The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an interesting seven-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
James Paxton ($9,300) Boston Red Sox (-250) vs. Colorado Rockies
Paxton is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA through his first five starts with the Red Sox. He has a strong 33.0 K% with 36 strikeouts in 26.0 innings pitched.
Paxton missed two full seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery and battling other injuries. The 34-year-old has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his five starts, scoring at least 21 DraftKings points in each.
Coming off his best start of the season, Paxton does not seem to have any durability concerns. He struck out nine batters in seven innings against the Guardians on June 6. He is the highest-rated pitcher on today’s short slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Tommy Henry ($6,200) Arizona Diamondbacks (-117) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
With a short slate, the pitching bargains are few and far between. Henry has the top Bargain Rating on today’s slate and low projected ownership against the Phillies.
Henry is 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA in eight starts this season. In his second big league season, Henry has improved his stats from his rookie campaign with a .323 xwOBA and 19.1 sweet spot %. His strikeout rate, however, has dropped to a pedestrian 14.3%.
His last two starts have been boom or bust. He scored 31.35 DraftKings points on May 31 against the Rockies with seven strikeouts in seven scoreless innings. However, he gave up five earned in 4.1 innings in his last start. He clearly has some downside, but he’s an interesting dart throw at the fourth-lowest salary on the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jesus Luzardo ($9,600) Miami Marlins (+110) at Seattle Mariners
Already in his fifth major league season, the 25-year-old Jesus Luzardo is 5-4 with a 3.79 ERA in 13 starts. He has at least seven strikeouts in each of his last five outings.
Luzardo has eight positive Plus/Minus games on the season, and he’s coming off his best fantasy performance of the year with 32.55 DraftKings points on June 6 against the Royals.
The Marlins and Mariners both have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate. Expect a low-scoring game in Seattle which should bode well for Luzardo.
You can also take advantage of Luzardo and the matchup with his strikeouts props on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox stand out as the top stack option on this short slate. Boston returns home to face Colorado after taking a series from their arch-rivals over the weekend in New York.
Among the hardest hitters in the league, Rafael Devers is in the top 7% of all batters with a 52.6% hard-hit rate and .545 xSLG. He had two home runs in the three-game weekend set with the Yankees.
Masataka Yoshida has not disappointed in his first season in American baseball. The Japanese star is batting .300/.375/.467 on the season, and 24 of his 33 RBIs have come at home.
The stack rounds out with Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, and Justin Turner. The veteran Turner is the cheapest option in the stack but still has some upside in his age-38 season. He had five hits and a home run against the Yankees in their last three games.
The Red Sox will face right-hander Connor Seabold with the Rockies. Seabold has moved between the bullpen and starting rotation this season. In seven starts and 14 total appearances, Seabold is 1-2 with a 5.10 ERA. You might think Coors Field inflates his numbers, but he actually has a worse ERA (5.40) away from Colorado. Pitching in Boston is also no picnic, so the Red Sox can do some damage in this matchup. They lead the slate with a 6.0-run implied team total.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Alex Verdugo OF ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies (Connor Seabold)
The blended projections love Verdugo, who owns the top rating on today’s slate. He is included in the featured stack but also makes for a good solo play in fantasy lineups.
Verdugo is batting .286/.360/.441 on the year with five home runs and 24 RBI. He is much stronger against right-handed pitching with a .308/.369/.503 triple-slash and a .354 wOBA. Batting at the top of the Red Sox lineup, he should have plenty of opportunities to score runs on this slate.
Nathaniel Lowe 1B ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Low had his best month of the season in May, hitting .297/.371/.396. So far in June, those numbers have dropped to .235/.341/.441.
He will look to break out of a 1-13 slump over his last four games tonight against Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson. The model gives Lowe the second-highest ceiling for first basemen on the slate behind Shohei Ohtani.
Anderson takes the mound at 3-1 with a 5.62 ERA. He has given up 10 earned runs over his last two starts. Lowe should have opportunities tonight to get back on track. He is also the rare left-handed batter who thrives against left-handed pitchers, posting a 164 wRC+ in those matchups last season.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)
Few players in the MLB have the potential ceiling of Schwarber. His all-or-nothing approach can be excellent for fantasy owners on the good days and frustrating on the bad ones.
Schwarber’s batting line (.171/.323/.430) includes a meager batting average coupled with 17 home runs and 48 walks in the first 65 games of the season.
In his last 10 games, Schwarber has two 30+ DraftKings point performances to go with five games where he scored 4.0 points or less. However, June has historically been Schwarber’s best month, owning a 149 wRC+ in that split for his career. He had a 191 wRC+ with 12 homers in June of 2022, so it’s possible he’ll heat up as the weather does.
