The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider will be on the mound for the Braves on Friday, which vaults him to the top of the pitcher rankings. He’s been the best pitcher in fantasy this season, combining elite strikeout metrics with plenty of win upside. He’s 13-4 playing for the juggernaut Braves while striking out more than 14 batters per nine innings.
Strider’s 3.75 ERA isn’t exactly elite, but his 3.08 xERA and 2.95 FIP suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. Regardless, his average of 24.9 DraftKings points per start over the past year is easily the top mark on the slate.
The Giants stand out as an excellent matchup for Strider. Their offense isn’t terrible, and they’re implied for 3.7 runs in this matchup. That’s not a horrible mark, but it’s still the second lowest of the day.
The bigger appeal is their strikeout rate. They’ve whiffed in 24.6% of their at-bats against right-handers this season, good for the fifth-highest mark in the league. Strider always has the upside for double-digit whiffs, but this is a particularly good spot for strikeouts.
Strider leads THE BAT in median and ceiling projection by roughly five points, and paying up for him is almost never a bad idea. He doesn’t stand out as the best pure “value” at $12,700, but no one can touch him from a raw points perspective.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Gibson will make the start for the Orioles, and he’s been an innings-eater for the squad this season. He’s not the best pitcher, posting a 4.89 ERA across 145.1 innings, but he’s been pretty dependable. His metrics took a nosedive after the Mariners roughed him up for nine runs in his last outing, but he allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his previous six starts.
Additionally, Gibson’s advanced metrics paint a slightly rosier picture. His 3.97 FIP is nearly a full run lower than his traditional ERA, and he has above-average barrel and walk rates.
Friday’s matchup vs. the A’s is a great spot for some positive regression. Oakland has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season, ranking dead last in runs per game. They’re 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, but they also own the third-highest strikeout rate.
Unsurprisingly, Vegas is showing Gibson and the Orioles plenty of love in this matchup. He’s a -185 favorite, while the A’s implied team total of 3.8 runs is tied for the third-lowest mark on the slate.
Gibson has also been priced down to $8,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a fantastic 96% Bargain Rating. Historically, pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.52 (per the Trends tool).
Gibson makes for an excellent SP2 for cash games on DraftKings, where he leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Andrew Heaney isn’t as safe as Gibson, but he arguably has more upside. He’s taking on the Brewers, who have been a fantastic matchup for left-handers this season. They rank 26th in wRC+ in that split, and they also have the third-highest strikeout rate. Heaney already has no problem striking guys out. His numbers are slightly down in his first year with the Rangers, but he still averages a healthy 9.37 strikeouts per nine innings. He owns the fourth-highest K Prediction in THE BAT, and the three pitchers ahead of him all cost at least $2,900 more on DraftKings. Heaney is also projected for roughly half the ownership of Gibson, making him an outstanding pivot for tournaments.
If you’re not going to pay up for Strider, Pablo Lopez is a reasonable alternative. Lopez has had a solid first season for the Twins, and he ranks second to Strider in median and ceiling projection. That said, his Vegas data is actually slightly stronger. The Twins are -227 favorites vs. the Pirates, who are implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. Lopez doesn’t have the same strikeout upside as Strider, but his 7.19 K Prediction is still very respectable. He’ll save you -$2,100 from Strider as well, which can give you a meaningful upgrade to the rest of your lineup.
It’s time to get familiar with Gavin Williams. The 24-year-old entered 2023 as a top pitching prospect, and he’s shined in 10 starts with the Guardians. He’s racked up a 2.80 ERA and 3.89 xERA, and he’s recorded nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Those numbers are impressive, but Williams has really taken off in his past two starts. He’s held two quality offenses in the Rays and Blue Jays to just one run over 12 innings, and he’s added 22 strikeouts. He’s had at least 10 whiffs in back-to-back starts, even though both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers. If he can do that in a subpar matchup, it goes without saying that he has upside vs. the lowly Tigers.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
We’ve barely talked about the White Sox this season unless we’re talking about which offenses have been the biggest disappointment. They’ve plummeted to 25th in runs per game this season, which resulted in the team trading away virtually their entire pitching staff at the deadline. If not for teams like the Mets and Cardinals getting more attention, the White Sox would be catching much more flack for their subpar record.
That said, Coors Field is the great equalizer. The White Sox will travel to Coors to start a series vs. the Rockies, which makes them one of the most appealing offenses in Friday’s slate. Their 6.2-run implied team total is the top mark on the slate, and unlike most teams that head to Coors, they’re still extremely affordable. Their top stack per THE BAT will run you just $21,400, which is nothing compared to the top offenses in baseball.
The White Sox will square off with Peter Lambert, who has pitched to a 5.46 ERA this season. That figure balloons to 8.14 at Coors Field, where opposing batters have averaged 2.59 homers per nine innings.
Choosing which five White Sox to stack is a pretty easy decision. Their top five hitters in terms of projected points also stand out as their top five in projected Plus/Minus. The only real wrinkle is that Andrew Vaughn is the team’s No. 6 hitter, so you’ll have to omit the No. 5 hitter in Yoan Moncada to make it work.
More MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Charlie Blackmon OF ($4,100 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox (Michael Kopech)
The Rockies’ implied team total is just slightly lower than the White Sox’s, so they’re an outstanding target as well. Blackmon stands out as their top option as the projected leadoff hitter. Blackmon isn’t the same slugger that he was in his prime, but he still boasts an excellent .406 wOBA when facing a right-hander in Coors. Kopech also stands out as an exploitable right-hander. He’s struggled to a 5.64 xERA and 6.26 FIP this season, and pitching in Colorado isn’t going to help him get back on track.
Jorge Soler OF ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin)
Soler stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $3,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He leads all players in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus per THE BAT, and he also grades out well from a leverage perspective. Some DFS players may be scared to target him against Tony Gonsolin, who pitched to a sparkling 2.14 ERA in 2022. However, Gonsolin has come crashing back to reality in 2023, posting a 4.24 ERA and a 5.29 xERA. Soler also enters this contest in good recent form, posting a 59.1% hard-hit rate against right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
The Marlins actually have five players with a hard-hit rate above 50% against right-handers over that time frame, so they could be a sneaky team to stack.
Royce Lewis 3B/SS ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Andre Jackson)
Lewis can flat-out hit. The former top prospect posted a 146 wRC+ over a small sample size in 2022, and he’s followed that up with a 144 wRC+ this season. Unfortunately, he missed a solid chunk of time with an oblique injury. However, Lewis is officially back in action, and he’s hit the ground running. He had 9.0 DraftKings points in his first game back in the Twins’ lineup, and he followed that up with 20.0 DraftKings points on Wednesday. Lewis is simply a far better hitter than his current price tag suggests, especially with the Twins implied for 5.2 runs on Friday.
