The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 9 NFL slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Minnesota Vikings -$7,300 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has the potential to reach a 75th-percentile outcome this week in a matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. Currently, at a 49.5-point total, this matchup looks to be a high-scoring affair highlighted by Jackson’s dual-threat ability in the pass and run game.
Per PFF, the Vikings defense might pose a problem for Jackson, grading out as the fifth-best defense. However, according to Football Outsiders, it looks like Minnesota has an issue with defending the run, ranked 20th in run DVOA, which should help Jackson move the offense down the field.
Matchup aside, per the Trends tool, when Jackson plays in a matchup with a 49.5-point total or higher, he averages 21.96 DraftKings points with a -1.45 Plus/Minus. Don’t let the negative rating discourage you. Jackson can quickly reach a ceiling outcome and has a variety of stacking options, including Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, and bring-back options in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook.
Top Value: Jordan Love vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $4,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Wednesday gave us a bombshell, with Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers testing positive for COVID-19, listed out for the matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
At $4,400 on DraftKings, backup quarterback Jordan Love takes over under center play calling, facing a weak Chiefs defense, ranked 31st in DVOA. Love should also have Davante Adams returning from the COVID-19 protocol this week.
With Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers opted for a pass-heavy 58%/42% pass-to-run play calling ratio (Per RotoViz) and should likely follow a similar game script with Love. At the deep discount, it may not take a lot for Love to be fantasy relevant and can easily fit with high-priced options on the Chiefs side, namely Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Top Rostered: Josh Allen vs. Jacksonville Jaguars- $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Lamar Jackson projects to be one of the more popular choices for rosters this week, seeing 18.4% projected ownership at the time of writing. However, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen should also appear frequently in rosters in a prime matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
One of the more dominant quarterbacks in the league, Allen is fifth among starters in touchdown passes (17), averaging 281.7 yards per game. In addition to his big-play ability through the air, Allen is third in the share of carries and is seen as a dual-threat option with tremendous upside.
Jacksonville ranks last in defensive DVOA, leading the Bills to likely score at will, currently with a 31.5-point implied team total, the highest on the slate.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Ezekiel Elliott vs. Denver Broncos – $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Ezekiel Elliott is an integral part of a high-powered offense with plenty of weapons at Dak Prescott’s disposal. Elliott leads the backfield with a 54% share of carries, seeing 15 or more touches in six of the first seven games this year. In addition to the heavy workload, Elliott also is fourth in target share, seeing 10% of the Cowboys’ looks, averaging 3.7 targets per game.
The Broncos defense took a hit this week, with Von Miller traded to the Los Angeles Rams and having difficulty stopping the run, ranking 27th in rush DVOA. As 8.5-point favorites, the Elliott should also benefit toward the end of the game, if ahead and should see additional opportunity to reach a 75th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Zack Moss vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
With a 35% share of carries, Buffalo Bills running back Zack Moss leads the team in workload, in what looks to be a more distributed backfield with Devin Singletary, who handles a 33% share of carries. In addition to Moss’s share of carries, he looks to have an increased role in the passing game, averaging 3.5 targets per game.
As 17-point favorites, the Bills should throttle the Jaguars. The Jaguars are last in defensive DVOA, likely signaling additional opportunity for Moss to have increased volume in a clock-killing situation and should reach fantasy relevance on volume alone.
Top Rostered: Austin Ekeler vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
At 28% projected ownership, Ezekiel Elliott leads all running backs as most rostered this week. Austin Ekeler, who is currently seeing 21.9% projected ownership in our models, should also be a popular choice for rosters this week, playing in a matchup against the Eagles, with the highest total, currently at 50-points.
The lead back for the Chargers, Ekeler is responsible for 52% of the workload in the backfield and looks to face an Eagles defense that has a hard time stopping the run, ranked 22nd in run DVOA. The volume for Ekeler is there, with the all-purpose running back seeing at least 10 rushing attempts in six of his first eight games this season. Look for Ekeler to also play a role in the passing game, seeing 15% of the target share from quarterback Justin Herbert and only behind Mike Williams and Keenan Allen for the lead in the receiving corps.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill vs. Green Bay Packers – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
A crucial part of the Kansas City Chiefs’ high-powered offense, wide receiver Tyreek Hill has the potential to reach a ceiling outcome every week. The Week 9 matchup looks appealing for Hill, with the Packers ranked 18th in defensive DVOA. With the Chiefs leaning into a pass-first 66%/34% play calling ratio, expect Hill to be a primary recipient of the looks from quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Hill leads the Chiefs receiving corps with a 28% target share and has been targeted seven times in the first seven games of the season, including a season-high 18 targets in a Week 8 win over the New York Giants. Hill should be a no-brainer to reach a 75th-percentile outcome in a pace-up spot and a matchup with shootout potential.
