The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Corbin Burnes got off to a slow start this season, at least by his lofty standards. He pitched to a 3.94 ERA over the first half while striking out 8.55 batters per nine innings. After the All-Star break, he’s been an absolute monster. He owns a 1.38 ERA across 26 second-half innings, and he’s increased his K/9 to 11.77. Overall, he looks like he’s back to being the guy who won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021.
Burnes is well-positioned for another strong showing on Saturday. He’s taking on the Pirates, who rank merely 24th in wRC+ against right-handers this season. They also strike out an above-average rate, so it’s an excellent matchup.
Burnes is getting plenty of love from Vegas, leading all pitchers with a 3.2-run opponent implied total and -256 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.24 (per the Trends tool). Burnes’ 6.85 K Prediction also ranks first on the slate, so he’s pretty unimpeachable as Saturday’s top starter from a raw points perspective.
The only issue with Burnes is his price tag. He’s been priced up to $11,700 on DraftKings, which is really expensive. It’s a $1,500 increase compared to his last start, and it represents a $2,700 bump over the past month. He’s also projected for nearly 50% ownership, and other pitchers stand out as better pure values in THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Pick
If you squint hard enough, Steven Matz looks pretty similar to Burnes at nearly -$5,000 less. His Vegas data is very comparable – 3.6 opponent implied total, -250 moneyline odds – and he draws an elite matchup vs. the Rockies.
The Rockies have been the worst team against southpaws this season by a wide margin. Their 70 wRC+ ranks dead last in baseball, and the gap between them and the 29th-ranked Guardians is larger than the gap between the Guardians and the 21st-ranked Mets. They also boast the highest strikeout rate in the league against southpaws, so it’s a dream matchup for any left-hander.
Like Burnes, Matz has also been much improved over the second half. He’s pitched to a 2.11 ERA across 21.1 second-half innings, and he’s thrown 12 scoreless innings over his past two starts.
Matz doesn’t grade out quite as well as Burnes from a strikeout perspective, but his K Prediction of 5.07 is good enough for his price tag. He owns a stellar 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he is simply too cheap. He leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus and deserves consideration in all formats.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Ross Stripling is another excellent value target on DraftKings. He’s even cheaper than Matz at $5,500, and he also draws a fantastic matchup on Saturday. He’s taking on the A’s, who rank 25th in wRC+ and third in strikeout rate against right-handers this season. His 3.8-run opponent implied total trails only Burnes and Matz, while his -171 moneyline odds rank fourth on the slate. Stripling has not pitched well for most of the season, but he’s started to turn things around of late. He pitched to a 2.27 FIP in his last start, and he followed that up with 4.1 innings of one-run ball in a relief appearance vs. the Red Sox. He’s ready for a breakout performance.
If you like rostering stud pitchers at reduced ownership, Blake Snell is your guy on Saturday. Snell has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, racking up a 2.50 ERA and 11.8 K/9 across 22 starts. That said, no one is going to pay $11,000 for him in a matchup vs. the Dodgers, especially with Burnes as a viable alternative. The Dodgers are a phenomenal offensive team, but they’re not quite as potent against southpaws as they are against traditional pitchers. Snell has pitched to a 3.00 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Dodgers this season, so he can find success in this spot.
Noah Syndergaard is not nearly the same pitcher that he was in his prime. He’s transformed from one of the most intimidating pitchers in the league, mowing batters down with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball, into a soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact guy. That transformation has not been good for his numbers – he owns a 6.68 ERA this season – but it might not matter much vs. the White Sox. They’re 28th in wRC+ against right-handers, and their lineup only figures to be worse after the trade deadline. It’s a rare spot where Thor might still be able to get the job done.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres could fly a bit under the radar on Saturday. Their 4.7-run implied team total doesn’t jump off the page, ranking just tied for seventh among tonight’s squads.
That said, they draw an excellent matchup vs. Michael Grove. Grove has not been able to find his footing at the MLB level, struggling to a 6.75 ERA and 5.31 xERA. He’s been even worse when used specifically as a starter, with his ERA creeping even closer to 7.00.
Grove has been particularly victimized by left-handed batters, who have posted a .443 wOBA against him. He’s also surrendered nearly two homers per nine innings in that split, while righties have still managed 1.5 homers per nine innings.
The Padres’ lineup is particularly lefty-heavy, but they are loaded with quality hitters. Juan Soto and Manny Machado enter this game in elite recent form, with both players tearing the cover off the ball against right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t been quite as good of late, but he remains one of the highest-ceiling players in all of fantasy. He has 19 homers and 17 steals in 90 games this season, so he’s capable of doing damage with his bat or on the bases.
This stack is pricy, checking in at $28,500, but that should keep their collective ownership minimal. They’re nearly impossible to pair with Burnes, so you’ll likely need to go with guys like Matz and Stripling if you want to make it work.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Dylan Carlson OF ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies (Ty Blach)
Carlson has yet to blossom into the stud that he was expected to be, but he’s a really good hitter against left-handed pitchers. He owns a 126 wRC+ in those matchups, and he’ll be facing a left-hander in Blach on Saturday. He’s expected to move to the top of the Cardinals’ lineup for this matchup, and cheap leadoff hitters are always appealing in DFS. The Cardinals also lead the slate with a 5.6-run implied team total, so he’s an excellent salary-saver for lineups with a Burnes or an expensive stack. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings using the blended projections.
Eugenio Suarez 3B ($3,300 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
The Mariners are another squad that are facing a southpaw on Saturday. Anderson has been unable to duplicate his success from last season in 2023, struggling to a 4.98 ERA and a 4.84 xERA. Unsurprisingly, most of that damage has come from right-handed batters, who own a .353 wOBA against him. The Mariners have a few dangerous hitters against southpaws, and Suarez is certainly one of them. He hasn’t been particularly impressive in that split this season, but he owns a 126 wRC+ in those matchups for his career. He’s expected to bat third for a Mariners’ squad implied for 4.9 runs, making him underpriced at $3,300 on DraftKings.
Andres Gimenez 2B ($4,300 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox (Michael Kopech)
Gimenez stands out as one of the better pure values on FanDuel, where his $3,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. Gimenez has been unable to duplicate his success from last season, when he posted a 140 wRC+ and made the All-Star team, but he has been hot to start August. He owns a 297 wRC+ through the month’s first four days, and he’s in a good spot to keep the production going vs. Kopech. The Guardians are implied for 5.0 runs, and Kopech has pitched to a dreadful 5.63 xERA and 6.30 FIP this season. Kopech is capable of racking up strikeouts, but when batters make contact against him, they tend to do damage. He ranks in the first percentile in barrel rate, and Gimenez has a career-low 18.3% strikeout rate this season. The Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate as a team against right-handers, so their contact-oriented approach could yield fruit in this matchup.
