The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
There are a healthy number of high-priced pitching options on Friday, with six starters checking in at $9,200 or more on DraftKings. That said, none of them grade out as a truly elite option. Only one of those six pitchers has a K Prediction above six (Kodai Senga), and his opponent implied team total sits at a whopping 5.0 runs.
With that in mind, going down slightly to Joe Musgrove seems like the best option. He provides a bit of salary relief at $8,800, and he has arguably the best matchup of the day. He’s taking on the Nationals, who rank merely 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. As a result, Musgrove’s Vegas data is fantastic: 3.3 opponent implied team total, -290 moneyline odds. No team has a lower implied team total than the Nats, while Musgrove is the second-largest favorite of the day. Unsurprisingly, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.73 (per the Trends tool).
Musgrove has had a tumultuous start to the 2023 season, with his 4.22 ERA nearly a run and a half higher than his mark from 2022. That said, his 3.10 xERA is actually better than his mark from last season. He seems like a strong positive regression candidate moving forward, and the Nationals are a great place for that to start.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Emmet Sheehan is set to make his second career start on Friday. Things went well in his first outing, holding the Giants scoreless across six innings. He clearly had some good luck in that outing – not a single ball in play landed for a base hit – but his 3.27 FIP is still pretty encouraging.
Sheehan stands out as a solid value option at just $6,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He didn’t display much strikeout upside in his first outing, but he pitched to an elite 14.85 K/9 across 53.1 innings in Double-A this season. There’s obviously a huge difference between Double-A and MLB hitting, but the strikeouts should come eventually.
Sheehan draws a matchup vs. the Astros on Friday, which is a tough one on paper. That said, the Astros are not nearly as intimidating in 2023 as they have been in the past. They rank just 16th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and things only figure to get worse with Yordan Alvarez on the shelf. The top of the Astros’ projected lineup is still formidable, but the bottom half is rife for the taking for right-handed pitchers (via PlateIQ):
Vegas is showing Sheehan some respect in this spot, with his 4.0 opponent implied run total ranking as the fifth-lowest mark on the slate. All of the pitchers with better marks are priced at $8,800 or more, so he stands out as a strong salary-saver at SP2.
Unfortunately, our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table isn’t quite as bullish on Sheehan, at least from a strikeout perspective:
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Dane Dunning is another potential value to consider on DraftKings, where his $5,700 salary comes with a 95% Bargain Rating. He’s taking on the Yankees, whose lineup is pretty meager without Aaron Judge. They’ve also struggled against right-handers of late, with six of their nine projected starters owning a wOBA of .290 or worse in that split over the past 30 days. Dunning has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.29 over his past 10 starts, despite routinely being priced significantly higher than he is on Friday. He doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value at his current salary.
Musgrove is expected to be the most popular pitcher on the slate, but Chris Bassitt checks a lot of the same boxes at just $400 more. He’s the largest favorite on the slate at -300, while his 3.4 opponent implied team total is just slightly higher than Musgrove’s. Bassitt’s matchup vs. the A’s is also far friendlier from a strikeout perspective. While the Nationals’ projected lineup has whiffed in just 19.8% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, the A’s projected lineup is at 29.0%. That’s the second-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. With that in mind, Bassitt arguably has a higher ceiling than Musgrove, making him a solid pivot for GPPs.
Shane Bieber is another strong leverage option on this slate. He’s not the same pitcher that he was in his prime, particularly from a strikeout perspective. He’s averaging just 6.54 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is less than half of what he averaged during his Cy Young-winning campaign in 2020. That said, he’s projected for less than 8% ownership on FanDuel despite a solid 75% Bargain Rating. He has more strikeout upside than usual vs. the Brewers, who rank fourth in the league in strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers, while his 3.8-run opponent implied team total trails only Musgrove, Bassitt, and Logan Webb.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels will head to Coors Field on Friday, which is obviously a huge boost to their fantasy profile. Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly venue in all of baseball, and they’re implied for a healthy 6.5 runs on this slate. The Blue Jays rank second with a 6.0-run implied total, so the Angels lead the way by a pretty healthy margin.
Of course, the Angels are an expensive offense to begin with, so they’re going to set you back quite a bit in the thin mountain air. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout cost at least $6,500 apiece, while Brandon Drury, Hunter Renfroe, and Taylor Ward all cost between $4,400 and $5,000. That doesn’t leave you a ton of cap space for the rest of your lineup, but all five players have tremendous ceilings in this spot.
They’re taking on Kyle Freeland, who hasn’t been a disaster this season. He’s pitched to a 4.48 ERA and a 4.87 xERA, and he’s been markedly better at home than on the road. However, Freeland pitched to a 6.00 ERA at Coors in 2022, so it seems unlikely that he keeps it up for much longer.
The southpaw has unsurprisingly been far worse against right-handed batters than lefties, and four of the Angels’ top five hitters are right-handed. They haven’t exactly excelled in that split this season, but guys like Renfroe and Drury have historically crushed southpaws for their careers.
Ohtani is the only lefty batter, and he’s so good that splits don’t really matter. In fact, Ohtani owns the highest ISO and wOBA in this stack against southpaws for the year. It might be tempting to consider avoiding Ohtani for a much cheaper righty, but that’s probably a mistake.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ezequiel Tovar SS ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
The Rockies don’t have the same offensive prowess as the Angels, and their 5.3-run implied team total is significantly lower. That said, they get all the same benefits from Coors Field, and their offense is significantly cheaper. Tovar stands out as one of their best options as the projected No. 2 hitter. Tovar entered the year as the No. 43 prospect per FanGraphs, and while much of that is based on his elite defense, he provides a smidge of upside at the dish. He’s been at his best when facing a southpaw at Coors, posting a 122 wRC+ in that split. His ISO also jumps to .333 in those matchups, so this is an excellent opportunity to target the talented youngster.
Brandon Belt 1B/OF ($2,500 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics (James Kaprielian)
Given the Blue Jays’ gaudy implied team total, getting their expected No. 3 hitter at just $2,500 feels like a steal. Belt is having a resurgent season in his first year in Toronto, posting a 128 wRC+. Unsurprisingly, most of his damage has come against right-handed pitchers, with Belt boasting a 139 wRC+ with four homers in that split. Like most of the A’s pitchers, Kaprielian has struggled mightily this season, posting a 6.38 ERA across 55 innings. His advanced metrics aren’t quite as awful, but the Blue Jays don’t feel like the best matchup for him to turn things around. He’s surrendered a .382 wOBA and a .510 slugging percentage to lefty batters this season, so this sets up as an awesome spot for Belt.
Manny Machado 3B ($5,300 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Corbin takes the mound for the Nationals on Friday, which means you’re free to target the Padres’ batters at will. Corbin’s traditional ERA isn’t quite as bad as last season, but his 6.31 xERA is still an abomination. Machado is priced at a massive discount at $2,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He has always performed well against left-handed pitchers, and he owns a .422 wOBA in that split this season. This is simply too good a price to pass up.
