Yahooooo! There are 14 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Matthew Stafford ($33) @ Baltimore Ravens
Stafford is coming off 9.68 and 16.46 DraftKings performances. Yuck. Hopefully, that decreases the ownership because the Ravens are 29th in pass defense DVOA and, while they blitz at the fifth-highest rate, they are only 26th in adjusted sack rate. The Rams pass at the 12th-highest rate, and the Ravens are seventh in rush defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance lines up with the Rams offensive philosophy. Joe Burrow just lit up this defense for 525 yards and four touchdowns.
Top Value
Trey Lance ($20) vs. Houston Texans
Jimmy Garappolo could play, but all signs point to him being out this weekend. That means Lance would make his second start of the season. In his first start, things didn’t go so well as he went 15-of-29 for 192 yards and one interception. He’s a little more seasoned now, and that game was against Arizona, who is fifth in pass defense DVOA. The Texans are a far cry from that. Now, there is the risk of volume because the 49ers are run-based, and the Texans are porous defending the run. That said, the 49ers are the better team all around, and Shanahan may use this as an opportunity to unleash Lance rather than hiding and protecting him. The rushing prowess provides a high floor for Lance, and there’s upside due to the soft matchup and low price.
Top Tournament Play
Tom Brady ($40) @ New York Jets
He’s expensive, and there are volume concerns. Last week against Carolina, Brady only threw 30 times and produced 14.38 DraftKings points as the Bucs won 32-6. In the prior week, the Saints shut him down for 5.76 DraftKings points. The Bucs are favored by 13 points according to the Vegas Dashboard, and the Jets are 29th in rush defense DVOA, so the run game could take precedence. That said, the Jets are also dead-last in pass-defense DVOA, and for most of the season, the Bucs swept the leg and kept the pedal to the metal. The Bucs may use this as a glorified practice session to get the passing game back on track, especially since they are learning to deal without Godwin and Evans. Brady went for 24.44 and 37.74 DraftKings points in games that the Bucs won 38-3 and 45-17.
Running Backs
Top Play
Jonathan Taylor ($42) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Taylor leads the league with 19 touchdowns and is second in touches. He has 374.2 DraftKings points on the season and is averaging 24.9 per game. Over the last six games, he’s racked up 27, 29, 32, 16, 32, and 21 carries and exceeded 100 yards in all but one of those games. Now he faces a Raiders squad that is 19th in rush defense, according to PFF. The Vegas Dashboard has the Colts as 6.5 favorites in a win-and-in-playoff game, so the game script should be favorable. In addition, Indianapolis will be getting some offensive linemen back for this one.
Top Value
Devin Singletary ($18) vs. Atlanta Falcons
For most of the season, Singletary and Zack Moss were splitting the snaps down the middle. Last week, though, Singletary received 68% of the snaps while Moss was at 33%. Singletary also got six red-zone opportunities to one for Moss. Now, the Bills are one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, and Josh Allen is an option in the red zone, but Singletary did rush 21 times two weeks ago, and there’s a chance he gets a similar workload this Sunday as the Falcons are 25th in rush defense DVOA and the Vegas Dashboard has the Bills favored by 14.5 points.
Top Tournament Play
Joe Mixon ($28) @ Kansas City Chiefs
I’m curious to see what Mixon’s projected ownership will be. I think he will be heavily rostered since this game has the highest total on the slate but will most gravitate towards the passing game due to the aerial eruption last week against the Ravens? Mixon did go for 28.5 DraftKings points last week due to his passing game involvement, but he hasn’t received 20 carries in four straight games and scored fewer than 10 DraftKings points in the three prior contests. The Chiefs are 21st in rush defense DVOA, and they prefer to play slow and ground and pound if given the opportunity. This week, there would be the added benefit of keeping the Chiefs’ offense off the field. In Weeks 11 and 12, Mixon rushed 30 and 28 times.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Antonio Brown ($28) @ New York Jets
Last week, with no Godwin or Evans, Brown caught 10 of 15 targets for 101 yards. Brady only threw 30 times, so my handy abacus says that’s a whopping 50% target share! The Jets are dead-last in pass-defense DVOA.
Top Value
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($19) @ Seattle Seahawks
Over the last four games, St. Brown has received 11, 11, 12, and 12 targets. He’s hauled in nine, eight, eight, and 10 for 91, 90, 73, and 86 yards. He’s scored a total of three touchdowns during that span. The Seahawks are 28th in pass-defense DVOA.
Top Tournament Play
DK Metcalf ($19) vs. Detroit Lions
Volume is always a concern for the Seahawks’ passing game because they would prefer to ground and pound. There is a chance that the Lions can score in this one which could open up things for the Seahawks. If that happens, then fantasy goodies could rain down from the heavens like manna for the Israelites. The Lions are 26th in pass-defense DVOA and allow the highest aDOT in the league. Metcalf is top 25 in aDOT. Now, Metcalf has eight games with fewer than 10 DraftKings points, so the floor is low, and he’s exceeded 20 only once this season. There’s a reason why he’s cheap, but the ownership should be low, and he has multi-touchdown upside and can score on any given play.
Tight End
Top Play
Travis Kelce ($31) @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the position and eighth-most targets. This game has a 51 total according to the Vegas Dashboard, so points should be scored. The Bengals are seventh in rush defense DVOA while the Chiefs are seventh in pass rate, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Kelce.
Top Value
Foster Moreau ($14) @ Indianapolis Colts
Darren Waller will likely miss another game, so Moreau should see most of the snaps again. He’s played 85, 98, 100, and 94% of the snaps in the games Waller has been out. He hasn’t been great, but, over the last two games, he’s received four and nine targets and caught four and seven passes for 65 and 67 yards. The Colts have allowed the most targets and third-most fantasy points to the position.
Top Tournament Play
Tyler Higbee ($19) @ Baltimore Ravens
Higbee has scored double-digit DraftKings points only once this season. He’s scored three touchdowns and exceeded 100 yards only once. The action is going to tilt towards the air in this one, and the Ravens have allowed fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Kupp, Beckham, and Jefferson will likely soak up most of the ownership for the Rams, so Higbee could go underlooked.
Defense
Top Play
New England Patriots ($23) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bill Belichick against Trevor Lawrence? Please and thank you. The Pats have exceeded point expectations 60% of the time, with seven games over 10. Two of those games were over 20. They have racked up 33 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, 21 interceptions, and four touchdowns.
Top Value
Chicago Bears ($12) vs. New York Giants
The Bears are favored by six points. That’s all you need to know about the state of the New York Giants. Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm could both play this weekend.
Tournament Play
Tennessee Titans ($16) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Titans are at home and are third in pass coverage, according to PFF. The Dolphins have the worst-rated offensive line play and are 30th in run blocking. The Titans are ninth in adjusted sack rate. They have scored at least 10 DraftKings points in five games with one above 20.
