The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
It’s a good day for stud pitchers, with four starters currently projected for more than 20 DraftKings points in our MLB Models. However, Aaron Nola stands out as the top choice.
Nola hasn’t had the greatest start to his season. He was roughed up for five earned runs across 3.2 innings in his first start vs. the Rangers, and things haven’t gotten much better since. He’s allowed fewer than three earned runs in just one outing, and his ERA sits at just 5.91 for the year. His strikeout numbers are also down. He’s posted a K/9 of at least 10.19 in each of his past four seasons, but that figure sits at just 8.02 through his first four starts.
While the dip in strikeouts is concerning, it’s fair to say that Nola has been pretty unlucky. Batters have managed a .348 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is significantly higher than his career average of .295. Batters aren’t making harder contact against Nola than usual – his 92.2 mile per hour average exit velocity is lower than last season – so that seems due for some positive regression. His 3.62 xERA and FIP are both more than two full runs lower than his traditional ERA, so Nola is a strong progression candidate.
Perhaps a matchup vs. the Rockies will be just what the doctor ordered. The Rockies have historically struggled to score runs outside of Coors Field, and they’re off to another dreadful start in that department this season. They’re 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers when playing on the road, and they also boast the fourth-highest strikeout rate in that split.
Unsurprisingly, Nola’s Vegas data in this matchup is elite. He’s the biggest favorite on the slate at -325, while his 3.1 opponent implied run total is tied for first. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.78 (per the Trends tool).
Nola also owns the third-highest K Prediction among Friday’s starters, and he’s very affordable across the industry. His $9,300 salary on FanDuel represents a decrease of -$1,500 over the past month, and it comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
MLB DFS Value Pick
If you think the Rockies’ numbers against right-handers are bad, let me introduce you to the Detroit Tigers. They were quite possibly the worst team in baseball history against right-handers last season, posting a 74 wRC+ with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league. They’ve been slightly improved to start the new year, but they still rank just 27th in wRC+ in that split. Ultimately, any right-handed pitcher getting a start against the Tigers deserves some consideration in DFS.
Tyler Wells gets that honor on Friday, and he’s been pretty effective to start the year. He’s posted a 3.86 ERA, and his 4.29 xERA suggests he’s been roughly as advertised. He’s not a very good strikeout pitcher, racking up just over six Ks per nine innings, but he has a bit more upside than usual vs. the Tigers.
That said, he’s priced at a point where he doesn’t need a ton of strikeouts to return value. All he needs to do is keep the Tigers off the scoreboard and possibly pick up a win, and he’s in a good position to do both. He’s currently listed as a -180 favorite, and the Tigers are implied for 4.0 runs. At $6,200, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.02.
Overall, he’s an excellent SP2 for cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shohei Ohtani is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, checking in at +$1,400 more than Nola on DraftKings. That price difference gives Nola the edge from a value perspective, but Ohtani clearly has more upside. His Vegas data is in the same realm as Nola – 3.2 opponent implied run total, -300 moneyline odds – and he possesses far more strikeout upside. His 7.76 K Prediction is the top mark by a wide margin, with no other pitcher checking in above 6.3.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also very bullish on Ohtani’s strikeout upside:
Jon Gray is projected for slightly less ownership than Ohtani and Nola, but he has a comparable ceiling. He draws an elite matchup vs. the A’s, and he’s projected for slightly more strikeouts than Nola. The biggest difference is his Vegas data. His -210 moneyline odds and 3.4 opponent implied run total are still very good, but they’re not quite as elite as the other stud pitchers. Gray is a particularly nice value on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
If you’re looking for a low-ownership flyer at pitcher, Steven Matz is interesting. He’s been pretty dreadful to start the year, posting a 6.48 ERA across his three starts, but he’s averaged better than a strikeout per inning. He’s also clearly been unlucky in terms of BABIP, with his .396 mark sitting well above his career average. Matz faces a Mariners’ projected lineup with a 27.0% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and he should benefit from some of the best pitching weather on the slate. The current forecast in Seattle is expected to be just under 48 degrees at game time, resulting in a perfect 100 Weather Rating.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
While the Phillies’ massive moneyline odds stem mostly from having Nola on the bump, their offense also deserves some attention in this spot. They’re currently implied for 5.5 runs, which is the top mark on the slate.
The Phillies have stumbled to an 8-12 record to start the year, and their lineup is dealing with two massive absences in Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. They’ve been Jekyll and Hyde to start the year, routinely alternating between massive performances and getting completely shut down.
Friday’s matchup vs. Noah Davis seems like a good time for a strong performance. Davis was solid in his first career MLB start, pitching five scoreless innings vs. the Mariners. However, he’s not considered a promising prospect. He was ranked outside the top 30 in the Rockies system by FanGraphs and MLB.com, and he pitched to a 4.26 ERA and 6.78 FIP in three starts in Triple-A before being called up this season. The longer he sticks around the majors – and the more information that is available to batters – the more likely he is to get lit up.
Even without Harper and Hoskins, the Phillies still have plenty of batters who can do damage. Bryson Stott is probably their best value at $3,900. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup, and Stott had a 17-game hitting streak to start the year. He enters this contest with a 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and while he doesn’t have a ton of power, he can occasionally swipe a bag. Stott has three steals in three attempts this season, giving him a bit more upside than his power numbers might suggest.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Jesse Winker OF ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel), Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox (Nick Pivetta)
It wasn’t all that long ago that Winker was considered one of the best hitters in baseball against right-handed pitchers. He posted a 176 wRC+ in that split in 2021, launching 21 homers in 321 at bats. He had a down season in Seattle in 2022, and he’s struggled in a small sample size to begin the 2023 season. Still, he’s expected to occupy a premium spot in the lineup for a Brewers’ offense implied for 4.9 runs, and he draws an exploitable matchup vs. Pivetta. He’s pitched to a 6.08 xERA to start the year, and he’s surrendered a .370 wOBA to left-handed batters. If Winker still has any magic left in his bat from than 2021 season, this seems like the spot to use it.
Ezequiel Duran 3B/2B/OF/SS ($2,100 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics (J.P. Sears)
Duran’s eligibility is all over the place. He’s useable at shortstop and in the outfield on DraftKings, while he has second base and third base eligibility on FanDuel. Regardless of where you use him, he stands out as one of the best per-dollar options on this slate. He leads all hitters in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the aggregate projection set, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games. He’s expected to bat second for the Rangers against Sears, who are currently implied for 5.1 runs. That’s very appealing for a near min-priced hitter.
Gabriel Moreno C ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (Seth Lugo)
Punting the catcher spot is a very popular strategy in fantasy baseball, and Moreno stands out as one of the better punts on Friday. He was acquired by the Diamondbacks in the trade that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto, and he entered the MLB as a big-time prospect. He was considered the No. 3 overall prospect per FanGraphs in 2022, and he posted a 113 wRC+ as a 22-year-old last season. He hasn’t hit much to start the season, but his xwOBA is more than 50 points higher than his actual mark. His pedigree suggests he should hit at this level, so expect some progression moving forward.
