The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Blake Snell ($8,500) San Diego Padres (-240) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Frequently on these smaller slates, one pitcher stands out as clearly above the rest of the field. While that creates an uncomfortable level of ownership in a high-variance sport like baseball, the lack of other viable options makes them a tough fade.
Today that pitcher is Snell, who has the best Vegas Data by a wide margin. He also has by far the best pitching stats of any main-slate arm, with the lowest SIERA and highest strikeout rate dating back to the start of the 2022 MLB season.
All of which would make him an obvious play at $8,500, even in a difficult matchup. Fortunately, he also has one of the better matchups on the slate. The Reds have hit lefties at a bottom-ten rate this season while striking out at a reasonably high clip.
Everything is pointing up for Snell today, and we can afford to get contrarian elsewhere in our lineups. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets for median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Tony Gonsolin ($6,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-168) vs. Philadelphia Phillies.
Gonsolin missed the beginning of the season with an injury, so he’s made just one appearance in 2023. It was a brief one, lasting just 3.1 innings despite not giving up any runs. However, it’s reasonable to assume he gets stretched out for another couple of innings this time, and his effectiveness was an encouraging sign.
He also had a strong 2022 season, with a 2.14 ERA and a nearly 24% strikeout rate. His ERA was a bit lucky, but if he can get anywhere near that number, he’s a steal at his current price tag.
The matchup with the Phillies is a difficult one on paper, though. They’ve hit righties at a top-ten rate on the season, even without Bryce Harper on the field. That would be enough to scare me off Gonsolin on a bigger slate, but we might not have that luxury today.
Gonsolin is in the top three in Pts/Sal projection in both systems and holds a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He also stands out in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS GPP Picks
MacKenzie Gore ($8,100) Washington Nationals (+115) at Chicago Cubs
Gore is an archetypal GPP play today. He’s got discouraging Vegas data in a tough matchup, with the Cubs ranking second in the majors against lefty pitching. However, he also has as much strikeout upside as any arm on the slate, coming in a hair behind Snell for the lead in K Prediction.
He’s had a significant jump in both his strikeouts and his swinging strike rate in this, his second year in the majors. He’s also cut his ERA down to 3.00, though his leading indicators suggest he hasn’t been quite that good. Still, those are solid numbers, and with a young pitcher with an excellent pedigree, it’s plausible that improvement is driving the change, not just variance.
Of course, things could go south in a hurry against a formidable Cubs lineup. That is why he’s far better suited for GPPs than cash games. Well, that and his ownership projections, which have him outside the top tier of pitchers no matter which projection set you use.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
It’s a good thing we have some cheaper pitching options on the slate because the Padres’ star-studded lineup costs a pretty penny. They could be worth it, though, with a 5.3-run implied total that’s second-best on the slate and ownership projections somewhat below the Blue Jays.
This is a weird spot for the Padres, who have seen a price hike after their recent series. They scored 22 runs over the weekend, but those games were played in Mexico City. That stadium was roughly 1.5 times the elevation of Coors Field and also boasted the shortest dimensions of any MLB park.
Those factors inflated the Padres’ production over the weekend, which is why their salaries are also high. At first glance, that’s a reason to fade San Diego: we don’t want to pay a premium to build yesterday’s lineup. However, if enough of the field thinks that way, it creates an opportunity.
Pricing aside, it’s an excellent setup for the Padres, who are taking on Luke Weaver ($7,000) of the Reds. He has a 6.85 ERA over the past two seasons combined, by far the worst on the slate. If you can find the salary, San Diego is an excellent GPP stack tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
George Springer OF ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (Cory Kluber)
As alluded to above, the Blue Jays have the top implied total on the slate. They’re checking in at 5.6 runs while playing on the road, making them another excellent stacking choice. Those stacks should start with Springer as the team’s leadoff hitter, though the whole team is in play.
Kluber is a shell of his former self, with a 4.64 ERA and a 20% strikeout rate since last season. Those are scary numbers against a potent offense like Toronto’s, especially considering how hitter-friendly Fenway Park is for right-handed bats.
Mookie Betts OF/SS/2B ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Taijuan Walker)
Betts’ multi-position eligibility is huge on Monday. Quality options are abundant in the outfield, especially between our two highest-rated teams — Toronto and San Diego. However, Betts is also eligible at the much shallower middle infield spots. You can use him at shortstop on DraftKings and second base on FanDuel, and both options are worth considering.
Betts is off to a slow start, hitting just .235 through the first month. However, his BABIP and HR/FB ratio are down from his career numbers, despite his barrel and hard hit rates being roughly in line with his baseline. That means he should be due for some regression, especially as the weather begins to warm up and balls carry a bit better.
He’s a solid choice on DraftKings but is approaching must-play territory on FanDuel. He has an 84% Bargain Rating, and the lack of viable second basemen makes him even more appealing.
Mauricio Dubon 2B ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants (Ross Stripling)
Without even looking at his numbers, Dubon is too cheap for the expected leadoff role for Houston. They’re implied for a solid five runs at home against the Giants. His price tag is even more surprising when you look at his stats so far.
Dubon is hitting just over .300, and he’s added a pair of steals already. While his lack of power limits his upside, the strength of the Astros lineup behind him means he should score a fair amount of runs. He’s a better play on DraftKings, where the absence of Betts at second base makes the position much thinner.
