The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Happy Spencer Strider Day! Strider will take the ball in the second game of a doubleheader vs. the Mets, and he’s the top pitcher available virtually every time he takes the mound.
Strider’s 3.94 ERA doesn’t exactly scream “dominance,” but he’s clearly been a bit unlucky this season. His 3.14 xERA and 2.93 FIP are both significantly lower, but honestly, it doesn’t even matter for fantasy purposes. Pitchers earn most of their fantasy points through strikeouts, and no one is better than Strider in that department. He’s racked up 14.35 strikeouts per nine innings this season, so it doesn’t matter if opposing teams manage to scratch a run or two across against him.
Strider was shockingly roughed up by the Pirates in his last outing, but he was excellent in his previous three starts. He racked up 30.21, 26.04, and 27.9 DraftKings points against the Angels, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks, and he tallied 32 strikeouts in just 19 innings.
The Mets have given Strider some trouble during his career, but there’s no reason to expect anything but dominance on Saturday. The Mets have officially waived the white flag on their season, and their projected lineup is full of guys who are not MLB-caliber hitters. With Francisco Lindor questionable due to an injury, there’s really not much to fear outside of Pete Alonso.
Unsurprisingly, Strider leads the slate in both K Prediction (8.68) and opponent implied team total (3.5 runs), and his -225 moneyline odds rank second. He’s expensive at $12,600, but he has massive appeal in all formats.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tony Gonsolin isn’t a huge source of savings at $8,200, but he still grades out as the best option on the slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT. Gonsolin hasn’t been nearly as impressive in 2023 as he was last year, with his ERA dipping from 2.14 to 4.42. His advanced metrics are even worse, particularly his 5.20 xERA, while he’s managed just 7.11 strikeouts per nine innings.
That said, none of that should matter Saturday vs. the Rockies. They’ve been arguably the worst offense in baseball this season, ranking dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. They also boast the sixth-highest strikeout rate in that split, and they’re 23rd in runs scored. That’s nearly unfathomable for a team that plays half their games at Coors Field.
Gonsolin has the best Vegas data of any pitcher on the slate. His 3.6 opponent implied team total is just slightly behind Strider’s, while he’s a massive -300 favorite. That gives him tons of win expectancy, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 (per the Trends tool).
Gonsolin doesn’t provide a ton of strikeout upside, but he’s one of the safest options on the slate.
MLB GPP Picks
Jake Irvin has not had a strong debut season, struggling to a 4.93 ERA and 5.10 xERA. However, he has shown some signs of improvement over the second half. Specifically, he’s increased his K/9 to 9.59 since the All-Star break, and while that hasn’t led to increased success on the field, it does bode well for his fantasy prospects on Friday. He’s taking on the hapless A’s, who own the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Oakland also ranks 25th in wRC+ in that split, so they’re about as good as it gets from a matchup perspective. Irvin is a -140 favorite at just $6,400 on DraftKings, so he’s a strong choice to pair with an expensive stack.
Cole Ragans is another cheap arm to consider. He was who the Royals acquired in the Aroldis Chapman trade, and they immediately inserted him into their starting rotation. He’s responded by giving them elite production, allowing just two earned runs across 17.2 innings. He’s added 22 strikeouts, including 11 in his last start vs. the Red Sox. He has filthy stuff for a left-hander, with his average fastball velocity sitting at more than 96 miles per hour. The Cardinals have a reputation for beating up on left-handed pitchers, but that reputation is a bit misleading in 2023. They’re just 13th in wRC+ in that split, which makes them slightly above average instead of elite. Ragans is an underdog in this spot, but I love the upside he brings to the table at just $5,500.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also likes Ragan’s prospects of getting outs in this matchup:
Brandon Woodruff will likely command a fraction of his usual ownership, given the presence of Strider. Strider has better metrics than Woodruff in virtually every category across the board, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s an elite starter in his own right. He also arguably has the better matchup on Saturday against the lowly White Sox. They’re 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so Woodruff could easily put together a dominant performance. He’s a very interesting pivot for tournaments, and he’ll save you -$1,800 as well.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
Once again, the Braves lead the way on Saturday’s slate. However, this stack looks a bit different than Friday’s. Instead of the traditional 1-through-5 stack, Saturday’s top option in terms of projected points is a wraparound stack. Not only does that help a smidge in terms of salary, but it should help from an ownership perspective as well.
Michael Harris Jr. is expected to bat ninth for the Braves, and he got off to a dreadful start this season. However, last year’s Rookie of the Year has been outstanding over the second half of the year. He owns a 170 wRC+ since the All-Star break, including a 199 wRC+ in August.
Harris will be on the wrong side of his splits against southpaw Jose Quintana, but he’s had no problem hitting left-handers this season. He actually has a better wRC+ against southpaws than traditional pitchers, and he owns a .448 wOBA in that split over the past 30 days.
If you’re looking for an alternative way to stack the Braves, consider building around the bottom of their lineup. Guys like Orlando Arcia and Marcell Ozuna have been among their most productive hitters in that split of late (via PlateIQ):
The bottom of the Braves’ lineup obviously doesn’t have the same star power as the top, but they’re much easier to pair with a stud pitcher like Strider or Woodruff.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B ($3,300 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson)
Hayes is expected to bat leadoff for the Pirates on Saturday, and they’re implied for a healthy 4.8 runs vs. Williamson. Williamson has been a subpar pitcher for the Reds, posting a 4.54 ERA and a 5.20 xERA, and he’s unsurprisingly been at his worst against right-handed batters. They’ve posted a .338 wOBA against him, and they’ve averaged 1.95 homers per nine innings. Hayes has not become the superstar that he was projected to be, but he’s a quality hitter against southpaws. He owns a 108 wRC+ in that split, and four of his eight homers have come against left-handers.
Mookie Betts OF/2B/SS ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (Peter Lambert)
The Braves are not available on the FanDuel main slate, so the Dodgers become the top stacking option on that site. You could make a strong case that they’re the top team to target even if the Braves are available. They lead all teams with a 5.9-run implied team total, and Lambert has pitched to a 5.57 ERA across 53.1 innings this season. That number is slightly inflated by Coors Field, but it’s still an excellent matchup. Betts doesn’t need a great matchup to warrant consideration with the way he’s been hitting recently. He owns a .432 wOBA and .234 ISO against right-handers over the past 30 days, and he’s on pace for a new career high in homers.
Seth Brown 1B/OF ($3,400 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
Irvin has some appeal as a value pitcher, but he’s by no means someone we have to fear. Brown has been one of the A’s lone bright spots this season, posting a 119 wRC+ with 10 homers against right-handed pitchers. He leads all batters in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus using the blended projections, while he’s third on DraftKings.
