The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Castillo ($9,200) Seattle Mariners (-335) vs. Oakland A’s
It’s always nice when one of the slate’s top arms also has one of the best matchups. That’s the case with Castillo today, as he takes on a struggling Oakland lineup.
We’ll start with Castillo himself. His salary has dipped nearly $1,000 on DraftKings over his last two starts, thanks to a pair of relatively disappointing results. However, those games were against the Rangers and Red Sox: two top-five offenses against right-handed pitching.
Overall, he still has a 3.31 ERA and nearly a 28% strikeout rate on the season, both excellent numbers. Both marks are also right around where they “should” be based on his underlying stats, so it’s not a case of good luck, either.
Today he draws an A’s team that ranks bottom-ten in wRC+ against righties, but more importantly, strikes out at the highest clip. That gives him plenty of upside for GPPs, and he’s a rock-solid cash game option. He’ll carry massive ownership, but there aren’t a ton of viable alternatives.
Castillo is the clear leader in median and ceiling projections in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brady Singer ($7,000) Kansas City Royals (-115) vs. Detroit Tigers
While Castillo is an example of a “good pitcher with a good matchup,” Singer falls in the “bad pitcher with a great matchup” category. So far this season, he has an ERA north of seven and a strikeout rate below 20%.
Of course, he’s facing the Tigers, the league’s 28th-ranked team in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They can make any pitcher look good, and Vegas has them implied for a moderate 4.3 runs on the slate.
Singer is also somewhat better than his ERA indicates, with most of his ERA predictors in the mid-fours. That’s still not great, but luck has worked against him to an extent this season.
He trails only Castillo in Pts/Sal projection in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Michael Lorenzen ($7,800) Detroit Tigers (-105) at Kansas City Royals
The case for Lorenzen is very similar to that for Singer, but you can make a case that Lorenzen is in an even better spot on Monday.
Kansas City ranks dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season, and they’re one of just three teams to strike out at least 25% of the time. Both of those numbers are far worse (or better for opposing pitchers) than the Tigers. Lorenzen has also been better than Singer this season, with a 3.44 ERA. Unlike Singer, he’s been on the lucky side, but his leading indicators are still a bit better than Singer’s are.
Of course, paying an extra $800 for an underdog pitcher isn’t a comfortable feeling, especially considering Lorenzen’s lack of strikeout upside. However, with his single-digit projected ownership, he’s a possible “pay up to be contrarian” play for GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Miami Marlins:
We’re spoiled for choice on Monday, with five of the 14 teams in action implied for at least five runs. However, none can match the Marlins, who are playing at Coors Field and are implied for more than six.
We’ve had a few series at Coors recently with bad-hitting teams on both sides, which is fortunately not the case today. The Marlins aren’t a good offense by any stretch, but they’re only slightly below average in terms of wRC+. They’re also one of the most top-heavy teams in the majors, with their first three hitters accounting for roughly 47% of their created runs over the course of the season.
While that figure includes the injured Jazz Chisholm, they still have some solid hitters at or near the top of the order. They’re expensive but not unreasonably so today, making them the clear top option for cash games and GPPs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($5,600 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland A’s (Kyle Muller)
The Mariners have the highest implied team total outside of the game at Coors, at a solid 5.3 runs tonight at home against the A’s. They’re led by their superstar outfielder Julio Rodriguez, who has a rare combination of power and speed. Rodriguez topped 25 steals and home runs last season and is on pace to challenge for 30/30 this season.
He’s averaging “only” 8.2 DraftKings points per game this season, but he’s been remarkably unlucky. His BABIP is down nearly 100 points from last season despite his excellent speed, bringing his batting average down to .204 with it. If you regress his BABIP to last year’s admittedly high mark, he’d be hitting around .280.
He’s firmly in play on both sites but stands out particularly on FanDuel, where he holds a 96% Bargain Rating. Fellow Mariners outfielder Teoscar Hernandez ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) is also a strong choice tonight.
Justin Turner 1B ($3,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (Jaime Barria)
Assuming he plays — he’s day-to-day with a sore knee and missed Sunday’s contest — Turner is one of the better DraftKings values on Monday. He’s hitting .279 with five homers for the Red Sox, and they’re implied for a solid 4.8-run total tonight.
His projected No. 3 spot in the Sox lineup is valuable, with Boston in the top five in runs scored on the season. With his solid batting average, he should have plenty of RBI opportunities. He’s an excellent pivot from the Marlins’ Garrett Cooper if looking to save some salary or go with a more unorthodox Marlins lineup to get contrarian.
Jurickson Profar OF ($4,000 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners (Edward Cabrera)
Of course, we need to mention the home team at Coors tonight. The Rockies trail only the Marlins with their 5.7-run implied total. Their matchup with Cabrera is tough due to his 30% strikeout rate, but this game is still at Coors.
Besides, Profar is a low-strikeout hitter who could benefit from the matchup since Cabrera allows plenty of hard contact when opponents put the bat on the ball. With his reasonable salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s a solid option for some cheap(ish) Coors exposure.
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