The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Framber Valdez ($10,700) Houston Astros (-190) vs. Chicago Cubs
Valdez is the clear leader in median projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models today and is one of just two arms priced over $10,000 on DraftKings. Valdez continues to get better and better, and his current ERA of 2.38 is the lowest since his extremely-brief rookie season.
If that number holds, it would mark the fifth consecutive season that the 29-year-old improves upon his ERA. He’s also recording strikeouts at a career-high rate of 27.1% heading into Monday’s game. The underlying metrics largely support his ERA and strikeouts, so this isn’t just some good early-season luck.
The concern with Valdez today lies in the matchup with the Cubs. They rank sixth in overall wRC+ on the season and fifth against lefties with a 121 mark. However, Vegas is firmly on Valdez’s side today. Chicago has the lowest implied total on the board, and the Astros are almost two-to-one favorites.
That’s a strong sign that he should have no problem with the difficult matchup. Given the absence of other high-quality pitching options, he’s a near must-play today.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Alek Manoah ($7,900) Toronto Blue Jays (-168) vs. New York Yankees
Manoah’s salary reflects a more difficult matchup than he actually has today in the Yankees. New York has disappointed on the offensive side this season, with a slightly below-average wRC+ of 97 against right-handed pitching. That makes Manoah’s sub-$8,000 price tag a reasonable bargain.
Manoah has been bad to start the season, with a 4.83 ERA and even worse underlying numbers. However, in three MLB seasons, his career ERA is just 2.86. While he was a bit lucky to arrive at those numbers the past two seasons, he’s still much better than his 2023 results indicate.
That makes Manoah a “bet on regression” play today, with betting markets leaning in his direction. The Yankees are implied for a moderate four-run total, one of the lower marks on the slate. Manoah makes a ton of sense for GPPs, with his ownership projected in the low teens.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Greene ($8,300) Cincinnati Reds (-125) at Colorado Rockies
Rostering pitchers at Coors Field is always terrifying, but there’s a solid case to be made for Greene tonight. Essentially it comes down to a simple factor: it doesn’t matter how thin the air is if you can’t put the ball in play.
The flamethrowing Greene has a 30% strikeout rate since making his debut in 2022, with a swinging strike rate that suggests he could punch out even more hitters. He also has a 3.69 ERA this season despite an unsustainably-high .373 BABIP. We’d expect his BABIP to be above the league average of .300 or so — faster pitches tend to go farther when they’re hit — but not this high.
Greene allows a ton of fly balls when hitters do make contact, making this a boom-or-bust matchup for him. It could get ugly fast if he doesn’t rack up a ton of Ks. However, this is a rare opportunity to get him at such a cheap salary and single-digit ownership. He’s an excellent GPP choice.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
Speaking of cheap options at Coors Field, we have the Reds’ offense. They’re implied for 5.8 runs tonight, easily the highest mark on the slate. Despite that, their top five hitters check in at an average price of just $4,500 on DraftKings.
That makes them a massive value in a great pitching matchup against the Rockies Connor Seabold ($5,300). Seabold has a poor profile for a Rockies pitcher, with just a 16% strikeout rate and one of the lowest groundball rates on the slate.
The Reds should be massively chalky today, but they’re hard to avoid. Pairing them with Greene offers a solid way to both get contrarian and build in some extra correlation. Going full Reds onslaught is my favorite way to build for tournaments today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jarred Kelenic OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (Tanner Houck)
The Mariners are my favorite stacking choice outside of the Reds on Monday night. They have an excellent 5.3-run implied total as they travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox. That means a solid Park Factor and decent hitting weather with 10 mph winds blowing out to right field.
Most important is the matchup with Houck, who brings an ERA north of five into tonight’s contest. While he’s been better than that, his SIERA is still above four on the season. Kelenic is my favorite Mariner, with a .287 batting average and a solid power/speed combination.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,300 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres (Michael Wacha)
Witt leads all shortstops in THE BAT projections tonight, though he comes at a premium price. He’s a GPP-only option for me as a classic boom-or-bust player. He’s hitting just .233 on the season, but he’s on pace for more than 40 steals and almost 30 homers.
His speed should be a big factor against Wacha. Wacha has a sub-20% strikeout rate on the season, so Witt should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play. With his excellent speed, he should be able to beat out a ground ball or two and find his way on base. If he can do that, he should have the green light to steal a bag or two.
Elias Diaz C ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene)
While I’m rostering a ton of Greene tonight, I’d be remiss not to mention the Rockies hitters. They’re implied for 5.4 runs, making their entire lineup in play. As mentioned in the Greene section, he allows lots of fly balls and hard contact, so this one could very easily go the Rockies’ way.
Diaz is my preferred option for the Rockies for a couple of reasons. One, he plays catcher, which is generally a fairly thin position. More importantly, his 17.8% strikeout rate is solid, so he’s likelier than most to put the ball in play against Greene. Finally, Greene has been worse against right-handed hitters in his young career, giving an edge to Rockies righties.
