The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 16 NFL slate. We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Keep an eye on injury and COVID-19 news throughout the weekend.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Matthew Stafford vs. Minnesota Vikings – $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
In a matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, leading a high-powered Los Angeles Rams offense, ranked fourth (per PFF), quarterback Matthew Stafford projects for the highest ceiling among the position this week. Currently the highest total on the slate at 48.5-points, Stafford handles under center duties for more of the more pass-heavy offenses in the league, calling a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling ratio (per RotoViz). Benefitting from a virtually matchup-proof receiving corps led by Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., Stafford looks to have an ideal matchup facing a Vikings defense ranked 18th in pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
Looking at the Trends tool, in matchups with a total above 48.5-points, Stafford averages 19.97 actual DraftKings points and a +0.33 Plus/Minus. Averaging more than 295 passing yards per game this year, look for Stafford to potentially reach an 85th-percentile outcome as the Rams continue their dominance in the NFC West.
Top Value: Justin Fields vs. Seattle Seahawks – $5,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Rookie quarterback Justin Fields projects as the top value play, facing a Seattle Seahawks defense ranked 25th in DVOA. A dual-threat option for the Chicago Bears, Fields handles under center duties for an offense that runs a more balanced 56%/44% pass-to-run play calling ratio.
Lately, Fields has increased his rushing attempts, recording nine and seven attempts in the previous two games. Ranking seventh in rush DVOA might be a problem for the mobile quarterback. However, Chicago may opt for an increase in their passing game as 6.5-point underdogs, in hopes of keeping the matchup close, with wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet likely seeing an increase in their target volume.
With a discounted $5,200 price tag on DraftKings, Fields provides salary relief, giving access to the higher-priced Seahawks receiving corps, which is concentrated to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as bring-back options in game stacks.
Top Rostered: Justin Herbert vs. Houston Texans – $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Currently projected for 14% ownership, Justin Herbert looks to be a popular option for rosters this week, in what looks to be an ideal matchup, facing a Houston Texans defense ranked 17th in DVOA. In a matchup currently at 46-points and one of the more expected higher-scoring affairs on the week, Hebert should have no problem reaching fantasy relevance, especially managing under center duties for a Chargers offense ranked eighth and calling one of the most pass-heavy play scripts in the league with a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio. Look for Herbert to rely on wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who are responsible for more than 46% of the Chargers’ target share.
Herbert’s ownership may be warranted entirely in an ideal matchup and likely passing volume and should be considered a top play on the slate.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Austin Ekeler vs. Houston Texans – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
NOTE: At the time of this writing, Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler is still on the COVID-19 Injured Reserve. Be sure to keep an eye on Ekeler’s status throughout the weekend and leading up to kickoff.
The lead back in the Chargers’ backfield, Austin Ekeler, handles more than 50% of the share of carries this season, averaging 4.56 yards per carry. Houston’s defense has also had a challenging time this season in stopping the run, ranking 27th in rush DVOA, which will likely set up a smash spot for the Chargers’ backfield. With a 10.5-point spread, this Week 16 matchup has the potential for a blowout, which would signal an opportunity for Ekeler to easily reach a ceiling outcome, given the likely volume and involvement in the passing game, averaging 5.6 targets per game.
Top Value: Ronald Jones vs. Carolina Panthers – $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
With lead running back Leonard Fournette out of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ backfield with a hamstring injury, Ronald Jones will likely absorb the share of carries and re-establish himself as the lead running back. Projecting as the top value at the running back position, Jones this season is averaging 4.75 yards per carry, seeing a 22% share of the rushes in the high-powered Buccaneers offense. Despite Tampa Bay’s tendency to throw the ball with quarterback Tom Brady under center, look for Jones to easily reach fantasy relevance, given his discounted price tag on DraftKings and an uptick in rushing volume.
Tampa Bay is currently a 10-point favorite. In a matchup facing a Panthers’ defense ranked 24th in rush DVOA, look for Jones to have increased involvement, significantly if the game tilts toward the Buccaneers’ favor as a blowout.
