The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
For such a massive slate, the top pitching options are surprisingly weak. No starter has a median projection of even 20 points, and strikeouts figure to be at a premium. Only one starter has a K Prediction above 6.69, so it could be a slate where paying down for your top pitcher makes sense.
Making matters worse, the two most expensive arms on the slate — Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez — are squaring off against each other. That lowers the win expectancy for both players.
That said, Valdez still stands out as the clear top option. The Angels implied team total of 3.6 runs is the lowest mark on the slate, and they strike out against right-handers at a decent clip. Valdez isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher, but he’s been better in that regard this season. His average fastball velocity is up nearly two miles per hour, and his 9.63 K/9 is nearly a full strikeout higher than his mark from last year. Valdez has also been really effective to start the year, posting a 2.38 ERA through his first 11 outings.
Valdez’s strikeout upside is also reflected in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
That said, Valdez isn’t exactly a slam dunk. Some of his Statcast data is very concerning, especially his fourth percentile average exit velocity. As a result, his xERA is significantly higher than his actual mark. The Angels have been an above-average offense against right-handed pitchers, and they have some batters who can do some serious damage.
Ultimately, Valdez grades out as the top high-end pitcher in THE BAT, but he also leads the slate in projected ownership. I don’t mind using him in cash games, but I think there are better options for tournaments.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Michael Wacha signed with the Padres after posting a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox last season, but most people thought he was due for regression. His xERA in 2022 was more than a full run higher than his actual mark, and his .260 BABIP was nearly 40 points lower than his career norm.
That said, Wacha has turned in a surprisingly similar start with his new squad. He’s pitched to a 3.45 ERA through 10 starts with the Padres, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight outings on DraftKings. Wacha is not a particularly strong strikeout pitcher, but he makes up for it with solid length. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his past five outings, and getting six innings from a starter is far from a given in 2023.
Wacha has plenty of appeal at his price tag for Friday’s matchup vs. the Cubs. His 3.9-run opponent implied total is the third-lowest mark on the slate, and he’s also a -160 favorite. Both of those marks are more than acceptable at his current price tag.
Wacha also has more strikeout upside than usual. The Cubs’ projected lineup has whiffed in 27.9% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the third-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Wacha is too cheap at $7,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s an excellent choice at SP2.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
I took a flyer on Zach Wheeler last week vs. the Braves, and he responded with eight scoreless innings and 12 strikeouts. Wheeler’s traditional ERA is still up compared to the past few seasons, but his 10.52 K/9 and 2.68 FIP are both excellent. He’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he’s more than capable of providing value vs. the Nationals at $9,200. Washington doesn’t strike out a ton vs. right-handers, but they rank just 25th in wRC+ in that split. Wheeler is still priced at a slight discount, and he should be able to keep the Nationals at bay.
Justin Verlander is priced at just $8,600 on DraftKings, and that would’ve seemed crazy at the start of the year. However, Verlander has been limited to just five starts due to injury, and he hasn’t exactly dominated when on the mound. However, his numbers are a bit misleading. He’s been rocked in two starts, but one was in Coors Field, and the other was against the best offense in baseball. In his other three outings, he’s allowed just four earned runs over 20 innings. Toronto is another tough matchup, but Verlander appears to still have some gas left in the tank.
Dean Kremer is an interesting low-ownership option to consider. He’s been effective recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight outings on DraftKings. He’s done that despite navigating a brutal schedule, with his past five starts coming against the Braves, Rays, Angels, Blue Jays, and Rangers. The Giants are another tough matchup, but they also provide some upside for opposing pitchers. They own the third-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season, so they have plenty of whiff potential. This matchup will also take place in San Francisco, giving Kremer a big park upgrade. His FIP dips from 5.26 at home to 3.79 on the road, so this is a great spot to give Kremer a look in GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies’ offense has been a major disappointment so far this season. They were expected to boast one of the top lineups in baseball, yet they rank just 24th in runs per game. Part of that is due to injury, but things haven’t gotten much better since Bryce Harper returned to the lineup. They just scored three total runs in a three-game series vs. the Mets, and most of their batters sit well below their career norms.
Still, there’s no denying the amount of talent in this lineup. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are two of the best power bats in baseball. Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto have been among the best hitters at their positions over the past half-decade. Despite their struggles, it seems like it’s only a matter of time until this unit gets rolling.
Perhaps that will start Friday vs. the Nationals. They’re taking on Josiah Gray, who has shown significant improvement in his second full season with Washington. He’s pitched to a 2.77 ERA through his first 11 outings, and Gray was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. There’s a reason that he was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers in 2021.
However, Gray’s advanced metrics paint a different picture. His 4.18 xERA and 4.97 xFIP are just as poor as they’ve been the past two years, and his K/9 has dipped to just 7.44. This doesn’t seem like a case of a young pitcher coming into his own, but rather a pitcher getting a bit fortunate. Vegas isn’t giving Gray much respect in this matchup, with the Phillies leading the slate with a 5.3-run implied total.
Even if you’re not stacking the Phillies, Schwarber is someone that deserves your attention. He’s off to a terrible start, but when the weather heats up, so does Schwarber. He owns a career .602 slugging percentage in June, launching 47 homers in 133 career games. He went absolutely bananas in June of 2022, finishing with 12 homers and a 191 wRC+. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.1 in June for his career (per the Trends tool). I don’t normally put a ton of stock into monthly splits, but Schwarber’s career numbers are so impressive that they’re worth mentioning. He has the potential to break any slate, especially at just $4,900.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tucupita Marcano SS/2B ($2,100 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Jack Flaherty)
I am a sucker for a cheap leadoff hitter, and Marcano fits that description on Friday. He’s priced just $100 over the minimum on DraftKings, resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating. The Pirates’ offense is far from a juggernaut, but Marcano has been a bright spot this season. He owns a 119 wRC+ over 105 plate appearances, and he’s unsurprisingly been at his best against right-handers. Flaherty was once an excellent pitcher, but those days are long in the past. He’s pitched to a mediocre 4.81 ERA this season, and his advanced metrics are equally pedestrian. Marcano is a great way to save some salary on this slate.
Akil Baddoo OF ($2,500 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger)
Baddoo is another potential salary saver as the Tigers expected No. 2 hitter. He’s been one of the team’s better options against right-handers this season, which is why he’s moved up in the order recently. His price tag has yet to reflect his improved batting position, making him a strong option vs. Clevinger. Baddoo owns a 120 wRC+ against right-handers, while Clevinger has surrendered a .369 wOBA to left-handed batters. Stacking the Tigers’ entire lineup is also viable, and they’re all extremely affordable across the industry. Four of the top six spots in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus are Tigers’ batters using the blended projection set.
George Springer OF ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets (Justin Verlander)
Springer stands out as one of the top leverage options on Friday’s slate. He’s expected to garner virtually no ownership due to the matchup vs. Verlander, but Springer still has one of the top ceiling projections in our MLB Models. He’ll be at the top of the Blue Jays’ potent lineup, and he has seven homers and nine stolen bases on the year. That gives him a very fantasy-friendly skill set.
