The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 15 NFL slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Keep an eye on injury and COVID-19 news throughout the weekend.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Kyler Murray vs. Detroit Lions – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Kyler Murray leads an Arizona Cardinals offense with the highest implied team total on the slate, currently at 30 points and playing in the highest total on the slate at 47.5-points. Despite the absence of DeAndre Hopkins due to a knee injury, Murray appears to be in prime form, running a more balanced approach to the high-powered offense, using a 54%/46% pass-to-run play calling ratio (per RotoViz).
The Cardinals also have one of the highest no-huddle rates in the league, using the formation 30% of the time. Week 15 gives Murray an ideal position to reach his 75-percentile outcome, facing a Detroit Lions defense ranked 31st in DVOA (per Football Outsiders), only behind the New York Jets. With Murray’s ability to air the ball to a featured receiving corps of AJ Green, Rondale Jones and Christian Kirk, and his running upside, look for an absolute smash spot from the highest projected quarterback on the slate.
Top Value: Dak Prescott vs. New York Giants – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Leading the second-ranked Dallas Cowboys offense (per PFF), quarterback Dak Prescott projects as the top value at the position this week. Facing a New York Giants defense ranked 18th in DVOA sets up an ideal situation for Prescott and a Cowboys receiving corps featuring Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz. The Cowboys are one of the more pass-friendly teams in the league, using a 60%/40% pass-to-run ratio and are the second fastest team, averaging a play every 24.7 seconds.
In a classic NFC East matchup, look for Dallas to keep their foot on the pedal against a weak Giants defense, which should allow Prescott to reach fantasy relevance in what looks to be a more discounted price on DraftKings. As 10.5-point favorites, Dallas may opt to also involve Ezekiel Elliott into the play calling, especially in a clock-killing situation. Given Elliott’s versatility, the all-purpose running back could factor as a unique stacking option with Dak, especially at lower ownership.
Per the Trends tool, in matchups above a 44.5-point total, Prescott averages 20.59 actual DraftKings points with a +1.31 Plus/Minus.
Top Rostered: Tua Tagovailoa vs. New York Jets – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
With Kyler Murray projecting as the most popular play at 16.1% ownership, another popular choice this week looks to be Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, currently projected for 14.8% ownership. Tua and the Dolphins benefit from facing a New York Jets defense ranked last in DVOA and look to be unable to stop any offense. In the receiving corps, wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker look to be the primary beneficiaries in the passing game, responsible for more than 45% of the Dolphins’ target share.
As one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run play calling ratio, expect a full allotment of passes from Tua, which should allow him to reach fantasy relevance in a game environment that warrants the likely popularity in rosters.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Najee Harris vs. Tennessee Titans – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Najee Harris projects for the highest ceiling on the week, facing a Tennessee Titans defense ranked 18th in rush DVOA. The lead back in the Steelers offense, responsible for 76% of the carries in the backfield, the rookie running back also appears to never leave the field, averaging 58 snaps per game, good for 85% of the snaps from the Steelers (per RotoViz).
Harris also factors into the Steelers’ passing game, averaging 5.8 targets per game, on top of his 18.2 rushing attempts per game. Given Harris’s total involvement in the Steelers’ offense, facing a more than ideal Titans defense, look for the versatile back to potentially reach a 75th-percentile outcome this week.
Top Value: James Robinson vs. Houston Texans – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
James Robinson projects as the top value. The Jaguars’ backfield leader handles 54% of the share in carries, averaging 12 rushing attempts per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Robinson also factors into the Jaguars’ passing game, seeing 3.3 targets per game.
Facing a Houston Texans defense ranked 28th in rush, DVOA should set Robinson up for fantasy relevance, especially with a high workload in the Jacksonville offense. Keep an eye on the status of Robinson, who did not practice Thursday, dealing with a lingering heel injury.
Top Rostered: Michael Carter vs. Miami Dolphins – $4,700 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
At 30% projected ownership, James Robinson looks to be the most popular option for rosters this week. However, at 19.7% projected ownership, New York Jets running back Michael Carter should often appear in rosters this week. Carter is expected to return in Week 15, missing three weeks with an ankle injury.
