The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($10,200) Philadelphia Phillies (-250) vs. Detroit Tigers
Nola is a no-brainer today, as probably the best pitcher on the slate who also has the best matchup. There’s a reason why Vegas has the Tigers with the slate’s lowest implied total and the Phillies as the heaviest moneyline favorites on the board.
Only three teams have a worse wRC+ against right-handed pitching than Detroit. One of them (Cleveland) isn’t playing today, and another (Kansas City) is facing a lefty. Only the A’s are, in theory, a better matchup than the Tigers, but the Tigers are without Riley Greene, who’s been by far their best hitter this season.
While Nola has struggled this season with a 4.70 ERA, I’m not worried about his numbers. His xERA is nearly a full run lower, and he has a solid track record of success over the past few seasons. He’s still just 30 years old, so it’s unlikely that his skills have diminished in a significant way.
While Nola is expensive, he’s the clear leader in median projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections. Enough so that he also leads in Pts/Sal, despite being the most expensive pitcher on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Johan Oviedo ($6,900) Pittsburgh Pirates (-180) vs. Oakland A’s
While Nola is an example of a good pitcher with a good matchup, Oviedo has less impressive numbers but a similarly beatable opponent tonight. He draws the aforementioned A’s, who have been even worse than the Tigers against righties this season.
Like Nola, Oviedo has been better than his ERA indicates. It’s a mediocre 4.50, but his xERA is a considerably stronger 3.89. That’s still not an elite figure, but it’s more than good enough, given the price point and opponent. He also has a sub-20% strikeout rate but is due for a bit of regression in that area, based on his swinging strike numbers.
With his relatively limited ceiling, I’d normally classify a pitcher like Oviedo as a cash-game-only option. However, he makes some sense in GPPs today. There are not a ton of standout pitchers available, yet he’s still projecting for relatively low ownership in GPPs. Given his salary, he just needs to stay reasonably close to the rest of the field while allowing you to get more points from your hitters.
He trails only Nola in Pts/Sal projection in both systems today.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Braxton Garrett ($8,300) Miami Marlins (-162) vs. Kansas City Royals
While the Royals have been better against left-handed pitchers like Garrett this season, “better” doesn’t mean “good.” They still rank 21st in wRC+, and their 3.7-run implied total is better than only the Tigers today.
That makes Garrett an intriguing option, with a fair bit of upside as well. He has a solid 23.8% strikeout rate this season but should be somewhere in the upper 20s based on his strong swinging strike rate. He also has FIP, xFIP, and SIERA numbers well below his 4.22 ERA.
The combination of positive regression, potential, and matchup makes him a strong play today, yet he’s projecting a distant third in ownership. While I’m fine with playing Oviedo in GPPs, I slightly prefer Garrett thanks to his more robust ceiling.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays are one of a handful of teams with an implied total in the low fives today, tying with the Phillies for the best on the slate at 5.3 runs. They’re on the pricier side but have an excellent home matchup against the Astros Brandon Bielak ($7,200).
Bielak has an ERA of 3.19, but his xERA and FIP are well above five. That makes him one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors, and baseball tends to even out in the long run. That’s likely to start today against the dangerous Blue Jays lineup.
Toronto is always slightly frustrating to stack since two of their top four hitters are eligible only as first basemen. That does create an opportunity to save some salary or ownership, however. Going off the board a bit with the eighth- or ninth-place hitters increases the correlation while cutting the cost and reducing ownership.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nick Castellanos OF ($4,500 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers (Joey Wentz)
The Phillies are somewhat worse against left-handed pitching but through no fault of Castellanos. He’s hitting .318 against southpaws this season and .302 in his career. Both are better than his numbers against righties, making him a solid option anytime the Phillies face a left-handed pitcher.
As is seemingly always the case, he and the rest of the Phillies are drastically underpriced on FanDuel today. His 78% Bargain Rating is actually the lowest among their first five hitters, but he’s still a solid value given the matchup and platoon splits.
Kevin Newman 2B/3B ($2,600 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Julio Tehran)
The Reds are implied for 5.1 runs against the resurrected Julio Tehran, who’s made two starts this season after last being seen in 2021 (where he made just one appearance). It’s gone well for Tehran at first glance, with just one run allowed through 11 innings. However, his xFIP and SIERA are over five, meaning he’s been fortunate through his small sample size.
That’s where Newman and the Reds come into play. The Vegas total tells us everything we need to know, making Newman too cheap as the Reds’ projected leadoff hitter.
He’s appropriately priced on FanDuel (where he’s listed as a shortstop), but the real appeal is on DraftKings, thanks to his 99% Bargain Rating and positional flexibility.
Connor Joe 1B/OF ($3,300 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oakland A’s (JP Sears)
If fading the chalky Vlad Guerrero Jr., Joe is an excellent option at first base. Of course, since he’s also eligible in the outfield, he could be played alongside Vladdy. Regardless, he’s another player facing a poor left-handed pitcher with excellent platoon splits.
Joe is hitting just over .300 this season against southpaws and has hit them better throughout his career. While he’s not a massive power hitter, his six homers through 50 games is a solid number, and he’s also contributed an additional three steals, giving him a bit of upside on the bases as well.
