The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
It is a great day to pay up for a stud pitcher. Some of the best arms in baseball will be on the mound, including Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole. However, both players are very expensive, checking in at $12,000 or more on DraftKings, and neither player has an ideal matchup. Cole gets the best offense in baseball in the Rays, while Strider has to deal with the Blue Jays.
With that in mind, Corbin Burnes checks in as the best value in the stud tier per THE BAT. It hasn’t been the best start to the year for Burnes, who has pitched to a 3.86 ERA and a 4.29 FIP through his first seven starts. More concerningly, his K/9 has plummeted all the way to 7.26. Burnes has struck out at least 10.83 batters per nine innings over the past three years, so his current figure represents a massive reduction.
However, a matchup vs. the Royals could be just what the doctor ordered. They rank just 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they also boast the eighth-highest strikeout rate.
Burnes’ Vegas data in this matchup is absolutely elite. He leads all pitchers with -240 moneyline odds, while his 3.5 opponent implied run total is tied for the best mark on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas marks have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.13 (per the Trends tool).
It remains to be seen if Burnes is still the same pitcher that he was in his prime, but this is as good a spot as any to find out. He provides similar median and ceiling projections to Cole and Strider, and he does it at approximately -$3,000 less.
MLB DFS Value Pick
The A’s pitching staff has been an absolute nightmare this season. They’ve pitched to a 7.34 ERA as a team, which is almost impossibly bad. To put that in perspective, the White Sox rank 29th in that department, and they’re nearly two full runs better at 5.67. Overall, the gap between the A’s and White Sox is larger than the gap between the White Sox and 13th-ranked Blue Jays.
They’ll turn to Ken Waldichuk on Friday, who has definitely been a part of the problem. He owns just a 7.25 ERA across his seven outings, and he’s been victimized by both walks and homers. He’s allowing 4.5 free passes per nine innings, which is compounded by his average of 3.0 homers per nine innings. It’s tough to survive handing out free passes if guys are swatting it over the fence with that much regularity.
As bad as all that sounds, there are some positives with Waldichuk on Friday. For starters, his Statcast data is actually solid. He ranks in the 72nd percentile in average exit velocity and 68th percentile in hard-hit rate. He also has a solid pedigree, entering the year as the No. 88 prospect per FanGraphs. Waldichuk had plenty of success in the minors, especially at inducing strikeouts, so he’s a candidate for improvement moving forward.
That could start Friday vs. the Rangers. Their projected lineup has whiffed in 26.6% of at-bats against southpaws over the past 12 months, which is the fourth-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Waldichuk’s K Prediction checks in at a very respectable 6.11, which is an excellent mark for his price tag. He’s dirt cheap at $6,000 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.18.
Waldichuk leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT, and he’s projected for right around 10% ownership on DraftKings. That makes him an excellent SP2 for tournaments.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
If you’re looking to pay up for one of the two mega studs at pitcher, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel. Both Strider and Cole own Bargain Ratings of 94%, and the gap between them and Burnes isn’t nearly as wide. Of the two, Strider seems like the better GPP play, given the gap in projected ownership. He’s expected to be rostered in roughly 12% of FanDuel lineups, while Cole is at 23%. Strider’s strikeout upside is also unmatched – he’s averaged 15.08 strikeouts per nine innings this season – so he has the highest ceiling basically every time he takes the mound.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also likes Strider to mow down the Blue Jays:
Kyle Bradish is another potential value option to consider at pitcher. He doesn’t grade out quite as well as Waldichuk from a strikeout perspective, but his Vegas data is much better. He’s a -155 favorite vs. the Pirates, who are implied for just 4.2 runs. That gives him a much safer floor.
MacKenzie Gore has come into his own this season, pitching to a 3.65 ERA and an 11.68 K/9 through his first seven starts. He’s expected to get virtually no attention on a slate with plenty of aces, but he draws an advantageous matchup vs. the slumping Mets. Their lineup has plenty of talent on paper, but they couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat at the moment. Gore racked up 10 strikeouts while allowing just one run in his first matchup vs. the Mets this season, so he’s a very interesting leverage play in GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
In addition to all the stud pitchers to consider, this is also a Coors Field slate. That means DFS players will likely have to choose between rostering a stud pitcher and loading up on big-time bats.
The Phillies will get their chance at Coors Field on Friday, and their offense leads the slate with a 6.2-run implied team total. Their offense has underperformed to start the year, but they have tons of guys throughout their lineup who are capable of doing damage. The return of Bryce Harper only makes them more dangerous, and Harper has posted a 141 wRC+ through his first seven games this season.
They’ll square off with left-hander Austin Gomber, who is an extremely hittable pitcher. He owns a 6.75 ERA and a 6.65 xERA this season, and he’s been an unmitigated disaster at Coors Field. He’s allowed 15 earned runs across 12.2 innings, and opposing batters have managed a .450 wOBA against him.
His biggest struggles have unsurprisingly come against right-handed batters. They’ve posted a .483 wOBA against him in Coors this season, and he’s allowed 11 extra-base hits in that split. That’s more than one per inning!
Harper and Kyle Schwarber – the Phillies’ two most intimidating hitters – are left-handed, but Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos will all have the splits advantage. Replacing one of the Phillies’ stud left-handers with Alec Bohm is also viable and will save a solid chunk of salary.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Triston Casas 1B ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
Casas is considered a big-time hitting prospect, and he leads all batters in our blended set in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus. He hasn’t had the best start at the dish this season, posting an 84 wRC+, but he has displayed plenty of power. Eight of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases, with five of them leaving the yard. The Red Sox also rank second on the slate with a 5.8-run implied team total, so Casas has massive appeal on DraftKings given his 98% Bargain Rating.
Kyle Tucker OF ($5,300 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox (Michael Kopech)
While Casas provides value on DraftKings, Tucker stands out in a major way on FanDuel. His $3,000 salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, and he’s one of the most undervalued bats in fantasy. He’s capable of doing damage with his bat and on the bases, evidenced by his 30 homers and 25 steals last season. He also draws an excellent matchup vs. Kopech, who has pitched to a 5.97 ERA and a 7.53 FIP in 2023.
Dylan Carlson OF ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox (James Paxton)
If we’re going to load up on Coors Field and/or a stud pitcher, we’re going to need to find some value to round out our lineups. Carlson fits that description in the outfield, particularly on DraftKings. The former top prospect has not had a great start to the year, but the switch-hitter has always fared well against left-handed pitchers. He owns a 134 wRC+ in that split for his career, so he has some upside against Paxton, who will be making his first MLB start in more than two years.