Top Rostered: James Robinson vs. New York Jets – $5,900 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Facing what may be the worst defense in the league in the New York Jets, James Robinson projects to be a popular choice in rosters this week, currently projected for 35.1% projected ownership. The lead back in the Jaguars run game, Robinson is responsible for 56% of the share in carries, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Coming off an 18-attempt performance in a 30-16 loss to the Houston Texans, Robinson should have an opportunity for continued volume, facing the Jets, who rank last in DVOA.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Minnesota Vikings – $9,100 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
A virtually matchup-proof weapon, Cooper Kupp projects for the highest ceiling on the slate. The primary target for quarterback Matthew Stafford, Kupp sees 32% of the target share in the pass-heavy Rams’ offense, averaging 11.7 targets per game and 13.3 yards per reception. The Vikings rank 18th in pass DVOA, which should likely allow Kupp multiple opportunities to reach the 85th-percentile outcome and should be considered an absolute in stacking with Stafford or Kirk Cousins.
Top Value: Zay Jones vs. Denver Broncos – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Since Week 12, Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Zay Jones has had five or more targets in every game, including a season-high nine target performance in a 16-14 win over the Cleveland Browns, averaging 11.2 yards per reception. In the Raiders’ offense, which is one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, seeing a 64%/36% pass-to-run play calling ratio with quarterback Derek Carr under center, Jones should reach fantasy relevance as the top value among the wide receiver position, given his volume should likely remain the same.
Ranked 20th in pass DVOA, the matchup with the Broncos should prove to be an ideal matchup for a wide receiver with a discounted salary and a high share of targets.
Top Rostered: Antonio Brown vs. Carolina Panthers – $4,900 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
This week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown should be an extremely popular choice in lineups, projected for 31% ownership, only lower than Rams’ wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Chris Godwin is out for the rest of the season, and Mike Evans is currently listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Brown should appear as the lead weapon in the Buccaneers receiving corps and likely see an uptick in production and looks from quarterback Tom Brady. Brady leads a Buccaneers’ offense that is the most pass-heavy in the league, calling a 67%/33% pass-to-run play calling ratio.
Despite facing a Carolina Panthers defense ranked eighth in pass DVOA, Brown should easily reach fantasy relevance and looks to be one of the top plays on the slate.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Mark Andrews vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Coming off a slate-breaking performance in Week 15, catching 10 passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers, Mark Andrews projects for the highest ceiling this week, facing a Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked 17th in pass DVOA. Andrews has quietly recorded top-level stats in a position dominated by Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller. With a 24% share of targets in the Baltimore offense, Andrews has seen seven or more targets in 11 games this season, averaging 12.7 yards per reception and seven touchdowns.
The more manageable than expected matchup should lean Andrews to likely repeat a ceiling performance. Interestingly, Andrews is the leader in red-zone targets among all tight ends, seeing 18 this season (per AddMoreFunds).
Top Value: CJ Uzomah vs. Baltimore Ravens – $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Seeing a recent uptick in volume, Cincinnati Bengals tight end CJ Uzomah projects as the top value this week. In what looked to be a more popular choice in Week 15, Uzomah should look to bounce back from a three catch, 18-yard performance in a 15-10 win over the Denver Broncos. Seeing 11% of the Bengals target share, Uzomah has seen more than five targets in two of the last three games.
The Week 16 matchup against the Ravens, who rank 29th in pass DVOA, looks more ideal for a turnaround and should allow Uzomah to reach fantasy relevance, especially with a deep discount at $3,000 on DraftKings.
Top Rostered: Rob Gronkowski vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,200 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Projected for 13% ownership, Rob Gronkowski looks to be the most popular choice at tight end this week. Quarterback Tom Brady may rely heavily on injuries plaguing the high-powered Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, with Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette out for the year and Mike Evans questionable with a hamstring injury. Gronk and Antonio Brown as the primary weapons.
Gronk is responsible for 16% of the Buccaneers target share with an established rapport with Brady, only behind Godwin and Evans in the receiving corps. Look for an uptick in targets coming from Brady to Gronk in a matchup that should justify the ownership.
