The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,600) Atlanta Braves (-210) vs. Minnesota Twins
Despite his lofty price tag, Strider is a bit of a free square on DraftKings today. His 24.0 points per game average is one of the best in baseball, and he’s topped 30 points more than a quarter of the time. While he’s not elite in terms of run prevention, he’s an ideal DFS pitcher.
That’s primarily due to his tremendous strikeout rate, which has come down to 39% in recent weeks. While my initial reaction is that it’s still a wildly unsustainable number, his 19.5% stringing strike rate supports it. This level of performance isn’t anything new for Strider either, with a 38.3% strikeout rate in 2022 across 31 starts.
That, coupled with the matchup today, gives him a sky-high ceiling. As we’ve frequently discussed, the Twins strike out more than any team in baseball, with a 27.1% rate against righties. While they may get to him for a run or two, it hardly matters if Strider lives up to his 9.74 K Prediction.
Strider should come with heavy ownership today, but he’s the clear best play at pitcher. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections in median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Justin Verlander ($8,300) New York Mets (-175) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
There are two ways to think about Verlander’s performance this season. The first is that the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer has finally lost a step. He carries a 4.50 ERA and 20.5% strikeout rate into Monday, with underlying stats that are only slightly better.
The other is that Verlander is working back into form following a month or so missed due to injury and has had to deal with a brutal schedule in that time. I’m leaning toward that theory myself: Of Verlander’s last five starts, two have been against top-five offenses. Four have come against above-average offenses, with the lone exception being a game at Coors Field.
Between the slow start due to an injury and the difficult stretch, Verlander is likely still much better than his current stats indicate. While he’ll probably never regain his Cy Young form, he’s a good-to-elite pitcher with a winnable matchup tonight. The Brewers have a top-five strikeout rate and bottom-five wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year.
Vegas is also cautiously on JV’s side, giving the Mets solid moneyline odds and the Brewers a 3.8-run implied total. Verlander ranks second in THE BAT’s pts/sal projections while leading on FantasyLabs.
That said, our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table isn’t particularly high on Verlander’s strikeout prospects:
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Castillo ($11,000) Seattle Mariners (-260) vs. Washington Nationals
Were the gap between Castillo’s and Strider’s salaries a bit wider, we’d have a true dilemma on our hands for the top pitching option. Castillo is projecting very well, with the best Vegas odds — both moneyline and opponent implied total — on the slate.
What keeps him from challenging Strider from a raw points standpoint is his more limited strikeout upside. His K Prediction of 6.07 is in the same range as Verlander’s and well below Strider’s. While his 28.6% strikeout rate is very strong, the Nationals strike out at the lowest rate against righties of any team this season.
Therefore, for Castillo to challenge for the best score tonight, he must have an uber-efficient eight or nine-inning performance. While that’s certainly possible — especially against Washington — it’s not especially likely. Still, with an ownership discount relative to Strider, he’s worth considering in larger field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
Given the price tag on Strider and the rest of tonight’s top starters, getting this Orioles stack at a budget price makes lineup construction much more manageable. Their 5.4-run implied total is tied for the best on the slate, making the price tags even more appealing.
They’re taking on southpaw Brandon Williamson ($5,300), who brings a 5.40 ERA and even worse underlying stats to the table. Baltimore excels against left-handed pitching, with a 112 wRC+ that ranks eighth in the majors.
There’s also the option to save salary and ownership by pivoting from Rutschman to a cheaper alternative elsewhere. James McCann is also eligible at catcher and batting sixth, which would save $2,400 on DraftKings today.
While he’s not projecting as well as Rutschman, he might have even more upside. McCann exceeds Rutschman in hard hit, barrel, and fly ball rates against lefties (via the PlateIQ tool):
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Josh Jung 3B ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers (Matthew Boyd)
The Rangers are tied with Baltimore for the top implied total on the slate at 5.4 runs. While they’re considerably more expensive as a whole, they’re still worth a solid look today. That’s largely thanks to the matchup with Boyd, who has a 5.72 ERA on the season.
Jung is my choice amongst the Rangers, thanks to his splits against lefties. The PlateIQ tool makes this easy to see at a glance, with Jung leading their currently projected lineup in both wOBA and ISO against southpaws. At a reasonable salary, he is the foundation of any possible Rangers stacks.
Francisco Lindor SS ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
Lindor leads all shortstops in median and ceiling projection in THE BAT today, despite coming in at -$1,500 less than the most expensive hitter on DraftKings. That automatically makes him worth a look, especially considering the Mets’ solid 4.9-run total.
Playing Lindor and/or stacking the Mets also builds in some correlation with Verlander, furthering the case for Lindor. While he’s hitting just .221 on the season, his BABIP is 50 points off his career average, making him a solid regression candidate.
Lindor also packs some upside even without hitting for average, with 15 home runs and 9 steals through 77 games played. If he can get on base a bit more, he’ll be one of the game’s most productive shortstops.
Kevin Newman 1B/3B/SS ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin)
The light-hitting Newman is a solid salary saver on DraftKings due to his excellent platoon splits against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting nearly 100 points better against southpaws, with a .324 average on the season. With players priced for their overall production — and most of that coming against righties — he’s an obvious value choice today.
That’s particularly true on DraftKings, where he holds a 70% Bargain rating and multi-position eligibility (he’s listed exclusively at shortstop on FanDuel).
