The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 14 NFL slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Tom Brady vs. Buffalo Bills – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
In a marquee matchup for Week 14, Tom Brady projects for the highest ceiling this week, coming off a four-touchdown performance in a Week 13, 30-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Brady leads the league with 34 touchdowns and is playing in a matchup with the highest total on the slate, currently at 53.5-points. Despite facing a Buffalo Bills defense ranked first in DVOA (per Football Outsiders), Brady is almost virtually matchup-proof, thanks to a diverse receiving corps of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski and running back Leonard Fournette, creating a high-powered offense that has the highest pass rate in the league, calling a 67%/33% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz).
Brady can reach a 75th-percentile outcome solely through the air with many stacking configurations and high passing volume. Per the Trends tool, in games with a 53.5-point total or higher, Brady averages 21.17 actual DraftKings points and a -0.17 Plus/Minus rating.
Top Value: Taysom Hill vs. New York Jets – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
All-purpose player Taysom Hill has taken over under center duties for the New Orleans Saints and projects as a top value play this week. In a Week 13, 27-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Hill completed 19 passes for 264 yards, also rushing for 101 yards on 11 attempts. Hill should be in a prime spot, facing a New York Jets defense ranked last in DVOA. Dealing with a lingering finger injury suffered in Week 13, Hill may increase his rushing workload, likely splitting time with Alvin Kamara, who is expected to return after missing five weeks due to a knee injury.
With a discounted price on DraftKings, Hill should reach fantasy relevance given his dual-threat ability, combined with the return of a high-powered weapon in Kamara.
Top Rostered: Cam Newton vs. Atlanta Falcons – $5,400 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Taysom Hill projects as the most popular quarterback on the slate this week. However, Cam Newton could also be a popular choice for rosters, currently projected for 11.6% ownership. Like Hill, Newton’s dual-threat ability allows him to reach value, especially facing an Atlanta Falcons defense ranked 29th in DVOA, setting up an ideal matchup. Carolina plays at a 26.6 second per snap pace, one of the slowest in the league and, as 2.5-point road favorites, may slow the game down further in a clock-kill situation.
Aside from Newton’s running ability, don’t discredit the passing game, with a receiving corps featuring DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, who are responsible for a combined 45% target share, squaring off against a Falcons’ defense that has a hard time defending the pass, ranking 29th in pass DVOA.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Austin Ekeler vs. New York Giants – $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
The New York Giants rank 31st in rush DVOA, setting up an ideal situation for Austin Ekeler. An integral part of the Chargers offense, Ekeler is responsible for 55% of the workload in the backfield, averaging 4.45 yards per carry. With the status of wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in question due to the league’s COVID-19 protocols, Ekeler may have to absorb a portion of quarterback Justin Herbert’s looks in the passing game.
As the eighth-ranked offense (per PFF) and with the third-highest passing rate in the league, Ekeler, who already sees a 15% target share, can reach a ceiling outcome, given his likely uptick in production.
Top Value: Antonio Gibson vs. Dallas Cowboys – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
In a classic NFC East rivalry, Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson projects as a top value among running backs this week. Since Week 9, Gibson has seen a massive increase in touches, averaging 23.8 rushing attempts per game and 3.77 yards per carry. A weak spot in the Cowboys defense appears to be their ability to hold the run, ranking 19th in rush DVOA, which should set Gibson up for fantasy relevance if the likely volume remains.
Gibson also has factored into the passing game as of late, seeing a combined 13 targets over the last two weeks. Look for Washington and quarterback Taylor Heinicke to involve Gibson as a crucial part of the offense, already seeing a massive 58% share carries in the backfield.
Top Rostered: Josh Jacobs vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
With injuries affecting the Las Vegas Raiders’ backfield, Josh Jacobs appears to be a popular choice at running back this week, projected for 25.7% ownership, only behind Austin Ekeler and Antonio Gibson. Jacobs benefits from a prime matchup against a Kansas City Chiefs defense ranked 26th in rush DVOA. Already seeing a 57% share of work in the backfield, Jacobs should have an uptick in production with Kenyon Drake out for the season with an ankle injury.
Jacobs should also factor into the passing game, seeing a 16% target share and should be a practical bring-back option, playing opposite to Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
This week, a pivotal piece to the Kansas City Chiefs offense, wide receiver Tyreek Hill projects for the highest ceiling on the slate. Leading the Chiefs’ receiving corps with a 25% target share, Hill averages more than 10 targets per game and 5.56 yards per target. The Raiders’ defense ranks 23rd in DVOA and, given quarterback Patrick Mahomes’s tendency to use Hill as the first look in the passing game, expect a ceiling outcome, especially with the big-play upside from the top-tier wideout.
Top Value: Josh Palmer vs. New York Giants – $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel
The Chargers’ receiving corps is decimated, with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams landing on the COVID-19 injured reserve this week. If both players are out for Sunday’s matchup with the New York Giants, wide receiver Josh Palmer should see a massive uptick in production. Priced at the DraftKings minimum, Palmer should absorb part of Allen and Williams’s 42% target share. Averaging 69 plays per game and in a pass-heavy offense, Palmer can reach fantasy relevance because of the likely volume of passing coming his way from Justin Herbert, despite facing a New York Giants defense ranked eighth in pass DVOA.
Top Rostered: Jalen Guyton vs. New York Giants – $3,400 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Currently, Josh Palmer projects for the most ownership this week at 30.8%, however, his counterpart in the Chargers’ receiving corps Jaylen Guyton should also be a popular choice, given his $3,400 price tag on DraftKings and likely uptick in volume if Allen and Williams still are out for Sunday’s matchup. Guyton looks to be the deep-threat option for the Chargers’ seeing 14.2 average total air yards and more than 12 yards per target. With the big-play upside of Guyton, the Chargers may need to rely on Guyton to grab the win, currently 6-point favorites against the Giants.
Be sure to monitor the news for updates on Allen and Williams.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Given his large share of production in the offense, Travis Kelce consistently projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends. Kelce is second in target share, seeing more than 23% of the looks from Patrick Mahomes and looks to be one of the first looks when the Chiefs are in the red zone, responsible for nine targets this year (per AddMoreFunds). Las Vegas has a weak passing defense, and given the likely volume, Kelce should reach a ceiling outcome, especially if he finds his way into the end zone.
Top Value: Austin Hooper vs. Baltimore Ravens – $3,400 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Austin Hooper has been quietly productive this season and projects as a top value play this week. Responsible for 15% of the Browns’ target share, Hooper averages more than five yards per target and is second among the receiving corps in looks from quarterback Baker Mayfield, only behind wide receiver Jarvis Landry. Cleveland may find success in the passing game despite the Browns’ balanced play-calling, using a 53%/47% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, facing a Ravens’ defense ranked 27th in pass DVOA.
This year, Hooper has also seen eight red zone targets, which should make him a relevant option, given the deep discount on DraftKings and unique pairing with Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Top Rostered: Jared Cook vs. New York Giants – $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Projected for 23.4% ownership, Los Angeles Chargers tight end Jared Cook looks to be a popular option this week at the tight end position. Cook, who is fourth in the Chargers’ receiving corps with an 11% target share, should be a significant part of the offense, with the potential loss of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, leaving Justin Herbert a receiving corps of Cook, Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer and Jaylen Guyton. Despite a tough matchup against the Giants’ defense, Cook should see plenty of volume his way as part of the Chargers’ pass-first offense.
Be sure to monitor news and projections to see how Cook’s projection is impacted pending the Chargers news.
