The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Most of Saturday’s action takes place earlier in the day, leaving just five games on the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, there are still a few top pitching options to consider.
That includes Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi may not have the reputation of being a top pitcher, but he’s delivered results to start the year. He’s pitched to a 5.20 ERA, but his 2.23 FIP and 10.08 K/9 are both outstanding. With some better luck on balls in play – Eovaldi owns a .413 BABIP – he should be looking at some serious positive regression.
Eovaldi takes on the Yankees on Saturday, and the Yankees have the reputation of being a top offense. However, they have not lived up to the billing so far this season. They rank just 19th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and their lineup is way weaker than usual at the moment. Giancarlo Stanton is on the IL, while Aaron Judge missed Friday’s contest with a hip injury. If Judge remains sidelined on Saturday, this lineup is very unimposing.
Vegas is giving Eovaldi plenty of respect in this spot. The Yankees’ implied team total of 3.9 runs is the second lowest mark on the slate, trailing only the Cardinals’ mark against Clayton Kershaw. Eovaldi is also the largest favorite of the day at -162.
Eovaldi stands out as a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his 88% Bargain Rating is the second-highest mark at the position.
MLB DFS Value Picks
After the top three pitchers on this slate – Eovaldi, Kershaw, and Corbin Burnes – it is really hard to find a strong complementary piece. No other pitcher has an opponent implied run total below 4.4, so none of them are expected to be particularly effective.
With that in mind, spending as little as possible on an SP2 makes sense. Jhony Britto fits that description at $5,600. There is not much to get excited about with Brito, who has pitched to a 6.11 ERA and a 6.96 xERA this season. He’s also averaged just 6.11 strikeouts per nine innings while handing out 5.09 walks per nine innings. The Rangers have feasted against right-handers this season, ranking third in wRC+, so this has the potential to end very poorly.
That said, Britto’s numbers have been impacted tremendously by two starts against the Twins. They rocked him for seven earned runs in just 0.2 innings in their first matchup, and they followed that up with three runs in 2.2 innings in their second. In Brito’s other three starts, he’s allowed two earned runs over 14.2 innings.
Britto is priced at a point where he doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value. Believe it or not, he actually leads all pitchers on the main slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT. He has two performances with at least 14.25 DraftKings points this season, including 25.45 DraftKings points in his first start of the year. If he can even approach that level vs. the Rangers, he’ll be well worth the investment.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
What in the world has happened to Corbin Burnes? After posting an ERA of 2.94 or better in three straight seasons, he’s currently sitting at 4.55 in 2023. If that wasn’t concerning enough, his K/9 has also dipped from 12.61 in 2021 to 10.83 last season to 7.16 in 2023. It’s possible that he’s not the same pitcher at this point, but if he’s able to turn things around, $9,500 is simply too cheap for him. Burnes has had a comparable salary in just 18 previous starts, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.40 (per the Trends tool).
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Burnes:
Reid Detmers has solid upside at $8,500. He’s averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings to start the season, and he’s facing a Brewers squad with a propensity for striking out. Their projected lineup has whiffed in 27.5% of at bats vs. southpaws over the past 12 months, the second-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Detmers’ K Prediction of 7.09 just barely trails Burnes for the top mark on the slate, and given Burnes’ struggles to generate whiffs this season, it should shock no one if he outperforms the most established starter.
Trying to fit two high-priced pitchers on this slate could be the preferred strategy, and using Eovaldi or Burnes and Kershaw is doable. Kershaw has looked as good as ever to start the year, posting a 2.32 ERA through his first five starts. Some of his metrics due suggest regression moving forward, and he’s not quite as good at racking up strikeouts as he was in his prime. He draws a dangerous matchup against a Cardinals’ lineup that tees off on left-handers, but Kershaw is still one of the safer options on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks started a series vs. the Rockies in Coors Field on Friday, and they did not disappoint in their debut. They scored nine runs, with eight of them coming in the seventh inning or later. The Rockies bullpen owns the eighth-worst ERA this season, so there are plenty of chances to score runs after their starter departs.
The Diamondbacks will start the game vs. Noah Davis on Saturday, who has pitched to a sparkling 0.93 ERA through his first two starts. However, both of those outings have come on the road. Now that he’ll take the ball in Coors Field, he could be looking at a different outing.
Nothing about Davis inspires confidence at the MLB level. He was not considered a big-time prospect, ranking outside the Rockies’ top 30 for both MLB.com and FanGraphs. He struggled to a 6.71 in three starts at Triple-A before getting called up to the big club, and he allowed two runs in his lone MLB inning prior to this year. Add it all up, and he looks like a massive regression candidate.
The Diamondbacks are not an offensive juggernaut, but they have some interesting players. Christian Walker is a bonafide power hitter, racking up 36 homers in 2022. Ketel Marte has previously been an All-Star, posting a wRC+ of at least 140 in two previous years with the squad. Corbin Carroll is arguably the best prospect in baseball, and he’s posted a 151 wRC+ through his first 27 games this season.
Both the Rockies and Diamondbacks are implied for 6.4 runs on this slate, so both teams make for solid choices. However, as the road team, the Diamondbacks are guaranteed nine innings at the dish. That makes them the superior choice.
Other MLB DFS Hitters
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Andrew Vaughn 1B ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Calvin Faucher)
Vaughn quietly had a solid season for the White Sox in 2022, posting a 113 wRC+. He’s off to a comparable start in 2023. His hitting metrics are a bit down, but he’s made up for it with a 10.6% walk rate. He also can still put a charge into a ball, posting a max exit velocity of 115.0 miles per hour. Vaughn went yard in yesterday’s contest, and the White Sox are implied for a respectable 4.6 runs against the Rays on Saturday. He’s an excellent value at $2,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Jurickson Profar OF ($3,700 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)
Profar is expected to bat second for the Rockies, which alone makes him worth considering at his current salary. However, he has more going for him on this slate. He’ll be taking on a left-hander in Henry, who has pitched to a 6.23 ERA and an 8.66 FIP this season. Profar will have the splits advantage as a switch-hitter, and he posted a 115 wRC+ against southpaws last season.
Willy Adames SS ($5,500 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Adames stands out as one of the strongest values of the day on FanDuel, where his $3,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. The Brewers will face a tough matchup in Detmers, but it’s not a matchup they can’t succeed in. They haven’t hit much against left-handers to start the year, but their lineup is loaded with proven righty bats. Adames isn’t quite as good against southpaws as he has been against traditional pitchers, but this price tag is too good to ignore.
