The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider will take the bump for the Braves on Friday, which means he immediately jumps to the top of the pitcher rankings. Strider is coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, allowing just one hit and one walk with 10 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings. He did that against the Giants, and he’ll face the same squad again tonight.
Strider’s last outing is far from an outlier. He’s been making batters look foolish all season, racking up 13.96 strikeouts per nine innings. His 3.57 ERA isn’t elite, but his advanced metrics are at least a half-run better. Overall, his 2.87 FIP ranks third among qualified pitchers, trailing only Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman.
Strider will take the mound away from home on Friday, which is normally considered a negative. However, getting to pitch in San Francisco might actually be an upgrade. It’s one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league, and Strider leads all starters in Park Factor on this slate. His 3.5-run opponent implied team total is also tied for first, while he’s a -160 favorite.
Of course, strikeouts are where Strider really makes his mark, and he unsurprisingly dominates in that area on Friday. His 8.61 K Prediction is the top mark on the slate by more than a full strikeout, and Dylan Cease is the only pitcher even in the same ballpark.
The only real concern with Strider is his price tag. He’s priced at $12,800 on DraftKings, making him the most expensive pitcher by $2,400. He certainly has the ceiling to pay off that salary, but he might be a smidge overpriced for his most likely outcome. He owns a negative projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT, so there are stronger options for cash games.
MLB DFS Value Pick
It’s rare to get a pitcher with elite Vegas data at just $5,000, but that’s the case with Cole Irvin on Friday. He’s taking on the Rockies, who have been an absolute disaster against left-handed pitchers this season. They rank dead last in wRC+, and their mark of 66 puts them far behind the rest of the league. The Rockies’ offensive numbers are boosted in their home starts, but they’ll get no help Friday in Baltimore.
Irvin has also shown some solid progression over the second half of the season. He’s pitched to a 3.10 ERA since the All-Star break while increasing his K/9 to 9.30. Part of that improvement can be attributed to a stint in the bullpen, but he’s looked good in back-to-back starts vs. the A’s and Mariners. He’s racked up nine strikeouts across 10 total innings while allowing just six hits and one run.
Add in the Orioles’ outstanding offense, and it’s not surprising that Irvin is getting plenty of love from Vegas. His -210 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite of the day, while his 3.8-run opponent implied team total is the fifth-lowest mark on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.53 (per the Trends tool). There are only 47 previous instances of pitchers matching that trend in our database, which goes to show just how big of an outlier Irvin is on Friday.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
As good as Irvin looks from a Vegas perspective, Brandon Pfaadt might be the superior value. He leads all starters in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BAT, and his $5,600 salary results in a 97% Bargain Rating. Pfaadt is taking on the Reds, who have been mired in a deep slump of late. They rank just 24th in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, and more importantly, their strikeout rate has been above 30%. That’s an insane mark. To put that in perspective, the Twins are the only team with a strikeout rate above 25.7% for the year, and their 27.7% mark is still well below the Reds’ recent sample. Pfaadt is a former top prospect who has pitched to a 3.50 ERA and 8.50 K/9 over the second half of the season, so he has plenty of upside in this matchup.
Cease makes a ton of sense as a pivot off Strider on Friday. He’s projected for roughly 10% less ownership, and he saves a whopping $3,900 towards the salary cap. However, his metrics grade out just slightly worse than Strider’s. He has a far superior matchup vs. the A’s, resulting in a 3.7-run opponent implied total, -195 moneyline odds, and a 7.42 K Prediction. Cease has not been in Strider’s stratosphere for most of the season, but he could rival him on this specific slate.
Bryce Miller warrants some consideration on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 77%. Miller stumbled a bit in the middle of his rookie season, but he appears to be finishing strong. He’s pitched to a 3.18 ERA in August, and he should be able to mow through the light-hitting Royals. They rank 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, and they’re 27th in runs per game. Miller’s 3.5-run opponent implied team total is tied with Strider for the top mark on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
Just like last season, the Phillies have heated up along with the weather. They’ve gone 44-28 since the start of June, propelling them to the top spot in the NL Wild Card standings. They made an improbable run to the World Series in 2022, and they’ll be looking for a repeat performance in 2023.
Their offense is up to 11th in runs per game for the season, and they’ve averaged 6.67 runs over their past three contests. They’ve also been better at home than on the road, jumping to eighth in runs per game at their home ballpark.
They’ll be in Philadelphia for Friday’s matchup vs. the Cardinals and right-hander Miles Mikolas. Mikolas isn’t a gas can, but he’s not a good pitcher either. He owns a 4.55 ERA and a 4.99 xERA for the year, and he’s averaged just 6.32 strikeouts per nine innings. He was shelled by the Mets in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs and two homers across just 4.2 innings.
That could spell trouble against the Phillies, with most of their projected starters showing increased numbers against right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the most dangerous options here, and they’ll both be on the positive side of their splits. However, Trea Turner has also been hot recently, and the team has a few intriguing value options at the bottom of their lineup.
The Phillies’ implied team total of 5.3 runs is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, trailing only the White Sox. However, the White Sox are significantly cheaper, so they should garner most of the ownership. That makes Philly a really strong pivot.
More MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tim Anderson SS ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (Zach Neal)
Speaking of the White Sox, it’s been a lost season for Anderson. His numbers have plummeted across the board, and his most memorable highlight was getting knocked out by Jose Ramirez. However, Anderson has a long track record of success, so he’s hard to ignore as the projected leadoff hitter for a team with a 5.5-run implied team total. He’s also shown some signs of breaking out of his season-long slump, posting a 104 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Tyler O’Neill OF ($3,500 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez)
O’Neill is another solid value option to consider on Friday. He’s facing a left-hander in Sanchez, who has pitched well at the MLB level this season. That said, Sanchez was not a particularly exciting prospect, and he’s been much more vulnerable against right-handed batters than lefties. O’Neill has historically been at his best against southpaws, and he’s been scorching hot in that split of late. He owns a .557 wOBA and .524 ISO against left-handers over the past 30 days, and he’s expected to hit second in the Cardinals’ lineup.
Rowdy Tellez 1B ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish)
Most DFS players aren’t going to be rushing to roster guys against Darvish, but he’s quietly had a subpar season. He owns a 4.35 ERA, while lefties have posted a solid .342 wOBA against him. That makes Tellez an interesting punt play for tournaments. Tellez hasn’t been able to duplicate his results from last year, when he hit a career-high 35 homers. However, he still has a .236 ISO against right-handers for his career. He’s a cheap way to get some home-run power at what should be low ownership.
