The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Start the week with an interesting 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Kevin Gausman ($11,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-260) vs. Washington Nationals
At the top of the salary chart today is Blue Jays stud Kevin Gausman. He has been much better than his 9-8 record with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
Gausman leads the American League with 195 strikeouts, though he hasn’t reached the 10-strikeout mark in a game since June.
The Nationals lineup looks beatable today with just one High wOBA and two High ISO hitters. Washington has four hitters that strike out more than 27% of the time against righties.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Grayson Rodriguez ($7,500) Baltimore Orioles (-250) vs. Chicago White Sox
With few great bargain options on today’s slate, Grayson Rodriguez stands out today for the Orioles. Though expectations were not sky high, he has produced six straight positive Plus/Minus results since July 22.
In his rookie season, Rodriguez is 3-3 with a 5.38 ERA in 17 starts. He allows a .341 wOBA with a 24.3 K%.
PlateIQ shows the White Sox are one of the best matchups for pitchers at this point in 2023. Chicago has a team .301 wOBA and just two High ISO hitters in the lineup. Andrew Benintendi is the only hitter in the lineup with a strikeout rate below 20% against right-handed pitching.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Bryan Woo ($7,900) Seattle Mariners (-275) vs. Oakland Athletics
The ceiling is elevated for every pitcher when they take on this Athletics lineup. Oakland has one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate today with the lowest team batting average in the league.
Bryan Woo gets the bump in fantasy expectations today. The Mariners rookie right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.58 ERA on the season. He has eight positive Plus/Minus games in 12 starts.
He allows a low 31.5 hard hit % and .305 wOBA. In two August starts, Woo has a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with nine strikeouts in 10 innings pitched.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The most potent lineup in baseball heads to the best hitter’s ballpark in the major leagues. How could this not be the stack of the day?
The Braves are led by superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. who leads the National League in both runs scored and stolen bases. His price tag is even more elevated than normal, but he has the highest ceiling of any hitter in the game.
Matt Olson now leads the National League in home runs as he continues to mash the ball and drive in Acuna Jr. He has seven home runs in August, though the last one came on August 13.
This expensive stack rounds out with Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Marcell Ozuna for the Braves. Ozuna is the hottest of the three with an incredible five home runs in his last six games.
The Braves will see Austin Gomber on the mound for the Rockies. He has a 9-9 record with a 5.48 ERA.
You can also target a potential early exit for Gomber with his under-strikeouts prop on Sleeper Fantasy. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Alex Verdugo ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
Alex Verdugo has trended up over the last week in fantasy production. Since August 18, he has six double-digit DraftKings games, including a stretch of three-straight games with a long bomb.
In 2023, Verdugo is batting .278/.342/.446 overall with 12 home runs and 51 RBI. He prefers right-handed pitching with a .366 wOBA and .195 ISO.
Today, Verdugo faces righty Cristian Javier and the Astros. Javier has a strong 9-2 record, but his 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP are more enticing for hitters.
Adley Rutschman ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox (Michael Kopech)
The talented young Orioles catcher is a menace to opposing pitchers from both sides of the plate. In his second big league season, Adley Rutschman is batting .274/.366/.423 with 16 home runs and 61 RBI.
Rutschman has five double-digit DraftKings performances in his last 10 games, without the help of a long bomb. His .286 xBA is top-10% in the league and he has a high 12.7 walk rate.
The Orioles take on Michael Kopech and the White Sox. Kopech is 5-11 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
Brenton Doyle ($2,900 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder)
Taking a lottery ticket shot on a Rockies home game is normally a decent bet. Brenton Doyle has five of his eight home runs at home this season and is better against righties with a .333 wOBA and .462 SLG.
Overall, Doyle is batting .248/.316/.564 in his rookie season in Colorado. This is the first time his DraftKings salary has dipped below $3,000 for a home game since August 2.
He faces right-hander Bryce Elder on the mound for the Braves. The 24-year-old is 10-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Doyle is purely an intelligent guess with the high park factor.
