The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
It might feel weird to consider Kyle Bradish a stud pitcher, especially on a slate that features guys like Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler. That said, Bradish grades out as the clear leader among high-priced starters in THE BAT.
Bradish may not be a household name, but he has graded out extremely well from a pitch modeling perspective all season. He ranks third among pitchers with at least 120 innings in Stuff+, which measures how “nasty” your pitches are based on location, spin rate, and velocity. That puts him just slightly behind Spencer Strider and ahead of guys like Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and Shohei Ohtani. It goes without saying, but that’s pretty good company.
Bradish has also consistently improved as the season has progressed. He posted a 6.14 ERA in March and April, but that figure is down to just 1.90 in August. Overall, he’s posted a 2.47 ERA over the second half while striking out just under nine batters per nine innings.
Bradish has an outstanding matchup to keep things rolling on Saturday. He’s taking on the Rockies, who have been the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitchers. They’re dead last in wRC+, and they also boast the fourth-highest strikeout rate.
Bradish is getting a ton of respect from Vegas in this matchup. His opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is the lowest mark on the slate, and he’s also a massive -320 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.85 (per the Trends tool).
MLB DFS Value Pick
Only one pitcher owns a superior projected DraftKings Plus/Minus than Bradish per THE BAT: Carlos Carrasco.
At 36-years-old, Carrasco has shown major signs of decline this season. His strikeouts are way down, while his ERA and xERA are way up. He’s posted a 6.42 ERA over 19 starts this season, and that figure has jumped above nine over the second half.
So why the love for Carrasco on Saturday? For starters, he’s dirt cheap at just $5,500. He ultimately doesn’t need to do much to return value at his current salary.
His matchup vs. the Angels is also solid. They started the year hot offensively, but they’re down to 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers since the All-Star break. They also own a 27.4% strikeout rate in that split, which is the fourth-worst mark in the league.
Carrasco’s Vegas data doesn’t jump off the page in this matchup, but he has a bit more upside than you might think. He could conceivably get to five strikeouts over five innings, which would be enough at $5,500.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
If you’re looking to pay all the way up at pitcher, I give Scherzer the edge over Wheeler. Wheeler’s Vegas data is slightly better, but Scherzer has a clear advantage from a strikeout perspective. He’s taking on the Twins, who have been extremely generous with strikeouts against right-handed pitchers this season. They own the worst strikeout rate against traditional pitchers for the full season and since the All-Star break, so Scherzer should be able to pile up the punchouts. He leads the slate with an 8.27 K Prediction, giving him the top ceiling projection in THE BAT.
Touki Toussaint is not someone who regularly draws attention, but he doesn’t regularly face the A’s. He’ll draw that matchup on Saturday, which immediately puts him in DFS consideration. Toussaint is quietly a pretty good strikeout pitcher, averaging at least 8.64 strikeouts per nine innings in each professional season. The A’s are an elite matchup from a strikeout perspective, and they’re not particularly good when they make contact, either. He’s arguably the best value arm available on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%.
Like Toussaint, Chase Silseth is another sneaky-good strikeout pitcher. He owns a 10.0 K/9 through 45 innings in 2023, and that figure jumps above 12 as a starter. He’s taking on a Mets’ squad that is a shell of what they were last year, and they managed just one run Friday against Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval is a better pitcher than Silseth, but there’s no reason he can’t put together a quality outing at his current salary.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
Saturday’s top stack is exactly the same as Friday’s. It’s a somewhat unique 1-2-3-4-7 permutation for the Phillies, which isn’t exactly the most correlated combination.
That said, there’s no denying the talent level for each player. All five are among the best hitters in the game at their respective positions, and they’ve been rolling recently. Just like last season, they’ve been significantly better during the second half of the year, including a 7-2 win over the Cardinals on Friday.
The good news is that Philly could be a bit overlooked on Saturday. Their 5.1-run implied team total is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate, and it lags well behind the Orioles’ slate-leading mark of 5.9. Philly is also on the expensive side, and with Scherzer and Wheeler both commanding big salaries at pitcher, the ownership on their bats could be minimal.
They have an interesting matchup Saturday vs. Dakota Hudson. He’s known as an extreme groundball pitcher, but his groundball rate is the lowest of his career through 43.1 innings. He’s also allowing a career-worst 1.25 homers per nine innings. Hudson has survived with a 3.95 ERA, but his 4.96 xERA is significantly higher.
Some regression is likely headed Hudson’s way, and the Phillies have plenty of batters who can make him pay. Most of the lineup enters this contest in good recent form, with Nick Castellanos the only player struggling against right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
Once Hudson departs, the Phillies will get to face a bullpen that ranks ninth-worst in ERA. The Phillies tagged the Cardinals’ bullpen for two runs in just two innings on Friday, so they should be able to do damage in this matchup.
More MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tim Anderson SS ($3,100 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (J.P. Sears)
Is Anderson’s season-long nightmare finally over? After returning from a suspension, Anderson has logged two hits in three straight games. He has a double in each of his past two contests, and his wRC+ is up to 106 since the All-Star break. That’s still lower than his full-season mark from the past four seasons, but it’s miles better than what he showed during the first half of the year. Anderson has always been at his best against left-handed pitchers, and he’ll be on the right side of his splits Saturday vs. Sears. Overall, it’s another great spot for Anderson to keep the production going.
Rowdy Tellez 1B ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres (Pedro Avila)
I touched on Tellez as a possible cheap source of power, and he did not disappoint, tallying 23.0 DraftKings points. He went yard off Yu Darvish, and he checks a lot of the same boxes vs. Avila. Avila has had an outstanding season for the Padres, and he’s yet to allow more than one earned run in an appearance. However, he’s appeared in just seven games. He had an 8.57 ERA and 7.12 FIP in Triple-A this season, and he was not considered an MLB-caliber prospect. Ultimately, there’s no reason to expect his production to continue, so Tellez can be used as a cheap source of power once again.
Anthony Santander OF ($4,000 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies (Chris Flexen)
If you’re looking to get a piece of the Orioles’ monster implied team total, Santander is my favorite way to do it on DraftKings. He’s not quite as heralded as some of the team’s other young superstars, but Santander can rake. He hit 33 homers with a 121 wRC+ in 2022, and he’s put together similar numbers so far this season. His wRC+ increases to 135 when playing in Baltimore, and 20 of his 24 homers in 2023 have come against right-handed pitchers. That doesn’t bode well for Flexen, who has a 7.18 ERA and has allowed 2.53 homers per nine innings for the year.
