The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Friday’s slate is jam-packed with high-end pitchers, with four starters checking in at $10,000 or more on DraftKings. That said, the best pitching option per THE BAT comes from a bit further down the pricing spectrum. Max Fried leads all starters in median and ceiling projection, and he ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Fried’s season got off to a late start, but he has been absolute nails since suiting up for Atlanta. He’s pitched to an unreal 0.45 ERA through his first 20 innings, and while that’s clearly not sustainable, his advanced stats also paint a pretty picture. His Statcast data is absolutely elite, ranking in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity, 94th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile in barrel rate. If opposing batters can’t square up your pitches, it’s hard for them to do much damage. Fried ultimately owns an xERA of 1.81, which leads all pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this season.
Fried draws a tough matchup Friday vs. the Orioles, who currently rank third in wRC+ vs. southpaws. However, he’s still getting tons of respect from Vegas. He checks in as a -220 favorite, while the O’s 3.5 implied run total is the fourth-lowest mark on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.11 (per the Trends tool).
Fried is simply too cheap on DraftKings given how well he’s pitched to start the year. The conversation isn’t quite as cut-and-dry on FanDuel, but he’s a very tough fade at just $8,200.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Things have not gone as well as Sean Manaea and the Giants had hoped to start the year. He signed a two-year, $25M deal with San Francisco in the offseason, but he’s been one of the worst starters in the league so far this season. He’s posted a 7.85 ERA, 8.20 xERA, and 7.62 FIP, and he’s struggled with his control and the longball. He’s surrendering 5.4 walks per nine innings and 2.95 homers per nine innings, both of which are easily the worst marks of his career.
Manaea has always been a slightly overvalued pitcher, but he has a proven track record in the major leagues. He’s likely due for some improvement moving forward, especially if he can get his walks under control.
That could start on Friday. He draws a matchup with the Brewers, who have been an absolute dream opponent for southpaws to start the year. They rank dead last in wRC+ in that split, and they also boast a 30.8% strikeout rate. Manaea has generated plenty of strikeouts this season, averaging 10.31 per nine innings, so he should be able to pile up the whiffs in this spot.
Manaea is a slight underdog against Corbin Burnes, but his opponent implied run total of 4.2 isn’t bad for his salary. He’s dirt cheap at just $5,600, and he has plenty of appeal at that figure. He leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus, making him the perfect SP2 for tournaments.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
I don’t blame you if you want nothing to do with the Mets at the moment, who were just swept by the lowly Tigers. That said, Kodai Senga is the largest favorite on the slate at -250, and he draws an outstanding matchup vs. the Rockies. They cannot hit outside of Coors Field, ranking 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers on the road. Senga also has plenty of strikeout upside, racking up 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings for the year. Maybe he’s the guy that can finally stop the bleeding in New York. He’s particularly appealing at $9,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Is Chris Sale back? His recent results suggest it’s possible. He’s had two starts with at least 40 FanDuel points in his past three outings, including an 11-strikeout gem vs. the Twins. His other performance wasn’t nearly as impressive, surrendering five runs in five innings vs. the Orioles, but we’ve already discussed how good they are against southpaws. Sale’s FIP in that outing also checked in at 3.96, so he got a bit unlucky from a batted-ball perspective. Friday’s matchup vs. the Phillies is friendlier, with Philly ranking just 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws. His 6.57 K Prediction also ranks third on the slate, and he’s projected for less than 15% ownership on DraftKings. That makes him a very interesting tournament pivot.
Corbin Burnes’ Vegas data is pretty unsurprising for his price tag, but he boasts the top strikeout upside on the slate. The Giants’ projected lineup has whiffed in 32.1% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, easily the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Burnes’ strikeout numbers have been down to start the year, but he still leads the slate with a massive 7.89 K Prediction. Burnes has also started to look more like himself recently, pitching to a 3.16 FIP or better in three of his past four outings.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals having the top stack on the slate is not something you see every day. However, they lead the slate with a 5.6-run implied team total, and they draw an outstanding matchup vs. southpaw Kyle Muller. He’s pitched to a 6.28 ERA and a 7.48 xERA through his first six starts, and he’s walking nearly as many as he’s striking out. Walks have been an issue for Muller since making his professional debut with the Braves in 2021, surrendering an average of just under five free passes per nine innings for his career.
When Muller does put the ball in the strike zone, opposing batters have done significant damage against him. He ranks in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, resulting in some truly terrible underlying metrics. He 7.48 xERA puts him in the fifth percentile, while his .547 xSLG is in the eighth.
The Royals’ offense has been average against southpaws for the year, but they have some quality fantasy options. M.J. Melendez is a Statcast demon, posting a 57.6% hard-hit rate and a 95.3 mile-per-hour average exit velocity for the year. Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the fastest players in baseball, making him a massive threat to steal a base or two. Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and Edward Olivares all have plenty of power, with all three players boasting an xSLG of at least .500.
This stack is also extremely affordable, costing an average of just $4,000 per player. They should be a popular stack target on this slate, but it’s easy to see why.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
J.J. Bleday OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (Brad Keller)
The Royals will get most of the attention in this matchup, but the A’s have some appeal in their own right. They’re implied for 4.7 runs vs. Keller, who has a 4.76 xERA for the year. Bleday was acquired by the A’s in the offseason in a trade with the Marlins, and the No. 4 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft has struggled to live up to expectations. However, he posted a 149 wRC+ in Triple-A this season, and he launched a homer Thursday vs. the Mariners. It’s possible that he’s finally made the leap, but he’s still priced at or near the minimum across the industry. He’s a fine choice for lineups that are looking to pay up for two expensive pitchers.
Brett Baty 3B ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies (Antonio Senzatela)
The Mets’ offense has sputtered recently, but they’re implied for a healthy 5.2 runs Friday vs. Senzatela. He’s yet to make a start in 2023, but he posted a 5.24 xERA across 92.1 innings in 2022. That figure was also worse on the road than at Coors Field, so he wasn’t necessarily a victim of poor circumstances. Baty has been one of the Mets’ top producers since being called up to the big leagues, posting a 139 wRC+. His xwOBA is also slightly higher than his actual mark, so he has the potential for improvement moving forward. The only thing keeping him from being an excellent value on this slate is his spot in the batting order, but using Baty in Mets’ stacks is a viable strategy.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF/SS ($5,900 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Tatis is arguably the best source of leverage on this slate. He has the sixth-highest ceiling projection in our MLB Models, but he’s projected for around 3.5% ownership against Kershaw. It’s obviously a brutal matchup, but Tatis is matchup-proof. He’s been particularly strong against southpaws for his career, posting a 160 wRC+ in those matchups. Tatis has two homers in 20 career plate appearances vs. Kershaw, so he can clearly find success in this spot.
