Yahooooo! There are 11 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. There are no more byes, but Saturday has a two-game slate that takes four teams off the main slate.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Aaron Rodgers ($32) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are fourth in rush defense DVOA but 26th in pass-defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance is through the air. Baltimore also blitzes at the third-highest rate, yet they are only 28th in adjusted sack rate. Green Bay is ninth in pass blocking. Rodgers has gone for 29.64, 26.28, and 33.5 Yahoo points over the last three games. On the season, the Ravens have allowed Derek Carr to throw for 409 yards, Patrick Mahomes for 343, Carson Wentz for 402, and Joe Burrow for 416.
Top Value
Davis Mills ($23) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Vegas Dashboard has this game with a lowly 39.5 total. That said, in the first meeting between these teams, the final score was 37-21, and Urban Meyer is no longer the coach of Jacksonville, so the players may have an extra boost of adrenaline! Mills was impressive last week, going 33-of-49 for 331 yards and a touchdown against a Seattle defense that is 28th in pass-defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted sack rate. Well, the Jaguars are 30th in pass-defense DVOA and 29th in adjusted sack rate!
Top Tournament Play
Jimmy Garoppolo ($29) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The ownership should be low, and he provides direct leverage off of what should be a popular Elijah Mitchell (pending injury) at running back. The Falcons are 29th in pass-defense DVOA and dead-last in adjusted sack rate. They allow the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Garoppolo has thrown for over 300 yards three times this season, and over the last two games, he’s put up 296 and 299. He hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns in any contest and has exceeded 20 Yahoo points only three times, but there’s a good chance for a ceiling game in this one.
Running Backs
Top Play
Najee Harris ($25) vs. Tennessee Titans
Harris leads the league with 297 total touches. He gets the between-the-20s carries, the long down and distance snaps, the goal line rushes, and the hurry-up opportunities. Translation: he’s one of the few remaining bell cow backs in the league. He hasn’t accessed a ceiling game with anything above 24 Yahoo points, but he’s scored double digits in all but two games this season, with four above 20, so the floor is high.
Top Value
Devonta Freeman ($18) vs. Green Bay Packers
The health of Lamar Jackson will be big for this one, but Tyle Huntley showed that he’s more than capable of leading the offense. After never playing in more than 60% of the snaps, Freeman has received 69% and 66% of the snaps over the last two games. He’s received double-digit carries in six straight games, and he has 36 targets on the season. In the red zone, he has 14 rushes and seven targets. The Packers are 27th in rush defense DVOA.
Top Tournament Play
Saquon Barkley ($16) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Barkley was a $27 player to open the season. After the injury, he was priced at $20. Last week was the first time under $20 at $19. He’s been underwhelming, and he only played 55% of the snaps last week, as Devontae Booker soaked up 41%. That said, he still carried 16 times for 64 yards and caught all three of his targets for 31 yards and a touchdown. There are reasons why he’s written up in the tournament section, but he’s cheap for his role.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Davante Adams ($32) @ Baltimore Ravens
Aaron Rodgers is one of my favorite quarterbacks this week, so it only makes sense to write up Adams. For full disclosure, I love Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp this week as well. Adams is $6 cheaper than Kupp. He’s third in the league with 10.8 targets per game and fourth in total targets despite missing a game. I went over the struggles that the Ravens have in defending passing attacks in the Rodgers section above.
Top Value
Brandin Cooks ($17) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I like Davis Mills and went over the poor defensive metrics for the Jaguars above. Cooks caught eight of 11 targets for 101 yards last week and has 108 targets on the season, which leads the team by a wide margin. He has five games with at least 10 targets.
Top Tournament Play
DeVante Parker ($17) vs. New York Jets
The Dolphins are favored by 10 points over the Jets at home so they could ground-and-pound their 31st rush defense DVOA into submission. The Jets are also dead-last in pass defense DVOA, and the Dolphins throw at the sixth-highest rate. Jaylen Waddle has been placed on the COVID-19 list so many of those targets could flow Parker’s way. Waddle has 116 targets on the season and received 11, 10, and nine over the last three games. In his return from a four-game absence, Parker received five.
Tight End
Top Play
George Kittle ($33) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Over the last two games, Kittle has been an absolute monster: 13 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown and nine receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns. That was on 12 and 15 targets. All of that translated to 35.1 and 27.6 Yahoo points. Can we expect another ceiling game like that? Probably not, but there’s no denying the volume and opportunities. That’s all you can ask for, and the access to that kind of ceiling is unmatched by most on the slate.
Top Value
John Bates ($10) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Bates played in 71% of the snaps last week. He did only receive two targets, though. That said, the Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this season.
Top Tournament Play
Marcedes Lewis ($10) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Packers should tilt towards the aerial attack this week so all pass catchers are viable options. With Robert Tonyan out, Lewis and Josiah Deguara both played around 55% of the snaps last week. Lewis had four targets to Deguara’s two, and Lewis had two red-zone looks. The Ravens allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
Defense
Top Play
Miami Dolphins ($19) vs. New York Jets
Have you seen Zach Wilson play? Exactly. The Dolphins are 10-point favorites at home. They blitz at the second-highest rate in the league and have four games with at least 10 Yahoo points with a high of 23. They have held the last five opponents to under 20 points, with two of those games under 10. On the season, they have racked up 31 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, 11 interceptions, and three touchdowns.
Top Value
Tennessee Titans ($14) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Titans are middle of the pack in most defensive metrics. That said, they have exceeded point expectations 50% of the time this season. They have five games with at least 10 Yahoo points and a high of 21. They’ve racked up 32 sacks, four fumble recoveries, 13 interceptions, and three touchdowns. The Steelers pass at the fourth-highest rate, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown seven interceptions and taken 30 sacks.
Tournament Play
Carolina Panthers ($14) @ Buffalo Bills
The Panthers are fifth in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. The Bills have had issues with pass blocking and against teams that sit back and play zone while getting pressure with only four. If they are able to limit and score fantasy points against the Bills, that provides leverage against Bills stacks. That said, there’s a reason why this is a tournament play. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the league, and the Panthers have gotten lit up for 29, 33, and 27 points in the last three games.