Carter is responsible for more than 53% of the share of carries in the backfield, averaging 11 rush attempts per game and 3.87 yards per carry. Despite a tough matchup against a Miami Dolphins defense, which ranks 11th in DVOA, he should provide rosters salary relief, given a more discounted price tag on DraftKings, and looks to be the ideal bring-back or correlated option for Miami skill players.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Seattle Seahawks – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Cooper Kupp is having a breakout season, projecting for the highest ceiling among the position. This year, Kupp is averaging 11.6 targets per game from quarterback Matthew Stafford, including a season-high 15 targets in a Week 14, 30-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Kupp averages 13.2 yards per reception and leads the league in touchdowns with 12. Even with small sample size, Kupp appears to be highly correlated with Stafford, seeing a 0.31 correlation coefficient.
Despite a short week, after playing Monday night, the Rams’ matchup with the Seahawks looks to have shootout potential in a game total with 45-points. Seattle also looks to have a challenging time defending the pass, ranking 28th in pass DVOA, which should allow Kupp the ability to reach a 75-percentile outcome. The Rams are also one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, using a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling ratio, and with a 32% target share, Kupp should be the first look in the passing game.
Editor’s note: Seahawks-Rams has been postponed to Tuesday. Visit the models to see who has the highest Ceiling Projection on the main slate.
Top Value: Gabriel Davis vs. Carolina Panthers – $3,700 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Gabriel Davis projects as the top value this week. With a knee injury sidelining Emmanuel Sanders, Davis should see an uptick in production, currently responsible for an 8% target share. In the Week 14 33-27 overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Davis saw a season-high eight targets, catching five passes for 43 yards and one touchdown.
The trend should likely continue for Davis, especially with the Bills’ clinging to the seventh seed in the playoff picture, creating a sense of urgency for quarterback Josh Allen and the high-powered Buffalo offense. With a steep discount and likely volume, expect Davis to reach fantasy relevance easily, despite a difficult matchup against a Carolina Panthers defense ranked 10th in DVOA.
Top Rostered: DeVante Parker vs. New York Jets – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Cooper Kupp projects the most popular choice for rosters at the wide receiver position this week. However, Miami Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker should also appear in lineups often, currently projected for 23% ownership. Parker and the Dolphins offense have a prime matchup against a New York Jets defense ranked last in DVOA. Parker is also one of the first looks for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, responsible for 21% of the Dolphins’ target share.
Parker is averaging eight targets per game and 13 yards per reception. Even with an injury-riddled season and with a more manageable price tag on DraftKings, he should give rosters a bit of relief, opening options for higher-priced weapons.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: George Kittle vs. Atlanta Falcons – $7,400 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Without Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, George Kittle projects for the position’s highest ceiling on the slate. Responsible for a 25% target share, only behind wide receiver Deebo Samuel, Kittle factors into the 49ers’ passing game and looks to have an ideal matchup this week, facing an Atlanta Falcons defense ranked 30th in DVOA.
Despite a more balanced approach to their play calling, using a 53%/47% pass-to-run play-calling ratio, Kittle could potentially see a 75th-percentile outcome, mostly in part from his eight targets per game, 13 yards per reception and high involvement in the red zone, seeing six targets this year (per AddMoreFunds).
Top Value: CJ Uzomah vs. Denver Broncos – $3,100 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
This week, Cincinnati Bengals tight end CJ Uzomah projects as the top value among the tight end position. In the previous two weeks, Uzomah has seen six targets per game and looks to have an uptick in production as part of the Bengals receiving corps.
Denver ranks 21st in DVOA, setting up an ideal matchup for Uzomah, despite the Bengals’ more balanced approach, using a 57%/43% pass-to-run play calling ratio. With a near-minimum salary and likely volume from quarterback Joe Burrow, Uzomah should reach fantasy relevance, especially with the Bengals likely increasing their passing cadence as 2.5-point road underdogs.
Top Rostered: Tyler Higbee vs. Seattle Seahawks – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Currently projected for 17.6% ownership, Tyler Higbee looks to be the most popular option among tight ends this week. Seattle ranks 28th in pass DVOA, which should set up Higbee in an ideal spot as an integral part of the Rams’ receiving corps.
This season, Higbee is responsible for 14% of the looks from quarterback Matthew Stafford, averaging 5.6 targets per game and nine yards per reception. With the status of Odell Beckham Jr. in question, Higbee could see more production in the passing game, with the Rams preferring a pass-first approach, using a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling split. Aside from Cooper Kupp, Higbee looks to be a great stacking option for Stafford or a bring-back with Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson.
Editor’s note: Seahawks-Rams has been postponed to Tuesday. Visit the models to see which tight end has the highest Ownership Projection on the main slate.
