The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom will take the mound for the Rangers on Friday, which means he stands atop the pitcher rankings. deGrom’s ERA currently sits at 3.04, which isn’t exactly dominant, but all of his advanced metrics are elite. He’s striking out 14.51 batters per nine innings, his third straight year with at least a 14.27 K/9. He also hands out virtually no free passes and limits the damage on balls in play. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, so even when batters do make contact, they typically don’t do much damage.
Add it all up, and deGrom is an improvement candidate moving forward. His 1.44 FIP and 1.88 SIERA are both the best marks in the league among qualified starters. If not for the injury concerns, you could make a very good case that this guy is not human.
deGrom draws the Yankees on Friday, and while that seems like a tough matchup, they haven’t exactly torn the cover off the ball this season. They rank just 19th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and deGrom isn’t your typical right-hander. Vegas is showing deGrom massive respect in this matchup, with the Yankees implied for just 2.9 runs.
Unsurprisingly, deGrom also provides the top strikeout upside on the slate by a wide margin. His K Prediction sits at 9.25, and no one else on the slate is above 6.78. Strikeouts are the most important factor in fantasy success, and pitchers with a K Prediction above 9.0 have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.07 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). Add in comparable Vegas marks, and that figure increases to +5.08.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on deGrom’s strikeout upside:
deGrom will set you back quite a bit at $11,500, but it’s nearly impossible to pass him up in cash games.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Max Fried is priced at $7,700 on DraftKings, which is very affordable for a pitcher of his caliber. It results in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he has been outstanding to start the year. He owns an ERA of just 0.60 through his first 15 innings pitched after posting a 2.48 ERA in 30 starts last season.
Fried is in an interesting spot Friday vs. the Mets. The Mets are an above-average team, although they are a bit weaker against left-handers than right-handers. They dip to 14th in wRC+ in that split, and they’re implied for just 3.6 runs in this matchup. That’s the third-lowest mark on the slate, and Fried is also a -140 favorite.
The one area where Fried lags behind some of his counterparts is strikeouts. His strikeout numbers are down to start the year, posting a K/9 of just 6.60, and he’s never been a great strikeout pitcher to begin with. The Mets also have a bottom-10 strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, so Fried’s K Prediction sits at just 5.18. That’s just the 13th-best mark on the slate.
Fried should is currently projected for the fourth-highest ownership on DraftKings in THE BAT, which could make him a fade candidate in GPPs. Still, he’s a solid option to pair with deGrom in cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
David Peterson is an interesting pivot off Fried in cash games. He’s the underdog in that matchup, and he has pitched to a dreadful 7.36 ERA through his first five starts. That doesn’t make him the most exciting option vs. the Braves, but Peterson has been really unlucky to start the year. He can also pile up strikeouts, with his K/9 currently sitting at 10.52 in 2023. He was at 10.73 last season, so he’s capable of generating swings and misses. The Braves have the eighth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws to start the year, so Peterson has solid strikeout upside for his price tag.
If you’re looking for a punt SP2 on DraftKings, Kyle Muller makes a lot of sense. Nothing about Muller really stands out – he owns a 7.23 ERA and 6.46 K/9 this season – but he draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Reds. They own the third-lowest wRC+ vs. right-handers on the road this season, and they also boast the third-highest strikeout rate in that split. Muller is also dirt cheap at $5,200 on DraftKings, giving him the top projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT.
Could it be time to buy low on Aaron Nola? He’s down to $9,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he has historically been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He hasn’t looked the part to start the year – his lack of strikeouts is particularly concerning – and things aren’t going to get any easier for him vs. the Astros. Still, Nola has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.06 with a comparable salary, and he’s projected for less than 5% ownership. If he’s able to rediscover his old form on Friday, this price tag is simply too cheap.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
In addition to deGrom being on the slate, we also have the return of Coors Field. The Diamondbacks will travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies, and that game unsurprisingly features the top total of the day. It currently sits at 11.0 runs, while the Diamondbacks’ mark of 6.0 ranks first on the slate by a wide margin.
The Diamondbacks’ offense is expensive in this matchup, but it’s not Coors Field expensive. The above stack features just two players priced above $4,200, and no one is priced above $5,300. Coors batters can routinely hit the $6k+ threshold, so this is actually pretty reasonable, all things considered.
The Diamondbacks draw a matchup vs. Kyle Freeland, who is one of their better pitchers. That said, that’s not a very high bar to clear. Freeland has posted a 4.28 ERA and a 5.66 FIP this season, and those numbers are unsurprisingly worse in Coors Field.
Freeland has been pretty dominant against lefties to start the year, limiting them to a .170 wOBA, but his splits haven’t been near as pronounced throughout his career. Left-handed batters have managed a .321 wOBA vs. Freeland all-time, so there’s no need to avoid them on this slate.
That could make Corbin Carroll an interesting tournament target. Carroll entered the season as arguably the best prospect in baseball, and he’s posted an elite 151 wRC+ in his first full season. He already has four homers and 10 stolen bases, so he also possesses an extremely fantasy-friendly skill set. That includes a 170 wRC+ against southpaws, so he’s my favorite member of this stack. His ownership could be a bit lower than his righty counterparts, but the numbers suggest there’s no reason it should be.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Alex Call OF ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Rich Hill)
We’re going to need some cheap hitters if we’re looking to fit deGrom and a Coors Field stack in our lineups on Friday. Luckily, there are some strong options to choose from. Call stands out as an excellent bargain in the outfield as the Nationals’ projected leadoff hitter. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits against a left-handed pitcher, and Call has torn up those matchups to start the year. He owns a 161 wRC+ against southpaws, and he’s homered once in 23 at bats. Hill was once a very tough left-hander, but at 43 years old, he’s clearly not the same guy. He owns a 6.90 xERA and 6.20 FIP through his first five starts, and righties have managed a .402 wOBA against him.
Mike Brosseau 3B ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Anderson was phenomenal for the Dodgers last season, but he has been unable to recapture that magic for the other LA squad. He’s posted a 7.20 ERA and 7.00 FIP through his first four starts, and he’s tallied fewer than five strikeouts per nine innings. His biggest struggles have come against righties, who have posted a .458 wOBA with four homers against him. Brosseau is a cheap right-handed batter who is expected to lead off for the Brewers, and he owns a 124 wRC+ vs. southpaws for his career. Sign me up at his current price tag.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (Alek Manoah)
Paying up for any non-Coors hitter will be contrarian on this slate, but J-Rod stands out as arguably the best source of leverage. He’s projected for less than 4% ownership on DraftKings but owns the fourth-highest ceiling projection using our blended set. He possesses an elite combination of power and speed, and while he’s off to a slow start this season, he still has five homers and five stolen bases. Using Julio on Friday is sure to result in a pretty unique lineup.
