The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Spencer Strider ($10,900) Atlanta Braves (-275) vs. Miami Marlins
This one is pretty obvious. Strider leads THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections in both median and ceiling by a fairly wide margin. He has the best opponent implied run total (by half a run) and the best moneyline odds on the slate, plus he’s projected for a two-strikeout lead over his closest competition.
He’s been lights out this season, averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game with a 40% strikeout rate and 2.45 ERA. What’s even more impressive is that his underlying metrics support those numbers, with a swinging strike rate over 18% and a 2.81 xERA.
The matchup with Miami isn’t one to run from either, as they have a below-average wRC+ against right-handed pitching while ranking 12th in strikeout rate. Strider will carry ridiculous ownership today, but finding a case to fade him is a near-impossible task
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jose Suarez ($5,800) Los Angeles Angels (-210) vs. Oakland A’s
To say Suarez hasn’t been great this year is a bit of an understatement, as he’s averaging negative 0.2 PPG on DraftKings. However, he hasn’t been as bad as those numbers would suggest.
His 11.1% strikeout rate is due for a significant bump, thanks to a 9.3% swinging strike rate. Quick math suggests he should be striking out around 20% of the hitters he faces; not great, but serviceable at his price tag. His ERA indicators are all in the low six range, which is bad but considerably better than his 9.26 ERA.
The real appeal is the matchup, as the A’s are a considerable reduction in difficulty relative to his previous games against the Yankees and Mariners (he’s also faced the Nationals.) Oakland has been roughly league-average against lefties this season, but it’s still not a great lineup.
Ultimately, the most compelling evidence for Suarez is the Vegas lines. We rarely get a -200 or better favorite below $6,000 on DraftKings, and he stands out as the best per-dollar option using both projection systems.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tommy Henry ($5,000) Arizona Diamondbacks (-132) vs. Kansas City Royals
The logic on Henry is similar to that on Suarez. Henry got called up to replace Madison Bumgarner in the Diamondbacks rotation after making nine starts in 2022. He was pretty bad that season, with a 5.36 ERA, though that’s still far better than Suarez this year.
Crucially, he has an even better matchup against the Royals. Kansas City has an 89 wRC+ against lefties on the season, a full 17 points below Oakland. They also strike out at a higher clip, making this an all-around better spot. While Henry isn’t likely to get the same level of run support, pitcher wins are relatively unpredictable and a small part of their overall projections.
Despite all the evidence pointing to Henry as the slightly better play than Suarez, his projected ownership is a bit lower in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections. That’s enough to sell me on him for GPPs, though it’s a closer call in cash games.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
While I mentioned above that Henry isn’t likely to get Angels-level run support from the Diamondbacks, Arizona still has the second-highest team total on the slate. Despite that, their top five hitters come in at just over $20,000 in total salary.
That’s a great deal against the Royals’ Brad Keller ($7,500), who has a 3.00 ERA on the season but ERA indicators roughly two runs higher. Betting markets are giving us a clear sign with the Diamondbacks 5.3-run implied total that Keller is due for some regression.
However, Arizona is too cheap for their likeliest outcome here, making them an excellent choice in cash games and GPPs. Plus, there’s some slight value in their correlation with Henry, as a productive day offensively boosts his chances of the four-point win bonus.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
William Contreras C ($3,800 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers (Matthew Boyd)
The Brewers have a solid 4.8-rin implied total today against the Tigers, with Contreras likely to be a significant part of that. He’s expected to bat cleanup for Milwaukee, making his $3,800 price tag at a position of scarce production a solid value on Monday.
Contreras is on the right side of his platoon splits against the lefty Boyd in a significant way. He’s hit .308 against southpaws in his career, compared to just .251 against right-handed pitching. Coupling that with Boyd’s poor form lately makes this an outstanding matchup for Contreras.
Taylor Ward OF ($4,900 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland A’s (Ken Waldichuk)
Ward is leading off for the team with the slate’s highest implied total, which in and of itself makes him worthy of consideration. While we should expect the bulk of that total to be driven by Mike Trout and Shoehei Ohtani, Ward should also play a role.
Hitting in front of the Angels’ superstars is a great position to be in, as he gets more pitches to hit and plenty of run-scoring opportunities should he find himself on base. He’s a cheaper way to get exposure to the explosive Angels offense and should also be somewhat less popular on DraftKings.
That ownership discount disappears on FanDuel but is more than made up for by his ridiculous 95% Bargain Rating.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)
The Royals’ budding superstar is only hitting .256 to start the season, but he already has four home runs and five steals through 22 games. He’s on pace for a 30/30 season, with that speed/power combination giving him massive daily upside for DFS.
While I’m high on Henry as a pitching option today, that doesn’t mean I expect him to stifle the entirety of the Royals’ lineup. They could even be played together in larger GPPs as a way to get contrarian since we don’t need a massive score from Henry to pay off his price tag.
That will be my strategy for some of my lineups today, as Witt’s projections are too good to pass up. He leads the position in median points in both sets of projections while coming in cheaper than a few players on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Witt also grades out well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
