The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Nestor Cortes ($9,400) New York Yankees (-200) vs. Oakland A’s
Monday’s slate is short on what we’d consider true aces but long on the second tier of pitching options. There’s a variety of good arms on the slate, with nobody truly separating well above the pack.
However, it looks like the chalk is forming around Cortes, who has some of the best Vegas Data on the slate. Oakland is implied for just 3.6 runs, and at -200, the Yankees are one of the heaviest favorites. Cortes also packs solid strikeout upside, with a 25.4% strikeout rate that’s among the best on the slate.
I have my concerns, though, mainly around the matchup. While Oakland has been pretty bad overall offensively, they’re much better against lefties like Cortes. Against southpaws this season, they’re a slightly above-average lineup by wRC+ while striking out less than average.
That makes Cortes an easy GPP-fade for me at his expected ownership, despite his excellent projections. He leads THE BAT in median projection while coming in second in the FantasyLabs models.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Miles Mikolas ($6,000) St. Louis Cardinals (+112) at Chicago Cubs
Mikolas isn’t the most exciting option. He has just a 19.4% strikeout rate this season, which is right around his career 18.1% rate. His ERA is inflated as well, at 5.79 to start the season. However, one of his five starts this season was at Coors Field, and removing that outing drops his ERA to 3.14.
The only reason he’s so cheap today is that his stat line is still inflated by an unfortunate first start of the year. Vegas is on his side today, with the Cubs implied for just 3.8 runs despite being one of the better offenses this season. The likeliest outcome for Mikolas here is a five- to six-inning start with a handful of strikeouts, which would be more than enough to justify his price tag.
He’s the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models, making him an excellent choice for cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Dylan Cease ($9,700) Chicago White Sox (-134) at Kansas City Royals
Cease projecting to be far less popular than Cortes was a significant surprise to me. His ERA is slightly elevated this season at 4.58, but two of his five starts have come against the Rays. They’re the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching.
More importantly for DFS, Cease is the only pitcher on tonight’s main slate with a strikeout rate above 30% since the start of 2022, and he also has the swinging strike rate to justify it. However, his walk rate is also the highest on the slate, giving him a wide range of outcomes.
That said, the matchup couldn’t be much better. Kansas City ranks 29th in the majors in wRC+ against righties, top-ten in strikeout rate, and dead last in walks. If there’s ever a team to make Cease look good, it’s the Royals.
He leads the FantasyLabs median projections, while THE BAT is much more bearish on him. I’m firmly aligned with our in-house projections this time and will play Cease in all contest types.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees stack might have some unfamiliar names, with Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Aaron Judge all on the DL. However, that has the benefit of significantly lowering the price tag. The top of the Yankees order costs under $21,000, quite the bargain considering their team total north of five runs.
They have a solid matchup with JP Sears ($6,300) of the A’s, who has a 5.06 ERA and secondary statistics only marginally better. Things should get even better for the Yankees once Sears leaves the game. The A’s bullpen has a combined ERA of 6.70, by far the worst in the league.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bearish on Sears’ strikeout potential:
The Yankees are also a solid stack if going with Cortes as your top pitcher since there’s some clear correlation between a productive day offensively and Cortes picking up a win bonus. Only using one outfield spot (and not much salary) also allows for packing in a couple of other superstar hitters.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Emmanuel Rivera 1B/3B ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins (Braxton Garrett)
That the Diamondbacks have an implied total over five today shows the quality of the pitching matchup with Garrett, who has a 5.81 ERA coming into the contest. The lefty has an xERA almost a full run worse, so it’s not simply a case of bad luck, either.
Rivera is perhaps the best way to get exposure to that matchup. He’s nothing special overall but has hit lefties more than 44 points better than he’s hit righties in his career. His price tag is also far too cheap, considering his No. 2 spot in the Diamondbacks’ projected lineup.
Rivera is a far better play on DraftKings, thanks in equal part to his 62% Bargain Rating and dual eligibility at both corner infield spots.
Tim Anderson SS ($5,400 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
I want some White Sox exposure in their matchup with Greinke. The 39-year-old Greinke appears close to washed if he’s not there already, with a 5.25 ERA and 5.57 xERA in 2023.
This is more of a general White Sox entry, with their implied total of 4.6 runs trailing only Houston for Monday’s road teams. Still, I’d start at the top with Anderson, who leads all White Sox in median projection in the FantasyLabs models.
He’s also due for some good luck, with no home runs on the season despite hard-hit and barrel rates well above his career average. He’s hit at least 17 dingers in every season in which he played at least 100 games, so this is an uncharacteristic cold stretch.
Jazz Chisolm ($5,300 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen)
Chisholm is the Tyreek Hill of the MLB, with an extreme boom-or-bust profile. He already has five home runs and 11 steals through just over a month, putting him on pace for better than twenty homers and forty thefts. However, he also has an absurd 35.5% strikeout rate.
That makes him especially volatile against a pitcher like Gallen, who has a strikeout rate north of 35% this season. However, Gallen’s swinging-strike rate suggests he’s run exceptionally hot to get there. That should keep ownership low on Chisholm, making him a solid GPP option.
He’s particularly useful on FanDuel, where he’s extremely cheap and has a 98% Bargain Rating.
