The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Friday’s slate is packed with stud pitchers. Seven starters are priced at $9,100 or more on DraftKings, and four starters have a price tag of five figures.
Joe Ryan may not have the same reputation as some of the other top studs on the slate, but he has been outstanding this season. He has a 2.90 ERA across his first 13 starts, and his advanced metrics are even more impressive. His 2.45 xERA is the top mark among qualified starters by a significant amount, with Nate Eovaldi ranking second at 2.95. He’s also striking out 9.73 batters per nine innings, so he has some appeal from a strikeout perspective as well. Ryan hasn’t been at his best recently, but he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.36 on DraftKings for the year.
That said, what really sets Ryan apart from the rest of the field is his matchup. He’s taking on the Tigers, who have been one of the best matchups in fantasy over the past year and a half. They rank 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and they also boast the seventh-highest strikeout rate.
The Twins are listed as -260 favorites, making Ryan the largest favorite on the slate. His 7.19 K Prediction ranks second among Friday’s starters, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.60 (per the Trends tool).
Ultimately, Ryan leads all starters in median and ceiling projection per THE BAT, and he’s easily the best value in the stud tier as well.
MLB DFS Value Pick
THE BAT remains very bullish on Bryan Woo, who has made two starts for the Mariners. His traditional 10.80 ERA is a major red flag, but it’s clear he’s been ridiculously unlucky. He has an absurd .526 batting average on balls in play, which is nearly double what his mark was in Double-A this season. As a result, his 3.92 xERA and 2.83 FIP suggest he’s been much better than advertised.
Woo makes his living as a strikeout machine. He had a K/9 of at least 12.07 at each stop in the minor leagues, and he’s posted an elite 14.85 K/9 through his first two big league starts. That number is a little inflated by his absurd BABIP – everyone he doesn’t strike out seems to get a hit – but his 33.3% strikeout rate is still elite. He should continue to pile up the punchouts even if his batted-ball luck improves.
Woo is in a great spot to improve his ERA on Friday. He’s taking on the White Sox, who have been a disaster offensively this season. They’re just 29th in wRC+ against right-handers, and they’re 24th in runs per game.
As a result, Woo’s Vegas data is outstanding for his price tag. The White Sox are implied for just 3.6 runs, which trails only Ryan among Friday’s starters. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied run totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.64.
Woo’s combination of matchup, strikeout upside, and salary make him the ideal SP2 in all formats on DraftKings. He owns a projected Plus/Minus above +9.0 in THE BAT, which is easily the top mark on the slate.
Be sure to see who our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations like for tonight’s slate:
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Yu Darvish is way cheaper than usual at just $8,100 on DraftKings, and he’s always a threat for a big game. He’s been one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball for years, and while his K numbers are slightly down this year, his 9.65 K/9 is still an excellent figure. He displayed his upside with nine strikeouts over seven innings two starts ago, finishing with 35.95 DraftKings points. Darvish owns a brutal matchup Friday vs. the Rays, but Tampa hasn’t been as dominant against right-handers of late. They’re just 12th in wRC+ in that split over the past 14 days, and more importantly, they have the eighth-highest strikeout rate.
J.P. France has been a quality option for the Astros, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings. He’s pitched to a 3.54 ERA in the majors, and his 4.23 xERA suggests he’s been roughly as good as advertised. The strikeouts haven’t really come yet – he’s posted just a 7.75 K/9 – but he’s racked up at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings in each of his previous three years in the minors. The strikeouts could start coming eventually, and the Reds are a good matchup for it. Their projected lineup has posted a 29.2% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the second-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. France is also a -172 favorite for the Astros, so he’s a quality value target. He’s particularly useful on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Sandy Alcantara hasn’t lived up to his numbers from his Cy Young-winning campaign in 2022, but he’s in a fantastic spot on Friday. He’s taking on the Nationals, who rank 27th in wRC+ against right-handers for the year. They’re not a particularly good matchup for strikeouts, but Alcantara is the rare starter who doesn’t necessarily need a ton of strikeouts to dominate. He can pitch as deep into games as anyone, so a complete game is always on the table. Alcantara is also cheaper than usual at $8,800 on FanDuel, resulting in an 89% Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Braves are taking on the Rockies on Friday, and based on their implied run total, you’d think the game was at Coors. It’s actually being played in Atlanta, but the Braves still lead all teams with a gaudy 6.6-run implied team total.
The Braves’ offense is obviously extremely potent, loaded from top-to-bottom with guys who are capable of doing damage, and they draw an outstanding matchup vs. right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Lamet has pitched to a 10.38 ERA across 21 2/3 innings this season, and that figure jumps to 12.46 on the road. Lamet has definitely had some bad luck sprinkled in – you don’t pitch to a double-digit ERA without some bad breaks – but he’s simply not a good pitcher.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is the runaway favorite to take home the NL MVP award, and he’s a perfect player for fantasy purposes. He already has 15 homers and 29 steals this season, giving him arguably the highest ceiling of any batter any time he’s on the slate.
As good as Acuna is, Matt Olson might be the best option for the Braves on Friday. Lamet has been an absolute disaster against left-handed batters this season, surrendering a .491 wOBA and a .720 slugging percentage. Olson is one of the most intimidating left-handed batters in baseball, and he has plenty of homer upside in this matchup.
Outside of Acuna and Olson, the rest of the Braves’ lineup isn’t particularly potent against right-handers (using the PlateIQ tool):
That might make them a better one-off target than overall stack, but there’s no denying their upside vs. Lamet and a terrible Rockies’ bullpen.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jesus Sanchez OF ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams)
The Marlins are not known for their offense, but they’re implied for a solid 4.8 runs on Friday’s slate. Most of that has to do with their matchup against Williams. He’s pitched to a 5.21 xERA and a 5.32 FIP this season, and he’s allowed 1.78 homers per nine innings. Sanchez is expected to bat cleanup for the Marlins, and he has made the leap in his age-25 season. He’s posted a 134 wRC+, and his advanced metrics support his improvement at the dish. His .375 xwOBA is easily the top mark of his career, so he’s a solid value target at his current price tag across the industry.
Tucupita Marcano SS/2B ($2,500 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (Julio Teheran)
Marcano is someone that I’ve written about pretty consistently this season. He’s a dirt-cheap leadoff hitter, and he brings just enough offensive upside to the table. He’s been roughly league-average as a hitter this season, and he has just a smidge of power and speed potential. He draws a matchup vs. Teheran, who has a 1.48 ERA through his first 24.1 innings this season. However, before this season, he made just one start since 2020. His 4.48 xFIP suggests he has plenty of room for regression, and I expect it to start sooner rather than later.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF/SS ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Shane McClanahan)
Tatis is priced at a significant discount on FanDuel, but he is arguably a better GPP option on DraftKings. He’s projected for less than 4% ownership, and Tatis always has the upside to break a slate. His matchup vs. McClanahan is not particularly good, but Tatis has absolutely owned left-handers so far this season. He’s posted an absurd 211 wRC+ and a .426 ISO in that split, and he’s launched five homers in just 55 plate appearances. His upside is too high to ignore.
