Yahooooo! There are 11 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Panthers, Browns, Packers, and Titans are on bye.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Matthew Stafford ($32) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Rams have the second-highest implied total on the slate at 30.25. They opened at 28.25 so it has been bet up. The Jaguars are surprisingly 14th in rush defense DVOA but are dead-last in pass defense DVOA. Stafford has scored fewer than 20 DraftKings points in two of the last three games but went for 302 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Packers. The Rams have lost three straight, so there is no messing around this Sunday. An offensive onslaught is well within the range of outcomes. Out of the top quarterback options on the slate, Stafford is the only one playing at home. The completion percentage is three points higher at home for Stafford, while the quarterback rating is six points higher.
Top Value
Justin Fields ($20) vs. Arizona Cardinals
I don’t like the value options at all this weekend. Tyrod Taylor was my favorite, but he’s priced at $26. Writing up Fields is gross, but the rushing prowess alone makes him interesting. The floor is super low, but he did put up 19.14, and 26.3 Yahoo points against the Steelers and 49ers a few weeks ago as he rushed eight times for 45 yards and 10 times for 103 yards with a touchdown.
Top Tournament Play
Kirk Cousins ($33) @ Detroit Lions
Alexander Mattison should be extremely popular this weekend, especially since he is only $18. What if all the scoring comes via the air in this one? Cousins will likely be low-owned and provides direct leverage against all the Mattison rosters. The Lions are 28th in pass-defense DVOA.
Running Backs
Top Play
Jonathan Taylor ($41) @ Houston Texans
Against a tough Buccaneers rush defense, Taylor “only” put up 17.7 Yahoo points. He still went for 83 yards and scored a touchdown. He’s scored in nine consecutive games and totaled 14 over that span. He’s gone for at least 15 Yahoo points in all of those contests, with three above 30 and a high of 51.9. The Texans are 25th in rush defense DVOA, and the Colts are favored by 9.5 points, so the game script should be favorable. There is volume concern due to potential blowout, but the last time Taylor faced the Texans, the Colts won 31-3, and Taylor rushed 14 times for 145 yards and two touchdowns.
Top Value
Alexander Mattison ($18) @ Detroit Lions
Dalvin Cook is out, so Mattison will be the main guy this weekend. Detroit is 21st in rush defense DVOA and is seven-point underdogs. Mattison has started four games in his career:
- 10/18/2020 against Atlanta – 10 rushes for 26 yards with one reception on two targets for four yards.
- 1/3/2021 against Detroit – 21 rushes for 95 yards and a touchdown with three receptions on three targets for 50 yards and a touchdown.
- 9/26/2021 against Seattle – 26 rushes for 112 yards with six receptions on eight targets for 59 yards.
- 10/10/2021 against Detroit – 25 rushes for 113 yards with seven receptions on seven targets for 40 yards and a touchdown.
Top Tournament Play
Myles Gaskin ($17) vs. New York Giants
This isn’t a leverage play as Tua, and the Dolphins passing game likely won’t be highly rostered. That said, Gaskin is cheap and has a fantastic matchup against a Giants team that is 31st in rush defense DVOA. He’s received double-digit carries in each of the last six games and has at least 20 in two of those contests. Over the last four weeks, he has five, eight, four, and three red-zone carries with two total targets. The Dolphins are favored by four points at home, so the game script could be a favorable one for Gaskin.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Diontae Johnson ($25) vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are fifth in rush defense DVOA but only 24th in pass-defense DVOA. While Ben Roethlisberger kind of stinks now, he’s attempted 41 and 44 passes in the last two games and gone for at least 40 in six games this season. Johnson leads the Steelers with 109 targets and has received 14, 13, and 13 in the last three games. On the season, he’s received at least 10 targets in eight of 10 games played. He has two games with 9.0 Yahoo points. Every other game, he’s gone over 10. He’s exceeded point expectations 70% of the time.
Top Value
Odell Beckham ($19) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I explained why I like the Rams passing attack this weekend. Beckham played in 98% of the snaps last weekend and garnered 10 targets, the same number as Cooper Kupp, who is $19 more expensive.
Top Tournament Play
Justin Jefferson ($32) or Adam Thielen ($25) @ Detroit Lions
Both receivers should be low-owned since many will go with Alexander Mattison at running back. If the points are scored via the passing attack, you’d get those points at low ownership and leap over the Mattison rosters.
Tight End
Top Play
Logan Thomas ($19) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Thomas is questionable, so keep an eye on the injury reports. In his return from a seven-game absence last week, Thomas played in 79% of the snaps and hauled in three of six targets for 31 yards. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Top Value
Foster Moreau ($11) vs. Washington Football Team
Darren Waller is out, so the Island of Moreau will be open once again. The last time he filled in for Waller, Moreau hauled in all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown.
Top Tournament Play
CJ Uzomah ($16) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This game has the highest total on the slate. Uzomah has received at least five targets in a game only twice this season, but he has two games with two touchdowns. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this season.
Defense
Top Play
Philadelphia Eagles ($18) @ New York Jets
Have you seen Zach Wilson play? Exactly.
Top Value
Baltimore Ravens ($12) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Have you seen Ben Roethlisberger play? I kid, I kid. It’s tough to run against the Ravens, so the offensive attack should tilt towards the passing game. The Ravens are 13th in pass rush and, while Ben has only thrown six interceptions on the season, he’s been sacked 24 times. He’s attempted at least 40 passes in each of the last two games, so there could be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies.
Tournament Play
Miami Dolphins ($14) vs. New York Giants
It feels a little point-chasey since the Dolphins just put up 23 Yahoo points last week. That said, they’ve produced double-digit Yahoo points in four games this season. They are especially tough at home and are on quite the heater over the last four games. They’ve held the Panthers, Jets, Ravens, and Texans to nine, 10, 17, and 10 points while racking up 16 sacks, four fumble recoveries, seven interceptions, and two touchdowns. Granted, that’s not a murderer’s row of offenses, but the Giants could be of a similar caliber. New York is 31st in pass blocking according to PFF, and Miami blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league.
