The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Justin Verlander is officially back in Houston. He was arguably the top player moved at the trade deadline, bolstering the Astros’ rotation before what they hope is another deep playoff run. He looked sharp in his first outing back with his old team, limiting the Yankees to two runs across seven innings.
That said, it’s fair to wonder how much Verlander has left in the tank. He’s shown some signs of decline in his age-40 season, with his 3.11 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and 3.87 FIP all checking in significantly worse than last season. He’s also averaging roughly two fewer strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.5 additional walks per nine. Those numbers are still pretty good, but he’s probably not an ace pitcher at this point in his career.
Fortunately, that shouldn’t really matter on Friday. He’s taking on the Angels, who have won just two of nine games in August. Their lineup has been decimated by injuries, and they’ve dipped to 21st in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 14 days. They also boast the third-highest strikeout rate over that time frame, so it’s a great matchup. Verlander will have to be careful with Shohei Ohtani, who is having arguably the greatest season in baseball history, but the rest of this lineup should be a cakewalk.
Vegas is showing Verlander plenty of respect in this spot. He’s the second-largest favorite of the day at -185, while his 3.8-run opponent implied team total is the third-lowest mark on the slate. He also ranks third in K Prediction while checking in at just $9,400. There are five pitchers with higher salaries on DraftKings, but Verlander grades out with better projections than all of them in THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Lance Lynn is another pitcher who changed teams at the deadline, moving from the lowly White Sox to the juggernaut Dodgers. Since landing in LA, Lynn has pitched to a perfect 2-0 record across two starts with a 2.77 ERA, 9.0 K/9, and 0.923 WHIP.
Can he keep it up? That remains to be seen. His 5.95 FIP in those outings is obviously a major red flag, and Lynn struggled for most of the year in Chicago. He pitched to a 6.47 ERA across 21 starts with the White Sox, despite striking out a career-best 10.8 batters per nine innings.
Some regression is likely coming for Lynn, but Friday’s matchup vs. the Rockies doesn’t seem like the spot. The Rockies are about as good of a matchup as possible, especially outside of Coors Field. They’re tied for last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they also have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in that split.
Lynn’s Vegas data in this matchup is absolutely elite. He leads all starters with a 3.2-run opponent implied total, and he’s a massive -300 moneyline favorite. Finding a pitcher with those kinds of marks is rare, especially when they cost less than $9,000. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.29 (per the Trends tool).
Unsurprisingly, Lynn absolutely dominates the projections in THE BAT. His projected DraftKings Plus/Minus is over +10.0, putting him more than five points ahead of Verlander in second. He leads all starters in median and ceiling projection, despite owning just the eighth-highest salary. He’s going to carry massive ownership, but he might be unfadable, all things considered.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
If you’re looking to pivot off the Verlander-Lynn combination, Blake Snell is an interesting candidate. Snell is in the thick of the NL Cy Young race, pitching to a 2.61 ERA and 11.90 K/9 in 2023. Those are elite figures, and he gets an interesting matchup Friday vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona has cooled off after their excellent start to the year, and they’ve struggled against southpaws all season. They’re just 23rd in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers, so the matchup is a bit better than it might seem on paper. Snell has racked up a double-digit K/9 in 13 of his past 15 starts, so his ceiling is as high as anyone’s.
Ross Stripling has not had the best season, posting a 5.21 ERA in his first year with the Giants. He had a 3.01 ERA and 3.57 xERA with the Blue Jays last season, so his decline has been significant. However, Stripling may have started to turn the corner. He’s allowed one earned run in back-to-back outings, and he racked up seven strikeouts across 5.1 innings in his last appearance. Stripling is not the type of pitcher who typically goes more than five innings, so the fact that he’s expected to come out of the bullpen on Friday actually increases his win expectancy. He’s also taking the mound in one of the friendliest pitching environments in baseball, so he has plenty going for him at just $5,600. His matchup vs. the Rangers isn’t great, but he ranks third in THE BAT in projected Plus/Minus.
Joan Adon is another potential value target. He was excellent in his first start of the season, racking up seven strikeouts across six innings vs. the Reds. He did allow three runs, but his 3.10 FIP and 1.75 xFIP in that outing were both fantastic. Pitching in the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is extremely difficult, so things should be significantly easier for him at home vs. the A’s. Oakland has been an elite matchup for right-handers this season, ranking third in strikeout rate and 25th in wRC+. Adon likely won’t pitch very deep into this contest – he threw 86 pitches in his first start – but he should pitch well when he’s on the mound.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves could fly a little bit under the radar on Friday. Their 5.5-run implied team total is excellent, but it’s just the fourth-highest mark on the slate. The three teams that check-in ahead of them – the Royals, Cardinals, and Dodgers – are cheaper to stack, which should keep the Braves’ combined ownership down. For example, you can roster the top five Royals’ hitters for just $20,500, so you’re getting a superior implied team total for nearly $10,000 less. That extra money will allow you to spend up for better pitchers, so I imagine most DFS players will likely go that route.
That said, the Braves still possess the best lineup in the league. Their top five hitters have absolutely feasted against right-handed pitchers this season (via PlateIQ):
The Braves should be able to tee off against Tylor Megill, who is having a nightmare of a season. Megill was a serviceable starter for the Mets in 2022, posting a 4.31 xERA and 3.77 FIP, but those figures have dipped to 6.37 and 5.24 this year. Megill has struggled with command, issuing 4.62 walks per nine innings, and batters have obliterated him when he enters the strike zone. He ranks in the fifth percentile in expected batting average and the seventh percentile in expected slugging.
The Braves have the added benefit of being on the road on Friday, meaning they’re guaranteed nine innings at the dish. When Megill does depart, they get to tee off on a bullpen that owns the 10th-worst ERA in baseball and should only get worse after trading away closer David Robertson.
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More MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jordan Luplow OF ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez)
Luplow has bounced around the league over the past few seasons, but he was recently claimed by the Twins. He’s known for one thing: his ability to tee off against left-handed pitchers. He owns a 124 wRC+ against southpaws for his career, and 31 of his 45 career homers have come in that split. Sanchez has had a solid year for the Phils, but he’s significantly weaker against right-handed hitters. He owns a 4.84 FIP in that split, and he surrenders an average of 1.91 homers per nine innings. Luplow is expected to bat cleanup for the Twins on Friday, making him an elite source of savings.
Michael Massey 2B ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
Massey is another cheap option with a premium lineup spot. He’s expected to hit third for the Royals in what should be one of the best fantasy games of the day. The total between the Royals and Cardinals is up to 11.0, and both teams are expected to contribute offensively. Massey has struggled for most of the season but has posted a 136 wRC+ in August. He’s also clubbed six homers in 24 games since the All-Star break, which is two more than he hit across 65 games in the first half. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Wainwright, who has struggled to an abominable 7.81 ERA and 7.64 xERA in 14 starts.
Trea Turner SS ($5,200 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins (Dallas Keuchel)
Turner has been underpriced for most of the season on FanDuel, and Friday’s slate is no exception. He owns a 98% Bargain Rating, and he’s expected to bat third for a Phillies’ squad implied for 5.4 runs. Ever since receiving a standing ovation from the Phillies’ fans, Turner has hit safely in seven straight games, posting a 1.134 OPS in the process. He should be able to keep the good times rolling vs. Keuchel, who will be making just his second start of the year. He allowed just one run over five innings in his first start, but he had a 9.20 ERA in 14 starts last season.
