The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
One of the most interesting pitching matchups on Friday’s slate features Corbin Burnes vs. Andrew Abbott. Abbott is the young upstart for the Reds, compiling a 1.21 ERA and a 2.68 xERA through his first six starts. Burnes is the grizzled veteran, finishing in the top seven of the NL Cy Young voting in each of the past three years.
Burnes hasn’t been able to reach those heights so far this season, with his numbers declining virtually across the board. His ERA is up to 4.00 in 2023, while his K/9 is down to 8.53. His 3.64 xERA is slightly better than his traditional ERA, but the rest of his ERA indicators are all above four. Ultimately, it’s hard to say he’s been unlucky this season; he’s just not been the same pitcher.
Still, Vegas is giving Burnes the benefit of the doubt. He’s listed as a slight favorite over Abbott and the Reds, and Cincinnati’s implied team total of 3.7 runs is the third-lowest mark on the slate.
Burnes’ matchup is a bit of a mixed bag. The Reds have been hot offensively of late, ranking fourth in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days. However, their projected lineup also has plenty of whiff potential. Their projected starters have posted a 27.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, the second-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Even though Burnes’ strikeout numbers are down this season, he still leads all players with a 7.65 K Prediction in our MLB Models.
Burnes also leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection in THE BAT, and he’s reasonably priced across the industry.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Aaron Civale has quietly had a nice season for the Guardians. He’s pitched to a 2.96 ERA over his eight starts, albeit with some uninspiring peripherals. Notably, his K/9 has dipped to just 6.90 in 2023 after spiking to 9.09 last season.
That lack of strikeout upside makes Civale tough to trust for DFS purposes, but a matchup vs. the Royals changes things. They’ve been one of the best possible matchups for pitchers this season, ranking dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handers. Not only are they dead last, but the gap between them and the 29th-ranked A’s is larger than the gap between the Tigers and the 22nd-ranked Guardians. They also rank 29th in the league in runs scored, and they’ve averaged just 1.33 runs over the past three contests.
Unsurprisingly, Vegas likes Civale to keep the Royals’ offense at bay on Friday. They’re currently implied for just 3.8 runs, and the Guardians are listed as -179 favorites. Those aren’t elite numbers, but they’re more than acceptable for a pitcher with a $7,700 price tag.
Civale ultimately ranks third in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BAT, trailing only Burnes and the min-priced Cody Bradford.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zac Gallen doesn’t grade out quite as well as Burnes in THE BAT, but you could make a strong case he’s the superior option. For starters, he’s just been better than Burnes this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 9.70 K/9. His matchup vs. the Pirates is also much better, with Pittsburgh ranking 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. The Pirates’ implied team total of 3.6 runs is tied for the lowest mark on the slate, and Gallen is the second-largest favorite at -200. Finally, Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has been just as strikeout prone as the Reds’, posting a 27.5% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Gallen is projected for slightly more ownership than Burnes at a slightly higher price tag, but he feels like a safer option for cash games.
Ross Stripling was absolutely torched in his first six starts for the Giants, which caused him to lose his spot in the rotation. However, Stripling will make his first start in two months Friday vs. the Rockies. He likely won’t have a particularly long leash, but Stripling has historically been an effective pitcher. He posted a 3.01 ERA and a 3.57 xERA with the Blue Jays in 2022, and he draws an excellent matchup in his return to the bump. The Rockies rank 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and their offense is notorious for struggling away from Coors Field. They’re implied for just 3.8 runs on Friday, making Stripling a very intriguing value play at just $5,300.
On FanDuel, Hunter Brown enters the conversation for top starter on the slate. He’s priced at just $9,000, and his 87% Bargain Rating is easily the best mark among the top options. He does have a tough matchup vs. Luis Castillo, lowering his moneyline odds, but the Mariners are implied for just 3.8 runs. Brown also might be the best pure strikeout pitcher on the slate. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings this season, and Seattle is an elite matchup for strikeout purposes. They have the second-highest strikeout rate in that split this season, so Brown might have the highest ceiling among Friday’s starters.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox lead Friday’s slate with a 6.0-run implied team total, making their top stack a massive value at just $21,900. None of their top five hitters costs more than $4,900, with leadoff hitter Jarren Duran checking in at a paltry $3,500. That’s going to make the Red Sox easily the highest-owned stack on this slate, but it’s hard to argue against it.
They’re taking on A’s right-hander Luis Medina, and like most of the A’s starters, he’s been terrible this season. He’s pitched to a 6.37 ERA and a 5.55 xERA across 53.2 innings. He’s also struggled with walks (5.20 BB/9) and homers (1.84 HR/9), and he’s been even worse when pitching on the road. His ERA jumps to 7.43 outside of Oakland, and Fenway Park is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in all of baseball. The Red Sox rank fourth in the league in runs per game at home, and they should be able to build on that figure on Friday.
After Medina departs, the A’s will turn things over to a historically bad bullpen. The A’s bullpen has a 5.69 ERA for the year, which is the worst mark in the league by more than half a run. Overall, the A’s team ERA of 6.00 is threatening the record for the worst mark in the modern era, with the 1996 Tigers checking in at 6.38.
The Red Sox also enter this contest in elite recent form. Three of their top four hitters have posted a wOBA of at least .403 against right-handers over the past 30 days (via Plate IQ):
If you really want to load up on the righty-killers, you could choose to pivot from Adam Duvall to Alex Verdugo. It does slightly decrease the correlation, but it should help a bit in terms of ownership.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aledmys Diaz 3B/SS/2B ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,100 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (Brennan Bernardino)
The Red Sox will draw most of the attention in this matchup, but the A’s have a few things working for them as well. They get a significant park upgrade in Fenway, and the Red Sox will employ a bullpen game. Brandon Walter is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings, and he’s been pretty uninspiring in his limited action. He has a 5.14 FIP and a 3.12 K/9 through his first 8.2 innings, and it’s a problem anytime your FIP is higher than your K/9. Diaz provides plenty of lineup flexibility at a cheap price tag, and he’s expected to bat second in the A’s lineup.
Nathaniel Lowe 1B ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams)
The Rangers have boasted one of the top offenses in baseball this season, and Lowe is a big part of their success. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year for the Rangers, but his 120 wRC+ is still well above average. Lowe has also been improved against right-handers compared to 2022, which bodes well for his matchup vs. Williams. Williams’ 4.34 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his 5.58 FIP is significantly worse. The Rangers’ implied team total of 5.7 runs ranks second on the slate, giving Lowe plenty of appeal in stacks or as a standalone option.
Kyle Farmer 2B/3B/SS ($2,300 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin)
The Twins are facing a left-hander on Friday, which means Farmer is worth considering as a value play. He’s expected to bat cleanup, and Farmer has posted a 118 wRC+ against southpaws for his career. Irvin is also a very hittable left-handed pitcher, struggling to a 6.32 ERA and a brutal 8.56 xERA this season. Unsurprisingly, his biggest struggles have come against right-handed batters, and the Twins are implied for a healthy 5.1 runs.