Top Value: Hunter Renfroe vs. New York Giants – $4,800 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
The Raiders tend to prefer passing the ball, using a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling ratio. However, it looks like quarterback Derek Carr spreads the ball out among the receiving corps, with team leader Darren Waller seeing 24% of the target share.
With news breaking Monday of an unfortunate tragedy involving wide receiver Henry Ruggs III, resulting in his release, the receiving corps takes a hit, with 15% of the looks from Carr likely to be distributed. Wide receiver Hunter Renfroe should continue to see an uptick in production; as a result, currently responsible for 20% of the Raiders’ target share.
This year, Renfroe has emerged as a likely preference alongside Waller, seeing at least five targets in every game, averaging 10.5 yards per reception. With a discounted price tag of $4,800 and a strong 0.36 correlation from Carr to the receiving corps dating back to last season, Renfroe should reach value, given the likely volume increase.
Top Rostered: Amari Cooper vs. Denver Broncos – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Hunter Renfroe will likely be the most rostered wide receiver this week, projected for 22% ownership. Amari Cooper also looks to be a popular choice for rosters this week, projected for 22.3% ownership.
Part of the high-powered Cowboys offense, Cooper sees a 21% target share, only behind second-year wideout CeeDee Lamb. With quarterback Dak Prescott’s tendency to throw the ball, using a 57%/43% pass-to-run play calling ratio, Cooper has been targeted five times in six games, including a 13-target performance in a 20-16 win over the Minnesota Vikings (with Cooper Rush taking over quarterback duties).
The Broncos have struggled defensively, ranking 25th in DVOA, setting up a prime opportunity for Cooper to exceed expectations.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Green Bay Packers – $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Like his counterpart, Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce has the potential to reach a ceiling outcome and could almost be considered matchup-proof every week. Kelce is second in target share behind Hill, seeing 22% of the looks from Mahomes and has been targeted at least six times in every game this year.
Kelce is also a viable threat in the red zone, which lends to him reaching a 75th-percentile outcome. This season, Kelce has been targeted in the red zone six times (per AddMoreFunds) and should likely see added volume facing a less-than-stellar Packers defense.
Top Value: Tyler Conklin vs. Baltimore Ravens – $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Priced at $3,000 on DraftKings, Minnesota Vikings tight end Tyler Conklin looks to be an integral part of the Vikings’ receiving corps, responsible for 14% of looks from quarterback Kirk Cousins. Conklin has been targeted at least four times in six games this season, averaging 11 yards per reception. With the Vikings likely using a pass-heavy 60%/40% pass-to-run split, expect Conklin to remain a viable piece in the receiving corps alongside Jefferson and Thielen, especially against a Ravens defense ranked 24th in DVOA.
With the discounted salary, Conklin also gives rosters salary relief and can easily reach value. The Vikings are currently 5.5-point underdogs, so expect Cousins to likely increase the tendency to throw the ball in hopes of keeping the matchup with the Ravens close.
Top Rostered: Albert Okwuegbunam vs. Dallas Cowboys – $2,600 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel
With Noah Fant’s status in question for a Week 9 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, Broncos’ backup tight end Albert Okwuegbunam looks to be the most rostered option at the tight end position this week seeing 32% projected ownership.
Given the deep discount and likely share of targets from quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, Okwuegbunam makes for an interesting choice this week, giving access to high-priced options on the Dallas side of the ball as a bring-back or mini-correlated option. Okwuegbunam has seen at least three targets in three of his first six games and looks to face a difficult Cowboys’ defense ranked sixth in defensive DVOA.
With the Broncos currently 8.5-point underdogs, expect Bridgewater to increase the passing frequency from a pass-first 62%/38% pass-to-run ratio, which should translate into more looks for Okwuegbunam.
