Yahooooo! There are 13 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Kyle Murray ($35) vs. Seattle Seahawks
This game has the highest total on the slate, according to the Vegas Dashboard at 48. Seattle is eighth in rush defense DVOA while being 27th in pass defense, so the path of least resistance is clear. Over the last four games, Murray has attempted 38, 43, 31, and 49 passes while rushing nine, four, four, and seven times. He’s scored at least 20 Yahoo points in three of the last five games with a high of 30.82.
Top Value
Russell Wilson ($26) @ Arizona Cardinals
I’m not crazy about the value at the position, so Wilson it is. I mentioned above that this game has the highest total on the slate. If Murray and the Cardinals can put up points, that will force Seattle to let Russ cook. He’s laughably attempted at least 30 passes in only six games this season.
Top Tournament Play
Josh Allen ($40) vs. New York Jets
I’m curious to see where the projected ownership falls at the position. My early thought is that Allen could go overlooked due to the price tag and volume concerns. If the ownership does come in low, then I have no problems going to Allen. Sure, last week, he only attempted 26 passes for 120 yards, but he rushed 15 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns. The Jets are towards the bottom in both pass and rush defense DVOA, so the Bills will be able to attack in whatever manner they wish. The last time these teams met, Buffalo won 45-17, and Allen put up 21.94 Yahoo points.
Running Backs
Top Play
David Montgomery ($25) @ Minnesota Vikings
Montgomery has received at least 18 carries in four of the last five games. He hasn’t exceeded 100 yards in any contest, but he’s scored four touchdowns. Montgomery is one of the true bellcow backs left as he’s received two, nine, six, seven, and nine targets in the passing game and garnered nine, seven, two, one, and six red-zone carries over that span. The Vikings are 25th in rush defense DVOA, and Montgomery has gone for at least 20 Yahoo points in three of the last five games.
Top Value
Devin Singletary ($23) vs. New York Jets
The Jets are 26th in rush defense DVOA, and the Bills are favored by a slate-high 16.5 points, so the game environment and matchup are pristine for Singletary. Over the last three games, he’s received 23, 12, and 22 carries and scored a touchdown in each contest. In the most recent contest, he went for 110 yards and two touchdowns. He’s received nine, five, and five red-zone carries and should get plenty of looks this week.
Top Tournament Play
Antonio Gibson ($22) @ New York Giants
Gibson missed last game, so he could be out the consciousness of some, but he’s been activated for this one. The Giants are 29th in rush defense DVOA, so the matchup is great. In addition, the ineptness of the Giants offense should allow for plenty of opportunities. All you need to know is that the Football Team is favored by seven points on the road.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Cooper Kupp ($41) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The price is high, so there’s merit to fading him. That said, the floor is so high, and a ceiling outcome is always within the range of outcomes. He’s received at least 10 targets in every game but two. He’s gone for over 30 DraftKings points three times, exceeded 100 yards in 10 games, and has five multi-touchdown games. In the last meeting against the 49ers, he caught 11 of 13 targets for 122 yards.
Top Value
Chase Claypool ($18) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are stout defending the run but are one of the worst at pass defense. The Steelers pass at the second-highest rate, so it’s a match made in heaven. Diontae Johnson was put in the league’s health and safety protocols, so Claypool should be a target hog in this one. Back in Week 3, he garnered 15 targets when Johnson was out.
Top Tournament Play
Christian Kirk ($17) vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals should tilt towards the pass in this one, and Kirk should be heavily involved. He’s received nine, nine, and 12 targets over the last three games with three red-zone targets. Seattle is 27th in pass defense DVOA.
Tight End
Top Play
Zach Ertz ($20) vs. Seattle Seahawks
I like the Cardinals pass offense this week. What can I say? Ertz has received nine, 13, and 11 targets over the last three games. Seattle allows the eighth-most fantasy points and fourth-most touchdowns to the position.
Top Value
David Njoku ($12) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Njoku played in 72% of the snaps last week. He received four targets while Austin Hooper got five. Njoku also had one red-zone target. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points, fifth-most targets, and eighth-most touchdowns to the position.
Top Tournament Play
Pat Freiermuth ($19) @ Baltimore Ravens
The path of least resistance for the Steelers is through the air, and the Ravens have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points, most targets, and fourth-most touchdowns to the position. Freiermuth has seven touchdowns on the season and 18 red-zone targets.
Defense
Top Play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($21) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Bucs blitz at the highest rate in the league are 10th in adjusted sack rate and eighth in pass defense DVOA. The Panthers are 31st in pass blocking according to PFF, so Scooby says, “Ruh Roh.” Tampa Bay has scored double-digit Yahoo points in six games this season with a high of 23. These teams played two weeks ago, with Tampa Bay racking up seven sacks and one interception while holding Carolina to six points.
Top Value
Washington Football Team ($15) @ New York Giants
Mike Glennon and/or Jake Fromm. Is more analysis necessary? The Giants haven’t passed for more than 200 yards since Week 8. They went for negative six yards last week. The Football Team is exploitable in the secondary, as they are 29th in coverage, but I’m not sure the Giants can take advantage. The Giants are 28th in pass blocking while Washington is 14th in pass rush.
Tournament Play
Cleveland Browns ($13) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense has been en fuego lately. The Browns did shut down this offense seven weeks ago, posting 18 Yahoo points with five sacks, one fumble recovery, two interceptions, and a touchdown. That was a ceiling outcome, and the chances of that happening again are limited, but the Bengals are 25th in pass blocking while the Browns are seventh in pass rush.
The teams also know each other very well, so it’s within the range of outcomes that they can stymie the Bengals’ passing game again. If the ownership is high for the Bengals’ passing attack due to recency bias, the Browns defense provides great leverage.
