantastic. If those marks return to his career norms, he should return to being one of the better pitchers in baseball.
Where Glasnow makes his money is with strikeouts. He’s been dominant in that area this season, racking up 13.35 strikeouts per nine innings. He should have no issues piling up the whiffs vs. the Mariners, who have the second-highest strikeout rate in that split. Their offense has also been below-average vs. right-handers in terms of wRC+, so this is a great spot for Glasnow overall.
MLB DFS Value Pick
It doesn’t seem like a great slate to hunt for value at pitcher. Only three starters have a positive projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT: Glasnow, Kirby, and Tyler Anderson. Anderson just barely qualifies, but at $7,000, he’s worth some consideration.
Anderson’s 5.54 ERA is certainly nothing to get excited about, but he has been a bit unlucky. His 4.48 FIP is nearly a full run lower, and he also brings a smidge of strikeout upside to the table. He’s racked up at least five punchouts in four straight starts, and he’s totaled 27 strikeouts over his past 22 innings. Anderson is also a veteran pitcher who the Angels are not afraid to let eat innings. He’s gone at least five innings in all but three starts this season, which is a bit of a rarity in the modern MLB.
His matchup vs. the Diamondbacks is also a bit better than you might realize. Arizona has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, but they’ve been much worse against southpaws than traditional pitchers. They’re just 21st in wRC+ in that split, so Anderson is a candidate for another quality start on Saturday.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
In terms of run prevention, Kirby has been a better pitcher than Glasnow this season. He owns a 3.26 ERA, and most of his advanced metrics are in the same neighborhood. Unfortunately, his game isn’t quite as friendly for fantasy purposes. He’s not a particularly good strikeout pitcher, racking up just 7.56 strikeouts per nine innings for the year. However, he did average a 9.21 K/9 as a rookie, so there’s some reason for optimism moving forward. The Rays’ offense jumped out to an amazing start this season, but they haven’t been quite as dominant of late. They’re implied for just 3.7 runs vs. the Mariners, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Julio Urias possesses the best Vegas data in a juicy matchup vs. the Royals. He’s a massive -240 favorite, which is the top mark on the slate by a mile. The Royals are also implied for 3.9 runs, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.45 (per the Trends tool). The Royals also have one of the feeblest offenses in baseball, particularly against left-handed pitchers. They own just a 62 wRC+, and their projected lineup is loaded with players who struggle in that split (via PlateIQ):
Outside of Bobby Witt Jr., there’s not really a tough at-bat in this entire lineup. There’s always some risk in targeting a pitcher who is fresh off the IL, but Urias should cruise for as long as the Dodgers let him.
Tanner Bibee is underpriced for his talent at $8,400. He’s coming off 25.3 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s pitched to a 3.79 ERA and a 3.64 xERA in his first professional season. He’s held his own from a strikeout perspective, averaging 8.80 per nine innings. There’s optimism that Bibee can increase that mark moving forward – he averaged at least 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings at each level in the minors – and a matchup vs. the Cubs could help. They have the 10th-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season. Bibee and the Guardians are underdogs against the resurgent Marcus Stroman, which should keep his ownership in check.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also likes Bibee’s ability to get outs in this spot:
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Coors Field is on the docket on Saturday evening, and while there’s no Vegas data currently available, expect it to have the highest total on the slate. Neither the Rockies nor Tigers have a particularly potent offense, but everyone can score at Coors. There were 13 runs between the two teams on Friday, and all batters have a perfect 100 Park Factor.
The starting pitchers on both sides have yet to be announced, but the Rockies are expected to square off with left-hander Zach Logue. He’s yet to make an appearance in the majors this season, but he’s pitched to an awful 5.92 ERA and 5.86 FIP in Triple-A. He also posted a 6.79 ERA in 57 MLB innings with the A’s in 2022. Safe to say, I don’t think he’s going to fare particularly well at Coors Field.
The Rockies have been putrid against left-handed pitchers this season, but they still have some guys in their lineup who can rake in that split. Kris Bryant and C.J. Cron have hit left-handers well for their whole careers. Randal Grichuk has a .378 wOBA against southpaws this season. Elias Diaz has solid numbers in that split and fills a difficult lineup spot at catcher.
The Rockies are also extremely affordable for a Coors Field stack, checking in at just under $4,400 per player. They’re easy enough to pair with a stud pitcher, especially if you’re willing to use Anderson as your SP2.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Emmanuel Rivera 3B ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Anderson is usable on this slate, but he’s far from a pitcher you need to avoid. Rivera stands out as a solid value option on DraftKings, where he leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus in the blended set. Rivera is expected to bat second in the Diamondbacks’ lineup, which he does frequently against left-handed pitchers. He’s thrived in that split this season, posting a 120 wRC+ and a .345 batting average. He doesn’t provide the power that we crave in DFS, and he’s not much of a threat on the bases either. That said, he’s a good bet to return value at his current price tag.
Miguel Vargas 2B ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
Vargas is the clear top value on FanDuel, where he’s priced near the minimum at just $2,200. The Dodgers currently lead the slate with a 5.9-run implied team total, and Lynch is a pitcher poised for major regression. He’s survived through his first six starts, posting a 3.96 ERA, but all of his advanced metrics are significantly worse. He’s managed less than six strikeouts per nine innings this season, so teams are putting a ton of balls in play against him. The Dodgers have the second-best average Statcast data as a team, so they should be able to do damage in this spot. Vargas hasn’t had a great rookie season, but anyone priced at $2,200 deserves consideration in this lineup.
Mike Tauchman OF ($2,500 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Tanner Bibee)
Tauchman is another solid source of savings on this slate. He’s taken over as the Cubs’ leadoff hitter, and he’s been an above-average hitter for the year. Like Rivera, he doesn’t stand out from a power or speed perspective, but he owns a 109 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. He should be able to get on base a time or two, which is enough to justify a selection at $2,500.
