The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Merrill Kelly ($9,600) Arizona Diamondbacks (-103) at Milwaukee Brewers
The story of Monday’s pitching slate is matchup vs. talent. The top arms on the slate are mostly in difficult matchups, while some of the less talented options are in good spots. The lone arguable exception to that statement today is Kelly, who, if you believe in his 2023 breakout, is a borderline all-star in a great matchup.
Outside of five starts in 2020, Kelly is having by far the best season of his career. It’s hard to imagine the 34-year-old making significant improvements at this stage in his career, but that’s what the numbers tell us. He has a solid 3.04 ERA, and while his leading indicators are worse, they’re still mainly on the good side of 4.00.
More impressively, he’s hit a career-high in strikeouts and swinging strike rate this season. His 26.9% strikeout rate is more than five percent above his career average, but his swinging strike rate certainly supports that progression.
The other part of the case for Kelly is the matchup vs. the Brewers, who rank 23rd in wRC+ against righties with a top-five strikeout rate. Even with Milwaukee starting their ace Corbin Burnes ($10,000), I was surprised to see Vegas make Kelly an underdog against such a poor opponent.
Burnes has the better projection in THE BAT today, but Kelly’s is higher in the FantasyLabs projections. I’m trusting the latter in this instance, especially given the massive ownership discount from Kelly.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brandon Williamson ($5,500) Cincinnati Reds (-164) vs. Colorado Rockies
Williamson isn’t having the rookie year the Reds had hoped, with a 5.40 ERA through his first six big league starts. However, he’s a solid prospect, whom FanGraphs comped to Blake Snell as a major league talent. That provides some optimism for Williamson moving forward as he adjusts to facing MLB hitters.
That’s especially true in a potential get-right spot against the Rockies. Colorado is the worst team in the majors against southpaws, with an absolutely pathetic 61 wRC+. No other team ranks below 78, so there’s a wide gap between them and the next worst team. Williamson made his debut against these Rockies, scoring over 20 DraftKings points.
Part of his poor overall stat line has been due to some tough matchups, and he’s done reasonably well against the softer teams on his schedule. With the best possible matchup in the big leagues, he should be able to pay off his minuscule salary.
He leads both projection sets in Pts/Sal, making him an excellent choice in all contest types.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
James Paxton ($9,300) Boston Red Sox (+120) at Minnesota Twins
Is vintage Paxton back? After missing most of the last two seasons — and posting ERAs over six in his limited appearances — that appears to be the case. He’s been excellent this season, with his 3.09 ERA serving as his best mark since 2017 and a strikeout rate well above 30%.
What’s even more encouraging is that his underlying numbers support those figures. His FIP is an identical 3.09, and his 14.9% swinging strike rate is a career-best. He’s also topped 100 pitches in half of his starts this season, and it’s probably fair to assume his leash only extends as the season wears on.
While he doesn’t have a Rockies-level matchup today, the Twins come into the series ranking 28th against left-handed pitching in wRC+. They also have a 27.9% strikeout rate in that split, the second highest in the majors. This is a more than winnable matchup for Paxton, despite his underdog odds.
He has as much upside as any arm on the slate but is coming in just fourth in ownership projection, making him an awesome GPP option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds feel like a fairly obvious stack tonight. They’re implied for six runs today against the Rockies, with no other team above 5.1. On top of that, they’re incredibly cheap. That could be important if trying to roster two ace pitchers on the slate or trying to jam in superstar hitters.
It’s especially helpful that this stack takes care of the catcher spot and leaves all three outfield spots open. With most of the true superstar hitters eligible at outfield on any given day, this allows for some potent lineup combinations. Today, five of the top six projected hitters in THE BAT are outfielders.
Uber-prospect Elly De La Cruz also grades out well using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
This falls firmly in the “don’t overthink it” category on a somewhat smaller slate. Pivoting to different combinations of Reds is an option for larger field GPPs, but it’s hard to see a compelling reason to fade them entirely.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Luis Robert OF ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney)
Robert fits the bill of a superstar outfielder that I mentioned previously. Chicago is an intriguing team, thanks to a matchup against the left-handed Heaney. While Chicago is a bad offense overall, their wRC+ as a team is more than 20 points higher when facing southpaws.
Robert is perhaps the biggest reason for that discrepancy. He’s hitting just .228 against righties this season but an excellent .388 against lefties. While that’s likely to be an unsustainable split, he’s consistently hit lefties better throughout his career.
He’s also unlocked the raw power that he exhibited as a prospect. Robert already has 17 home runs on the season, topping his previous career best of 13. He’ll even steal the occasional bag, giving him massive upside.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF ($6,300 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel) San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (Ryan Walker)
Tatis is another pricey outfielder I’ll be splurging on. Tatis has hit the ground running after missing the first few weeks of the season due to a PED test. He has double-digit home runs and steals through 51 games, with a solid .286 batting average.
The average should rise a bit as well, with a career-low BABIP figure of .299 that’s too low for a player with his speed. His HR/FB ratio is lower than expected as well, so we could see positive regression across the board despite his already excellent numbers.
The Padres are also facing a bullpen game from the Giants, which is generally to the offense’s advantage. Tatis leads all hitters in median projection in THE BAT on both FanDuel and DraftKings today.
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