The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
It hasn’t been the best year for Aaron Nola. His numbers are down virtually across the board, and his 4.43 ERA is the second-worst mark of his career. That said, most of Nola’s ERA indicators paint a much rosier picture. He owns a 3.77 xERA and 3.82 xFIP, both of which are much closer to his career norms.
Nola was rocked in his last outing, surrendering five runs to the Pirates in less than five innings, but he’s in a great bounce-back spot on Friday. He’s taking on the Royals, who have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. They’re dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they’re ninth in strikeout rate.
Unsurprisingly, Nola leads our MLB Models in a variety of pitching metrics. He ranks first in both opponent implied total (3.6 runs) and moneyline odds (-260), which has historically led to success. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.84 (per the Trends tool).
Additionally, Nola’s 7.1 K Prediction is also the top mark on the slate. That gives him arguably the safest floor and highest ceiling among today’s starters. He leads THE BAT in projected ceiling and projected Plus/Minus, making him an elite option in all contest types.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Adam Wainwright has had a phenomenal career, but at 41 years old, he’s not nearly the same pitcher that he was in his prime. He’s regressed massively in 2023, struggling to a 7.18 ERA and a 7.59 xERA. He’s averaged less than five strikeouts per nine innings while walking nearly 3.5. His Statcast data is actually pretty solid – he ranks in the 65th percentile in average exit velocity and 70th percentile in hard-hit rate – but it’s hard to survive when you allow so many balls in play.
So why consider Wainwright on Friday? It’s all about his matchup. He’s taking on the Rockies, which is about as good as it gets for right-handed pitchers. They rank 26th in wRC+ when facing a right-hander on the road, and they also boast the fifth-highest strikeout rate in that split. Colorado is also likely to get worse in those metrics after trading away two of their best hitters in C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk before the deadline.
Wainwright checks in as a -185 favorite at just $6,000, which is a nice combination. It’s rare to get such a large favorite at this cheap a price tag, and pitchers with comparable marks have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.63. He trails only Nola in terms of projected Plus/Minus, making him a solid choice at SP2 in cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
The White Sox are another offense that figures to get worse after the trade deadline, particularly against southpaws. They traded away Jake Burger, who posted a 152 wRC+ in that split this season. The White Sox weren’t great against southpaws to begin with, ranking 19th in wRC+, so they’re definitely a team to target. Logan Allen gets that matchup on Friday, and he owns a strong 3.70 ERA in his rookie season. His 3.8-run opponent implied team ranks second on the slate, while his -169 moneyline odds rank fourth. His 5.59 K Prediction is middle of the pack, but he still ranks fifth in ceiling projection despite ranking 11th in salary.
Hunter Brown has come crashing back to earth after coming out of the gates red-hot. His ERA dipped to just 5.92 in July, which was easily his worst mark of the year. Still, his 10.19 K/9 and 3.97 xERA suggest he’s a capable starting pitcher. He draws a matchup vs. the slumping Yankees on Friday. The Yankees have managed 11 runs over their past two contests, but they still rank 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days. Their projected lineup also owns the sixth-highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate over the past 12 months, while Brown’s price tag has come down -$800 over the past month on DraftKings. He’s a solid buy-low target.
Brown’s strikeout prop also grades out favorably in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Reid Detmers doesn’t have nearly the same Vegas data as Nola on Friday, but he’s pretty comparable from a strikeout perspective. Detmers has quietly been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball this season, racking up 11.28 strikeouts per nine innings. His strikeout rate puts him in the 85th percentile for all pitchers, so it’s not surprising that his advanced metrics are much better than his traditional 4.35 ERA. He’s in a great spot to pile up strikeouts vs. the Mariners, who own the second-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies earn the top stack spot on Friday’s slate in their matchup vs. the Royals. They’re currently implied for 5.6 runs, the fourth-highest mark on the slate, and they get an exploitable matchup vs. Jordan Lyles. Lyles has been an innings-eater for the Royals this season, sending him out there every fifth day despite winning just two of his 20 starts. He’s struggled to a 6.15 ERA while allowing 1.76 homers per nine innings. He’s been even worse when pitching away from home, and he’ll bring his 7.52 road ERA into Philadelphia on Friday.
The Phillies’ offense came into the year with big expectations, and they have tons of star power up and down their lineup. They started the year slowly, but they have started to turn things around. They’ve averaged 4.85 runs per game since the start of June, and while that’s still not quite what they were hoping for, it would be the 10th-highest full-season mark in 2023.
The depth of the Phillies lineup is reflected in their top stack. It spans all the way from leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber to projected No. 8 hitter Trea Turner, which is pretty unconventional. Most will likely shy away from Turner given his spot in the order, and the Phillies’ big free agent acquisition has struggled to adapt to his new home. He owns just a 76 wRC+, which is his worst full-season mark by a wide margin. However, Turner is still a major threat on the bases, recording 21 steals so far this season. If he can get on base a bit more, that number should only increase moving forward.
If you’re looking to make this stack a bit cheaper, you could always pivot away from Turner for someone like Brandon Marsh. He’s significantly less expensive at just $2,900, and he leads the team in wOBA against right-handers this season (via PlateIQ):
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Alfonso Rivas 1B ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,500 on FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
I’m a sucker for a cheap leadoff hitter, and you can’t get any cheaper than Rivas on DraftKings. He’s priced at the absolute minimum, and he owns the fourth-best projected Plus/Minus in our blended projections. Rivas is not considered a particularly exciting prospect, but he did post a 154 wRC+ in Triple-A this season. He also had nine homers and eight stolen bases, so he provides a smidge of upside in both departments. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits Friday vs. Rea, who has surrendered a .346 wOBA to left-handed batters this season. As the projected leadoff hitter for a road squad, Rivas has a solid chance at five plate appearances on Friday, making him an excellent salary saver for cash squads.
Rafael Devers 3B ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Alek Manoah)
Manoah was once a pitcher that you needed to fear, but he’s become a pitcher that we can target relentlessly in DFS. He’s pitched to a 5.87 ERA this season, and his xERA and FIP are both over six. He hasn’t shown any real signs of improvement over the second half, pitching to a 5.68 ERA after the All-Star break, and the Red Sox are implied for a slate-best 6.0 runs on Friday. That makes Devers a clear target at his current price tags. He’s very affordable across the industry, and he remains an extremely dangerous hitter. He hasn’t been quite as potent in 2023 as he has in years past, but he’s increased his wRC+ to 163 since the All-Star break. Devers should carry significant ownership on this slate, but it’s hard not to love his prospects vs. Manoah.
Alejandro Kirk C ($3,100 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (James Paxton)
The Red Sox aren’t the only team in play at Fenway. The Blue Jays’ hitters get a nice park upgrade, particularly the righties. The Green Monster has always led to plenty of success for right-handed batters, giving them a slate-best 81 Park Factor on Friday’s slate. The Jays have two right-handed catchers in Kirk and Danny Jansen, but I give Kirk a slight edge. Not only is he expected to hit higher in the order, but he’s also been significantly better against southpaws over the past 30 days. He leads the team with a .400 wOBA and a .292 ISO in that split, while Jansen has been slightly worse over a smaller sample size. Catcher is typically a tough position to fill, but Kirk provides some upside without breaking the bank.
