The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Kodai Senga has had an impressive start to his MLB tenure. He’s pitched to a 1.59 ERA through his first two outings while racking up 11.12 strikeouts per nine innings. In reality, he hasn’t been quite as dominant as those numbers suggest. His xERA and SIERA are closer to 4.00, while opposing batters have managed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of just .208. It’s likely that Senga is due for some regression moving forward.
That said, there’s no guarantee that happens Friday vs. the A’s. Oakland was one of the worst teams in baseball last season vs. right-handed pitchers, ranking 27th in wRC+ and sixth in strikeout rate. They’ve been roughly the same to start the new season, ranking 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handers through the first two weeks.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Senga leads the slate in a variety of pitching metrics. His opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs ranks first on the slate by half a run, and he’s also the largest favorite of the day at -225. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.82 (per the Trends tool).
Senga also grades out well from a strikeout perspective, with his 6.59 K Prediction ranking second on the slate. Add in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oakland, and there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the rookie pitcher on Friday. He’s a bit pricy, but he has plenty of upside in this matchup.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jake Woodford has not had the start to the year that he was hoping for. He’s pitched to a 9.00 ERA and a 10.13 xERA across his first two appearances, and he’s struggled with both walks and the long ball. He’s surrendered an average of four homers per nine innings, which is made worse by his average of four walks per nine innings. Add in a .346 BABIP, and you can see why things have gone poorly for him.
However, his first two outings have come against the Braves and Brewers, who are two of the best offenses in baseball. The Braves had a particularly strong showing against him, knocking Woodford around for six runs over 4.1 innings.
Life should be significantly easier for Woodford on Friday. He’s taking on the Pirates, who were just as inept against right-handers as the A’s last season. They finished 26th in wRC+ and had the third-highest strikeout rate, and they don’t figure to be much improved in 2023.
Woodford has solid Vegas data in this matchup for his price tag. His opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs is nothing to write home about, but he’s a solid -156 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.71.
Woodford doesn’t bring a ton of strikeout upside to the table, but he’s cheap enough that five solid innings should get the job done. He’s a solid punt SP2 on DraftKings, where he owns the second-highest projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also believes in Woodford’s ability to keep the Pirates’ offense in check:
MLB DFS GPP Picks
The top projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings belongs to Austin Gomber. Gomber isn’t getting nearly the same love from Vegas, with the Mariners implied for 5.0 runs on this slate. However, Gomber has outstanding Statcast data to start the year. He ranks in the 83rd percentile in average exit velocity and 88th percentile in hard hit rate, so his 3.52 xERA is more than three runs lower than his actual mark. Gomber will also get to pitch outside of Coors Field on Friday, which should help him significantly.
Luis Garcia is another pitcher who has struggled to start the year, posting a 7.00 ERA and 8.86 xERA through his first two starts. However, Garcia has a track record of success. He’s pitched to a 3.72 ERA or better in each of his first three seasons, so there’s no reason to expect him to continue to struggle. He should be able to take advantage of a mediocre Rangers lineup, particularly with Corey Seager on the IL.
Nestor Cortes brings the most strikeout upside on this slate. He leads all pitchers with a 6.68 K Prediction, and he’s averaged more than a strikeout per inning since taking over as a full-time starter in 2021. He hasn’t had the same strikeout success to start the year, but it hasn’t impacted his effectiveness. He’s pitched to a 2.61 ERA through his first two outings, and his 2.43 FIP is even more impressive.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels’ top stack features a ton of star power, headlined by two of the best players in baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. It’s going to cost quite a bit to roster their first five hitters, so this would be a strong unit to pair with a cheap SP2 like Woodford or Gomber.
That said, there’s no denying their upside. Their implied team total of 4.6 runs doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but they have a winnable matchup against right-hander Tanner Houck. He’s pitched to a 4.50 ERA and 5.09 FIP to start the year, and he’s been susceptible to the long ball. He allowed two homers in his first start of the year vs. the Orioles before bouncing back with a much stronger performance vs. the Tigers. The Tigers have been a historically bad offense against right-handers since the start of last year, so shutting them down isn’t all that impressive.
While Trout and Ohtani get most of the love in LA – rightfully so – don’t sleep on what Taylor Ward brings to the table. He broke out with a 137 wRC+ in 2022, and he’s been even better to start the new year. He’s posted a .390 xwOBA, and he grades out as an above-average hitter in virtually every Statcast metric.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($4,300 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
The Rays just keep on winning. They moved to 13-0 following a four-game sweep of the Red Sox, tying them for the best start in MLB history. Their offense has been a huge part of their success, with Lowe providing immense production at second base. He’s already clubbed five homers, and he owns a ridiculous 249 wRC+. For some reason, his price has remained very affordable across the industry, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits Friday vs. Berrios. Berrios gave up homers in bunches to left-handed batters last season, surrendering an average of more than two per nine innings. This is another great spot for Lowe to get on the board.
Josh Naylor 1B/OF ($4,100; $2,600 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams)
Naylor stands out as an excellent cash-game target on FanDuel, where he’s underpriced and has eligibility at first base and in the outfield. The Guardians lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.3 runs vs. Williams, and Naylor was one of their most dangerous hitters against right-handers last season. He posted a 139 wRC+, and 19 of his 20 homers came in that split. Williams isn’t a gas can, but he’s posted a 5.14 xERA through his first two starts this season.
Jesse Winker OF ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres (Michael Wacha)
Winker has missed four straight games with an illness, and there’s no guarantee he’s back in the lineup on Friday. However, he stands out as an elite GPP option if he is. He owns one of the top Leverage Ratings in our NBA Models, meaning that his projected ownership is far lower than it should be for his projected ceiling. Winker is coming off a down year in Seattle, but he blossomed into one of the best hitters in baseball against right-handers during the end of his tenure with the Reds. If he can recapture that form in San Diego, he has the potential to provide massive upside at his current salary.
