The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
There are some big-name pitchers on Friday’s slate, but Shohei Ohtani is undoubtedly the biggest. He’s the biggest name any time he’s on the field, and he’ll be on the bump for Friday’s matchup vs. the Mariners.
The modern-day Babe Ruth hasn’t been quite as dominant on the mound this season, but his numbers are still impressive. Specifically, his average of 12.17 strikeouts per nine innings makes him one of the top strikeout artists in baseball. He ranks in the 93rd percentile for strikeout rate, which is the best mark of his career.
His batted ball profile is also excellent. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 88th percentile in hard-hit rate, so batters aren’t doing a ton of damage when they manage to make contact. His 3.30 ERA doesn’t jump off the page like his 2.33 mark from last season, but his advanced metrics suggest some room for improvement.
Ohtani’s Vegas data isn’t great in this matchup, particularly his -120 moneyline odds. However, most of that stems from Luis Castillo making the start for the Mariners. Offensively, the Mariners’ implied team total of 3.7 runs is still tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate, so they’re not expected to do a ton of scoring.
However, Ohtani really stands out from a strikeout perspective. The Mariners have the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and their projected lineup has whiffed in 27.1% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Ohtani’s resulting K Prediction of 8.18 is the top mark on the slate by more than a full strikeout.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also very bullish on Ohtani’s strikeout prospects:
Overall, Ohtani leads THE BAT in ceiling projection, despite boasting just the third-highest salary on DraftKings. That’s a nice combination.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jordan Montgomery has had an up-and-down season for the Cardinals after dominating in St. Louis last year. That said, he is far from the Cardinals’ biggest concern. His 3.95 FIP and 3.98 xFIP are still quality marks, and he’s averaging just over eight strikeouts per nine innings.
He draws an intriguing matchup Friday vs. the Reds, who are the talk of baseball at the moment. They just called up uber-prospect Elly De La Cruz, who can do ridiculous things to baseballs:
https://twitter.com/theScore/status/1666588684328529920
Still, Montgomery is getting plenty of respect from Vegas in this matchup. The Reds’ implied total of 3.6 runs is the lowest mark on the slate, while Montgomery and the Cardinals are solid -175 favorites. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.53 (per the Trends tool).
The Reds’ lineup also has plenty of swing-and-miss potential. Their projected lineup has the second-worst splits-adjusted strikeout rate over the past 12 months, and they rank eighth in strikeout rate vs. left-handers this season. Cincinnati was shutout but a left-hander in Clayton Kershaw on Thursday, and while Montgomery obviously isn’t Kershaw, he can have success in this matchup.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tyler Wells has quietly been an excellent fantasy option of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.23 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings, and he’s racked up at least 23.1 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts. However, he’s actually gotten cheaper over that time frame, and his current salary comes with an 80% Bargain Rating. His matchup vs. the Royals is elite, with Kansas City ranking 29th in wRC+ and fifth in strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Overall, he leads all pitchers in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
Adrian Houser is a very intriguing punt play at just $6,000 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s scored at least 18.15 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He draws one of the best possible matchups Friday vs. the A’s, resulting in -250 moneyline odds. It’s rare to get someone this cheap as such a massive favorite, but those pitchers have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.36. Houser is not a strikeout pitcher, but he also provides a bit more upside than usual in that department. The A’s projected lineup has whiffed in 30.3% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Dylan Cease has not been nearly as effective as he was last year, mainly due to an increased walk rate. However, he’s still capable of racking strikeouts in bunches. The Marlins aren’t a great matchup for strikeouts – they’re 22nd in strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers – but their offense isn’t great overall. They’re 21st in wRC+ vs. traditional pitchers this season, so Cease has some sneaky appeal for tournaments. He’s projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings, so he’s an interesting pivot off the chalkier pitchers like Ohtani, Montgomery, and Wells.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the San Diego Padres:
Slam Diego is officially back. Well, kind of. Their offense still isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, but they at least have their three top dogs all in the lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Manny Machado are as formidable a top-three as you’ll find in all of baseball, especially with Soto coming alive over the past month. He posted a 202 wRC+ in May, which was a very encouraging sign for a player who had struggled a bit over the previous 12 months.
Gary Sanchez has also given them a spark behind the plate. Sanchez has spent time with a bunch of different organizations this season, but he’s officially caught on in San Diego. He’s homered in four of his nine games, adding two doubles, three singles, and three walks. Overall, he has a 1.168 OPS, and while that’s unsustainable, Sanchez was previously considered one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. It’s possible that he’s turned things around, and if that’s the case, one of the scariest lineups in baseball only gets scarier.
San Diego has plenty of appeal on most slates, and a trip to Coors Field is certainly no exception. Their implied team total of 6.5 runs is the top mark on the slate, and they have a dream matchup vs. southpaw Austin Gomber. Gomber has pitched to a 6.99 ERA and 7.24 xERA this season, and his numbers are unsurprisingly worse at Coors. He’s surrendered an OPS of more than 1.000 at home this season, making every batter look like a potential Hall of Famer.
Gomber’s biggest struggles have come against right-handed batters, and the Padres have plenty of imposing righties. Soto is the only player that won’t have the splits advantage vs. Gomber, and he’s still posted an above-average wRC+ against southpaws this season. Soto will likely see a handful of at-bats against relievers in this contest, so the lefty-lefty matchup isn’t much cause for concern. The Padres will be very chalky in this matchup, but their upside is undeniable.
Their top five batters all look really appealing using the new PlateIQ tool:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tucupita Marcano SS/2B ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets (Tylor Megill)
Finding some salary savers is always important on slates with Coors Field and stud pitchers, and Marcano stands out as an elite value on DraftKings. He’s expected to bat leadoff against Megill, who has been hit extremely hard this season. He posted a 5.28 ERA in May, and he owns a 5.80 xERA across 12 starts this season. Overall, Megill ranks in the 10th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, and he’s in the 20th percentile in xSLG. Marcano has displayed some offensive ability for the Pirates this season, posting a 112 wRC+ across 123 plate appearances. That includes a 133 wRC+ and a .228 ISO against right-handers.
Seth Brown OF/1B ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
Brown stands out as the top non-Coors value in our blended projections, leading the way in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Brown has an extra-base hit in each of his past three games, and he was a quality hitter for the A’s last season. He posted a 117 wRC+, and while he hasn’t gotten off to a great start this season, it’s over a relatively small sample size. His wRC+ is up to 138 in June, and he’s making solid contact. He’s on pace for career highs in average exit velocity and barrell rate, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Houser. Most of the A’s top hitters stand out as solid values on Friday, so they’re an interesting contrarian stack for tournaments.
Bryce Harper 1B/OF ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Michael Grove)
The Phillies remain extremely cheap on FanDuel, and Harper specifically comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Harper hasn’t displayed much power since returning to the Phillies lineup, but his on-base percentage is sitting at .390. Power hasn’t been an issue for Harper in the past, and when he eventually rediscovers his stroke, he’s going to provide immense value. That could happen Friday vs. Grove, who has pitched to an 8.14 ERA across 21 innings this season. He’s also surrendered 1.71 homers per nine innings, and he’s been bludgeoned by left-handed batters. Lefties have posted a .490 wOBA vs. Grove, and they’ve clubbed three homers and three doubles in just 8.2 innings.
