The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jacob deGrom ($10,100) Texas Rangers (-210) at Kansas City Royals
At this point, I could pretty much copy and paste the deGrom writeup every fifth day. It’s hard to find much more to say about the Rangers ace, who’s been the best pitcher in baseball as long as he’s managed to stay on the field. That’s been a significant issue with deGrom, who hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2019, but that’s why we play DFS instead of season-long.
While deGrom has an ERA of just over 4.00 to start the season, that’s entirely a result of bad luck. His SIERA and xFIP are under 2.00, and most of those runs came in one lousy outing to start the season. He’s still averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game, with a strikeout rate above 40%.
That strikeout rate sounds like it should be due for some regression, but this is the third consecutive season he’s topped that mark. His 19.4% swinging strike rate more than supports that result — he might just be that good. He has the best Vegas Data on the slate, with Kansas City implied for just 3.1 runs.
deGrom will be massively owned today, but it would take nerves of steel to fade him in such an appealing matchup. Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also like deGrom to pile up the strikeouts:
MLB DFS Value Picks
Chris Flexen ($5,600) Seattle Mariners (+125) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Flexen got torched his last time out, allowing eight runs in just over two innings against the Cubs. That’s why we’re getting him at a bargain-basement price today, as his Mariners host the Brewers.
His 2023 numbers are inflated from that start, but his career statistics are much better. Since spending the 2020 season in Korea, he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA with comparable indicators since returning to the big leagues. He’s not a big strikeout guy with a 16% career rate, but he’s a fairly reliable innings eater.
There’s nothing exciting about playing Flexen today, but saving some salary is crucial with an expensive stud pitcher and a game at Coors Field. Flexen is the best pitching option to do just that. He trails only deGrom in Pts/Sal projections in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Corbin Burnes ($8,800) Milwaukee Brewers (-149) at Seattle Mariners
Burnes is projecting head-and-shoulders ahead of every non-deGrom pitcher today, with a 22-point median projection in the FantasyLabs models. He’s too cheap for his usual production, with his salary depressed by a pair of bad starts to open the 2023 campaign. He righted the ship last time, though, with a 36.2-point DraftKings performance.
That most recent game is much closer to his production from the past few seasons. Burnes has topped a 30% strikeout rate in every season since 2020, with his highest full-season ERA in that span at 2.94. In 2022, he didn’t have a DraftKings salary lower than $9,500 other than Opening Day. That’s a clear sign we’re getting a value here.
Of course, it’s a tricky matchup against a solid Mariners offense. However, betting markets have landed squarely on the Burnes side, with Seatlle implied for just 3.5 runs. That’s the lowest mark outside of the Royals against deGrom, despite three other pitchers having higher price tags.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies are in Coors Field, with a massive 6.6-run implied team total. While they’ve struggled offensively to start the season, a home matchup against 43-year-old Rich Hill — who has an ERA in the sevens to start the season — should be just what the doctor ordered.
Hill is also a lefty, which boosts some of the Rockies’ top hitters. Bryant has a career OPS .130 better against lefties, with Cron and Diaz on the positive side of their platoon splits as well. Of course, stacking the Rockies means hoping for a scenario where they chase Hill early, so there’s no need to fade Blackmon, either.
Colorado will be the chalk today, but their reasonable salaries and excellent projections are hard to pass up. For larger GPPs, non-traditional stacks, including lower-order Rockies hitters, could be a solid pivot.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B ($3,800 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
Of course, the Rockies aren’t the only team playing at Coors Field tonight. The visiting Pirates also get a huge projection boost, thanks to a 5.7-run implied total. While there’s plenty of value to be found in their lineup, Hayes might be the best option.
He’s far too cheap for a leadoff hitter with a team total that high. He’s also another hitter with strong platoon splits against lefties, and the Rockies’ starter is southpaw Kyle Freeland. Hayes is due for some significant regression, as his .196 BABIP is far too low for a player with his speed: he stole 20 bases last season.
Hayes checks all the boxes here: Vegas data, platoon splits, and regression candidate. All of that, plus the location of this one, makes him a top option.
Mookie Betts 2B/OF ($5,900 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
Betts is one of the hitters we could make a case for every single day. There are not really bad times to play him, just varying degrees of good. Today stands out as one of the better options.
On DraftKings, restoring his eligibility at second base means he can fit around Rockies stacks. Their salaries make it difficult, but rostering a cheaper pitcher like Flexen makes it feasible. Betts’ salary on DraftKings also means he should go a bit overlooked today: THE BAT has him projected for single-digit ownership.
On FanDuel, he’s far too cheap for a player with his production. He has a 97% Bargain Rating and will be hard to fade, given the solid matchup.
